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Old 10-04-2012, 03:12 PM   #1
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Run Awayyy!!!

The junk bond market has just completely jumped the shark. New issue: CCC-rated bonds that are pay-in-kind (means the issuer can at its option pay coupons with more crappy bonds instead of cash) and with the proceeds paid out to shareholders. Investors really are idiots.

TEXT-S&P assigns Petco Holdings 'B' rating | Reuters
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:14 PM   #2
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I thought the Greek government had a patent on these kinds of things.
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:16 PM   #3
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I hope Vanguard high yield fund won't hold these. However everyone should realize the risks. It's not called junk for nothing.
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:34 PM   #4
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I hope Vanguard high yield fund won't hold these. However everyone should realize the risks. It's not called junk for nothing.
Yes, I'm curious what this means to the Fidelity and Vanguard 'junk' funds.

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Old 10-04-2012, 03:40 PM   #5
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I just looked up to see that Petco is a private company now. So, the bond proceeds go straight to the private owners as dividends, and not even to invest in the company. Nice!
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:47 PM   #6
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I had a sales guy in Brazil who wanted to wanted approval to sell a job to an iron ore company that proposed to pay us in iron ore pellets. I told him that if he was willing to take his salary and commission in iron ore, I might think about it. He never called me back.
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:48 PM   #7
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PIKs are back! Given that they did so well when issued by Drexel in the '80s, who could be surprised. Drexel Burnham Lambert - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 10-04-2012, 03:49 PM   #8
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http://us.ishares.com/product_info/f...erview/HYG.htm

I hold HYG, which appears to hold mostly B-something or the other grade...
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:17 PM   #9
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Who is buying this stuff??!?!
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Old 10-04-2012, 04:23 PM   #10
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Yes, I'm curious what this means to the Fidelity and Vanguard 'junk' funds.
Aren't the prospectuses (I looked it up to be sure it isn't prospecti) clear on that?
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Old 10-04-2012, 05:07 PM   #11
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Who is buying this stuff??!?!
I don't know of any billionaires who live in a group home, so I assume it is junk bond funds that are stuffed to the gills with cash from yield-chasing investors.
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Old 10-04-2012, 05:26 PM   #12
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Old 10-04-2012, 09:00 PM   #13
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re: Fidelity and Vanguard junk funds...

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Originally Posted by Tyro View Post
Aren't the prospectuses (I looked it up to be sure it isn't prospecti) clear on that?
Specific to this petco bond offering, yes. I was assuming (maybe incorrectly) that brewer was making a more general point about the junk market.

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Old 10-04-2012, 09:06 PM   #14
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Specific to this petco bond offering, yes. I was assuming (maybe incorrectly) that brewer was making a more general point about the junk market.

-ERD50
Actually, I was making a wider point. When we start seeing this kind of crap being issued, it means that terms and conditions on less egregious forms of jusnk have gotten very loose. If you continue to see this kind of garbage being issued, you know what is coming (junk market implosion). It is also a clear sign to start exiting junk funds. I can see changes in terms and conditions in individual bonds. You really cannot see it in funds. Caveat emptor, big time, from this point forward on junk. It will blow up, it is just a matter of time now.
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Old 10-04-2012, 09:20 PM   #15
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Junk or not, I think it is peculiar that a private company would sell bonds for its private owners to pocket as dividends.

I am not knowledgeable to tell if this is common practice, but is it not like people spending money that they take out of their home as a 2nd mortgage? Isn't that what the private owners of this company do, by pledging their company as collateral for the bonds? What if they walk away, like home owners did?

Do investors get to see the book and cash flow of this company? I guess they do, but I don't. The bond is for $550M. Is this company worth $550M? By the way, they paid $1.8B to take it private in 2006.
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Old 10-04-2012, 09:25 PM   #16
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... Caveat emptor, big time, from this point forward on junk. It will blow up, it is just a matter of time now.
I have no specific knowledge, but that does make sense to me. Junk is still paying a good yield (>6%) - where can you get that? Bonds and CDs are very low, stocks have had a big run up, getting people to think about re-balancing.

So that can lead to a bubble of people piling into junk. And bubbles burst.

I guess a good indication might be how much money is flowing into the big junk funds? IIRC, Vanguard closed their junk fund to new investors a few years back?

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Old 10-04-2012, 09:55 PM   #17
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Junk or not, I think it is peculiar that a private company would sell bonds for its private owners to pocket as dividends.

I am not knowledgeable to tell if this is common practice, but is it not like people spending money that they take out of their home as a 2nd mortgage? Isn't that what the private owners of this company do, by pledging their company as collateral for the bonds? What if they walk away, like home owners did?

Do investors get to see the book and cash flow of this company? I guess they do, but I don't. The bond is for $550M. Is this company worth $550M? By the way, they paid $1.8B to take it private in 2006.
You are getting the idea.

When this company was taken private, the bulk of the purchase price was almost certainly raised via borrowing money.
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Old 10-04-2012, 09:56 PM   #18
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I guess a good indication might be how much money is flowing into the big junk funds? IIRC, Vanguard closed their junk fund to new investors a few years back?

-ERD50
Funds flows have been significant into junk. Junk is a relatively small part of the bond market, so it does not take that much new money to make things frothy.
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Old 10-05-2012, 05:13 AM   #19
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Possible bond investments
US government bonds short term negative real interest rate
US government bond long term. interest and inflation rate risk, very slim but not 0 credit risk.
US TIPs short negative real rate, tiny positive long term rate.
US Corporate Investment grade short term 0 after tax yield, 2% long term real yield.
US High Yield run away
US Muni negative real rates short term interest/inflation rate long term.

I know very little about global bonds are there any opportunities overseas?
Cause for anything other long Muni and Long corporate bonds I think investing in US bonds is a heads, I lose a little (status quo) or tails a I lose a lot inflation.
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Old 10-05-2012, 10:15 AM   #20
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The junk bond market has just completely jumped the shark. New issue: CCC-rated bonds that are pay-in-kind (means the issuer can at its option pay coupons with more crappy bonds instead of cash) and with the proceeds paid out to shareholders. Investors really are idiots.
This is a joke, right?
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