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Run don't walk from this market
Old 06-06-2011, 02:01 PM   #1
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Run don't walk from this market

A long but interesting article about Bob Rodriguez's views of current market. This is the same contrarian who predicted tech bubble and 2008 mkt collapse.

Bob Rodriguez: The man who sees another crash - The Term Sheet: Fortune's deals blog Term Sheet

A quick summary is that he is not putting much money into bonds these days and has a large amt of fund invested in cash.
Most of know that Nat'l debt problem is going to have enormous consequences but if it's not bonds, what are safe alternatives? As a 46 getting ready to FIRE next year, choices have to be well thought out.
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Old 06-06-2011, 02:33 PM   #2
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His isn't an economic, or even a financial, argument; it's a political one. It's not a question of whether we can pay our bills, its whether we ultimately want to.

I believe Churchill is still correct:

"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
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Old 06-06-2011, 02:34 PM   #3
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Hi everyone
A long but interesting article about Bob Rodriguez's views of current market. This is the same contrarian who predicted tech bubble and 2008 mkt collapse.
I have to go out for a bit, then I will read this. I have never known him to be wrong. Some will say it's all luck; I think he knows what he is doing.

Ha
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Old 06-06-2011, 02:44 PM   #4
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Right twice, or once? Looks like his fund did well through the dot com bubble, but steeper than the S&P slide for the fund in 2008, though it's done nicely from the bottom I guess.

I'm still sleeping at night with the same old AA, but thanks...and you'll be right eventually.
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Old 06-06-2011, 03:26 PM   #5
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What is amazing to me is how quickly the dominant refrain has switched from positive to negative in just about every media outlet, online discussion, etc. Its like watching someone flip a switch.
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Old 06-06-2011, 03:44 PM   #6
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I'll agree that our problems aren't economic, they're political. Rodriguez is saying the same thing:

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The situation isn't irreparable; Rodriguez believes the government can keep rates from climbing too high if it starts making cuts of $350 billion to $500 billion per year. But he has little faith in its willingness to do so. If it were up to him, there would be serious tax reform, with all tax deductions (including mortgage interest) on the table. A former Republican, he describes himself as a "fiscal conservative but social moderate" who has grown disgusted with both parties: "I say, 'A pox on both their houses.'"
Will Churchill turn out to be right about Americans in the 1940s, but wrong about Americans in the 21st century?

One practical issue for an investor is finding a country that's doing better than the US (where investor's rights are reasonably safe).
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Old 06-06-2011, 03:46 PM   #7
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One practical issue for an investor is finding a country that's doing better than the US (where investor's rights are reasonably safe).
Chad?
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Old 06-06-2011, 04:03 PM   #8
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Will Churchill turn out to be right about Americans in the 1940s, but wrong about Americans in the 21st century?
I don't think so. Largely because the issues that are important to fiscal sustainability are long-term.

BTW, reducing the deficit by an additional $350-$500B annually (as he thinks is necessary or we're going to die) actually gets the near-term shortfall down to between 1%-3% of GDP, which is basically sustainable indefinitely. Entitlement reform will also be necessary, but can be phased in over several decades.

This ain't that hard (for anyone who actually cares to fix the problem).
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Old 06-06-2011, 04:11 PM   #9
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This ain't that hard.
Conceptually, no.

Politically it appears to be about as easy as reaching your arm around your head, grabbing your upper lip, and peeling upward until you scalp yourself (with apologies to Carol Burnett...).
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Old 06-06-2011, 04:14 PM   #10
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I monitor very carefully DW's company stock and I don't like what I see there. The action over the past 3-4 months reminds me of what was going on in early 2007.

This prompted me to liquidate my riskiest investments in May.
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Old 06-06-2011, 04:21 PM   #11
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Conceptually, no.

Politically it appears to be about as easy as reaching your arm around your head, grabbing your upper lip, and peeling upward until you scalp yourself (with apologies to Carol Burnett...).
I added a qualifier that it's not hard "for anyone who cares about fixing the problem."

For what it's worth, I don't believe the folks who are complaining the most loudly about our fiscal imbalance actually care about deficits. They're using it as an issue to push long-standing policy objectives that have nothing to do with deficits. And yes, that makes getting a deal on the deficit very, very hard.

Fortunately, we don't need an agreement. Existing law stabilizes the federal debt for the next 25 years. What politicians are really negotiating over is how much more we're going to increase spending or cut taxes versus what will happen under existing law. Maybe we'll all be better off if they don't come to an agreement.
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Old 06-06-2011, 04:23 PM   #12
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I'll agree that our problems aren't economic, they're political.
Yes, but it's important to consider the psychological state of investors too. As Brewer pointed out, the financial news seems to be suddenly doom and gloomish. The fear factor.
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Old 06-06-2011, 04:27 PM   #13
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The fear factor seems to be getting some help as the media gleefully gives an open mike to our sfb politicians as they run around blathering about debt, deficit and doom.
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Old 06-06-2011, 04:43 PM   #14
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Another buying/rebelancing opportunity.

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Old 06-06-2011, 04:51 PM   #15
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Another buying/rebelancing opportunity.

DD
I assume you are not retired with good income.Some of us retired people might be less sanguine about a possible major correction.
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Old 06-06-2011, 05:03 PM   #16
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I assume you are not retired with good income.Some of us retired people might be less sanguine about a possible major correction.
OK, but aside from a herd flight/technical mumbo-jumbo/dowsing rod indicators, where is said market disaster going to come from on a fundamental basis? A normal correction appears a given at this point, but more than that? The US is not going to default and the Germans will write checks to bail out Greece until doomsday.
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Old 06-06-2011, 05:12 PM   #17
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Dumb luck made me sell the last amount of funds in my retirement pool a week ago Friday (which was an up day) that are needed to give me three years worth of the cash I will need at that point (2017, first year I am eligible to withdraw from employer plan, and carries through 2019).

While I find it interesting, I am not qualified to hold forth about monetary policy, or market fundamentals, or any of it. Summertime, and the living is easy.
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Old 06-06-2011, 05:29 PM   #18
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For what it's worth, I don't believe the folks who are complaining the most loudly about our fiscal imbalance actually care about deficits. They're using it as an issue to push long-standing policy objectives that have nothing to do with deficits. And yes, that makes getting a deal on the deficit very, very hard.
Clearly folks on both sides of the debate are pushing longstanding policy objectives, and, yes, their conflicting objectives make it hard to reach a deal.
And yet, this is tautological. How could we cut the deficit (through any means) and not have it be the product of a policy choice? That's all it can be. The budget (how much the government takes from citizens and corporations, and how it is spent) is the single hard-numbers encapsulation of all material aspects of our governmental national priorities. The idea that we could somehow "keep politics out of it" is silly.
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Old 06-06-2011, 05:31 PM   #19
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OK, but aside from a herd flight/technical mumbo-jumbo/dowsing rod indicators, where is said market disaster going to come from on a fundamental basis? A normal correction appears a given at this point, but more than that? The US is not going to default and the Germans will write checks to bail out Greece until doomsday.
I believe there are fundamental reasons to be concerned. Time will tell in a relatively short period of time.
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Old 06-06-2011, 05:39 PM   #20
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The fear factor seems to be getting some help as the media gleefully gives an open mike to our sfb politicians as they run around blathering about debt, deficit and doom.
Another indicator that 24/7 news coverage is not such a good thing. Who watches good news? I miss the nightly news with Conkrite. Does that age me or what
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