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Old 08-28-2014, 08:13 PM   #21
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One word - Vodka

The finest distillery in Texas... Tito's. Stock up, soon.
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Old 08-28-2014, 08:15 PM   #22
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One word - Vodka

The finest distillery in Texas... Tito's. Stock up, soon.
I am far more concerned about the looming shortage of quality bourbon.
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Old 08-28-2014, 08:17 PM   #23
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Old 08-28-2014, 08:33 PM   #24
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I am far more concerned about the looming shortage of quality bourbon.
I cannot believe you would start that kind of fear mongering around here. Where are our moderators?!?!? (I may be a bit sensitive to this because of my own personal shortage at the moment.)

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How would you best play the market for maximum return in this probable scenario?
...
- Buy Gold
...
This is what I have done. Not so much to turn a quick profit (although, I would not turn that down) but rather to diversify my overall portfolio.

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...The major initial effect would probably be the opening of shipping natural gas to Europe which would cause USA natural gas prices to likely double or triple....
I am actually looking for a good way to gain natural gas exposure in my portfolio as another diversifier. So, I am watching this thread closely for good ideas in this space.
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Old 08-28-2014, 08:48 PM   #25
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I cannot believe you would start that kind of fear mongering around here. Where are our moderators?!?!? (I may be a bit sensitive to this because of my own personal shortage at the moment.)



This is what I have done. Not so much to turn a quick profit (although, I would not turn that down) but rather to diversify my overall portfolio.



I am actually looking for a good way to gain natural gas exposure in my portfolio as another diversifier. So, I am watching this thread closely for good ideas in this space.

I can't help you on the bourbon shortage. I have started to accumulate a stockpile, but there is a limit to that. Short of firing up your own still, it is a pickle.

As far as nat gas goes, I am a bull on the space. I am comfy picking individual players, but there is a really simple way to get exposure: FCG. A handy ETF that is stuffed with domestic nat gas players.
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Old 08-28-2014, 09:47 PM   #26
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I am still a fan of the beaten down mining sector, especially producers of copper and molybdenum with gold byproducts to help offset mining costs. I like FCX here and Thompson Creek (for a smaller player). Both could do quite well during a conflict because of metal pricing. I do not see copper demand falling anytime soon.
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Old 08-28-2014, 10:44 PM   #27
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I am still a fan of the beaten down mining sector, especially producers of copper and molybdenum with gold byproducts to help offset mining costs. I like FCX here and Thompson Creek (for a smaller player). Both could do quite well during a conflict because of metal pricing. I do not see copper demand falling anytime soon.
Isn't Copper artificially inflated because the china public is literally buying it and storing in place of gold. Cottage industry over there creating a copper bubble from what I hear.
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Old 08-29-2014, 06:27 AM   #28
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Ukraine's history has been so intertwined with Russia's over the century's that it's very hard for me to really get worked up over the deep cultural/sociological motivations behind current events other than think that Putin thinks "this is my lawn and everybody else stay off". Just in the recent past Soviet Premier Khrushchev was half Ukrainian and I think for centuries Russians have felt Ukraine is really part of mother Russia, Certainly it seems to me more like a local breakaway fight ( shades of 1861 ) than something the US ought to risk WWIII over.
I went to Ukraine shortly after it declared it independence in the early 1990. I couldn't help but notice that virtually everybody thought of themselves as Russians. Now imagine that a lot has changed in 20 years, but there is hundreds of year of history there. I heard that there are something like 20 million Ukrainian/Russian marriage in the region. Is there any wonder that many Ukrainian have affinity for Russia?

I am normally an interventionist and generally think the US can and does more good than harm in playing Team America: World Police. In this case, I am totally confused what what the objective the West is here.

We are expecting Russia to give back Crimea. Or are we expecting Putin to say it's cool if Ukraine joins the EU, and hell even NATO.

I hate picking fights we have no hope of winning. It wouldn't be so bad if we we just playing and losing a chess match with Putin, but at times I swear the west is playing checkers.
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Old 08-29-2014, 08:19 AM   #29
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I went to Ukraine shortly after it declared it independence in the early 1990. I couldn't help but notice that virtually everybody thought of themselves as Russians. Now imagine that a lot has changed in 20 years, but there is hundreds of year of history there. I heard that there are something like 20 million Ukrainian/Russian marriage in the region. Is there any wonder that many Ukrainian have affinity for Russia?

I am normally an interventionist and generally think the US can and does more good than harm in playing Team America: World Police. In this case, I am totally confused what what the objective the West is here.

We are expecting Russia to give back Crimea. Or are we expecting Putin to say it's cool if Ukraine joins the EU, and hell even NATO.

I hate picking fights we have no hope of winning. It wouldn't be so bad if we we just playing and losing a chess match with Putin, but at times I swear the west is playing checkers.
IMO, this is all about Europe's gas supply.
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Old 08-29-2014, 08:24 AM   #30
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Isn't Copper artificially inflated because the china public is literally buying it and storing in place of gold. Cottage industry over there creating a copper bubble from what I hear.
Antofagasta just cut its estimate for global copper surplus from 400,000 tons to 150,000 tons. A slight surplus in 2015, then tight market 2016 and beyond. It may be that the lower price of gold and molybdenum have delayed plans for new mines that depend on these metals to offset the cost of copper production.

I think we are well and gone from ever seeing $1.50 copper. In a similar fashion I don't think we will ever see $1 a gallon gas again.

Antofagasta Cuts Copper Surplus Figure on Mine Delays - Bloomberg
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Old 08-29-2014, 08:49 AM   #31
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I traveled through Ukraine last summer, entering in the west and driving the breadth of the country, including Donetsk and Luhansk, the center of the current fighting.

There is a distinct difference in the folks of Odessa and Kiev, which are btw beautiful cities. The folks we met there are very much Ukrainian, very friendly and very "Western". As we went further toward Russia and east, we found the folks more like typical Russians, reserved and less curious about foreigners, for the most part. I think that the people of the countryside where the fighting is, very much identify as Russian rather than Ukrainian, which complicates the situation.

I can say that it is sad that such an interesting and visually appealing place, full of people who really just want to live their lives and raise their families, have become pawns in a Russian power grab.
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Old 08-29-2014, 09:19 AM   #32
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I added to my position in GASFX a few weeks ago. Its a long term play, but who knows what will happen if Russia turns off the spigot to Europe.
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Old 08-29-2014, 11:09 AM   #33
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IMO, Ukraine will all be in Russia's hands sooner or later, and likely sooner. Who is going to go in there with troops to prevent this?

Ha
40 million Ukranians are not Czechs and Slovaks (1968 invasion). If Russia wants it it will me meat grinder for them. But who knows what somebody (Putin) who is comparable to Stalin or Hitler will do....

I am not gambler so I would not bet any trade on outcome of all of this.
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Old 08-29-2014, 02:01 PM   #34
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Seems to me that Putin is concerned about maintaining stability with a worsening economic situation in Russia for the lower socioeconomic groups.

So he is using H. L. Mencken's approach:

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The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
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Old 08-29-2014, 03:03 PM   #35
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Was lucky enough to spend quite a bit of time in Ukraine teaching over the course of a few years in the 2005-2009. Ethnic Ukrainians are definitely not Russians and seemed to me to identify more with the Poles. I always drew a smile from Ukrainians when I spoke of my Lithuanian grandfather. Eastern Ukraine has many more ethnic Russians and the current fighting is largely centered in the resource rich Donbas region which has Donetsk as its commercial center. Most of the ethnic Ukrainians that I knew from the Donetsk region have left for Kiev or the western portion of the country. Ironically, many of the ethnic Russians have also left, casting the votes with their feet that they will never be allowed to cast by ballot if Russia succeeds in taking the area. I would agree that the situation is much, much different than it was in 1968 for Czechoslovakia. The people in the 'non-Russian' portions of Ukraine are very unlikely to go quietly into that good night. They have seen what the possibilities are and the stark contrasts between them make it almost certain that they will strongly resist having their freedoms and children's futures taken away.
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Old 08-29-2014, 04:57 PM   #36
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I grew up in one of Slavic countries behind Iron Curtain.

Czechs will anything to protect immense beauty of Prague. This includes not fighting if it comes down to it.

Poles and Ukranians are willing to sacrifice destruction of their cities and will fight till death. We all have immense dislike for Russians. IMO current situation is very dangerous. I am surprised market is not 5% down.

This behaviour reminds me of Nazi Germany who wanted part of Czechoslovakia because 2 million Germans lived there. And we all know where this went........
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Old 08-29-2014, 05:29 PM   #37
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I grew up in one of Slavic countries behind Iron Curtain.

Czechs will anything to protect immense beauty of Prague. This includes not fighting if it comes down to it.

Poles and Ukranians are willing to sacrifice destruction of their cities and will fight till death. We all have immense dislike for Russians. IMO current situation is very dangerous. I am surprised market is not 5% down.

This behaviour reminds me of Nazi Germany who wanted part of Czechoslovakia because 2 million Germans lived there. And we all know where this went........

Ya, europe voiced there displeasure to hitler about the annexation, and that ended the problem. I'm sure a public letter of displeasure will putin will be equally effective.


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Old 08-29-2014, 07:00 PM   #38
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I grew up in one of Slavic countries behind Iron Curtain.

Czechs will anything to protect immense beauty of Prague. This includes not fighting if it comes down to it.

Poles and Ukranians are willing to sacrifice destruction of their cities and will fight till death. We all have immense dislike for Russians. IMO current situation is very dangerous. I am surprised market is not 5% down.

This behaviour reminds me of Nazi Germany who wanted part of Czechoslovakia because 2 million Germans lived there. And we all know where this went........
Very well put. These were my impressions of the Ukrainian people that I met there. I can't comment on the priorities of those in the former Czechoslovakia. I think that one of the issues these days in all parts of the world where there is not freedom and rule of law is that many who would have been the one's to stand and fight now simply take what they can and leave. And frankly, I have a hard time finding fault in that.
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Old 08-30-2014, 04:36 AM   #39
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OT but I'm hearing that Little Moscow on The Gulf of Thailand, er I mean Pattaya, has one third fewer Rusikies about.

Pity because the Russian and Chinese tourists always make we Americans look good by comparison

Back OT, I have a limit order in for OGZPY (Gazprom.) I don't see this going nuclear and Putin is too far in to tuck tail now.
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