I was thinking more along the lines of: In a hurricaine which would you rather be? At sea, in the storm, in a boat no matter HOW strong and sturdy it is? Or would you rather be safely onshore, inland?
Onshore, unless the boat was picked up by the hurricane and dropped on me...
It all goes back to not really arguing the long term benefits of the index and go fishing method...but the oft brought up discussion on entry points and valuation. Were I able to find a reasonably priced asset class with decent long term potential, I wouldnt be holding ~25% of my money in cash right now.
I think buying a broad large cap based index right now is a bad idea. Its been a bad idea for ~5 years now. If we go sideways 5 more years or get a 15-25% drop, I'll consider it a good idea again.
I have had excellent luck calling the 'tops'...I always get a little tingle of the "run away!!!" ilk. Bottoms are tougher to call for me, so I'm looking at a variety of indicators that have historically had some significance.
Theres a joke in that last paragraph, go ahead...