Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
S&P 500 has worst decade ever.
Old 02-07-2009, 01:35 PM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: New York
Posts: 898
S&P 500 has worst decade ever.

According to this Times piece, the S&P's real annualized return was -5.1% in the 10 years ended January 2009. That's the worst 10 years in its history.





http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/07/bu...2&ref=business
__________________

__________________
Money's just something you need in case you don't die tomorrow.
Maurice is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-07-2009, 04:18 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,616
Well, I guess that proves you can still retire no matter what the stock market does because there have been lots of FIREd folks showing up here for the last 10 years.
__________________

__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 04:29 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
Well, I guess that proves you can still retire no matter what the stock market does because there have been lots of FIREd folks showing up here for the last 10 years.
Unfortunately, the part that made this the worst 10 years in history is the last 6 months.

We were not doing too poorly until then.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 04:33 PM   #4
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: New York
Posts: 898
Yeah, keep in mind that graph isn't displaying return over time, its displaying 10 year annualized return over time. As recently as 24 months ago that number was ~5% or so.

And we certainly have seen people who had to go back to work in the last 6 months.

And a lot more who have pushed back their FIRE date.
__________________
Money's just something you need in case you don't die tomorrow.
Maurice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 04:38 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Whisper - psssst Wellesley to all your friends and then party til you puke.

After all going into 16th year of ER not getting any younger plus I've heard this vicious rumor you can't take it with you.

Next thing you know the dang market will go up the next ten years and just take all the fun out of being a really cheap ba bas - well you know.



heh heh heh - .

We all did notice that other pesky period 73-83 ish - right. That was a lot fun to dollar cost average thru. So in another 10-15 years we'll be ready for an uptick eh?
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 05:30 PM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 295
Well, Wall Street Better do whatever it can to Have a Very Good Next couple of Yrs and beyond if they expect to remain In Business..Seeing as besides myself, many others I've talked to are just going to hold on until get even and just about all but dump Equites, even if they only make 3% apy on bonds..which i doubt they will and more like 6-7% apy..

BTW..thru 2007, LT Treasuries had ave about 6% the previous 10 yrs, compounded out to being worth a total of over 80% and after 2008, it's now over +7.6% apy for the past 10 yrs and on a per $100k basis? Worth over $180,000 today

Guess who has done nothing but put his Money into LT treasuries all those past yrs? Allan GreenSpan.. The Sly Old Fox....LOL

Wonder how He's Felt since 2008 and they did over +22%?
even if they drop by -5 or 10% this yr, he's still way ahead of the game..for a 2 yr ave.
__________________
Dennis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 06:01 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,432
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis View Post
Well, Wall Street Better do whatever it can to Have a Very Good Next couple of Yrs and beyond if they expect to remain In Business..Seeing as besides myself, many others I've talked to are just going to hold on until get even and just about all but dump Equites,
All I ask is please let me dump mine before y'all dump yours.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 06:07 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,074
You guys are assuming those of us over the age of 50 will live long enough to "get even"? Optimists...

Dawg, why not take a dump now and avoid the rush?
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 07:13 PM   #9
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dennis View Post
Seeing as besides myself, many others I've talked to are just going to hold on until get even and just about all but dump Equites, even if they only make 3% apy on bonds..which i doubt they will and more like 6-7% apy..
These are probably the same people who were going to get out of tech stocks forever-- and never ever ever invest in precious metals or commodities again either.

So... anyone remember the 10-year periods where bond returns beat inflation?
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 07:57 PM   #10
Moderator Emeritus
CuppaJoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,866
Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick View Post
really cheap ba bas....
We've gotta get that one into the glossary ba but quick.


"Really cheap ba bas...."

I aspire to learn from the master.
__________________
CuppaJoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-07-2009, 08:02 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,432
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
You guys are assuming those of us over the age of 50 will live long enough to "get even"? Optimists...

Dawg, why not take a dump now and avoid the rush?
I know that is what you want, but I'm not. I'm going to hold and you guys will suffer right along with me until the end of of time. Hold stocks that is. Heh heh heh
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2009, 06:31 AM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
I lost about 75% of my assets in 73/74 - fortunately I didn't start with much but I learned to be a little more conservative and diversified. I kept buying stocks in my various thrift plans and it's grown to a decent sum despite its violent ups and downs even considering the 2008 swoon.

There's a lot of woulda, coulda, shoulda going on. After every big drop I hear people saying that they're never going to buy stocks again. They're going to put everything into Treasuries, etc. I don't personally know anyone that really did it. They may have bailed out but at some point they see the market going up and hear about all the money people are making. They buy back in and successfully missed most or all of the recovery.

If I knew what was going to happen I'd certainly take advantage of it. Unfortunately, I don't. Fortunately, I know I don't. I am glad I went to 40% cash/CD in 2007 but that was more a strategic realignment of my portfolio in anticipation of retirement. My cash is now about 55% but the $ amount is the "basic retirement" cash funding needed.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2009, 06:47 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Tadpole's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,169
Human nature, on average, will follow the money. Many people who say they will get out will ride it day by day thinking one more dollar. People already out will, unfortunately, get in late as they abandon assets losing to inflation hoping to make more in the market. The latter will also get back out too late again. Isn't it all fun? If what I say isn't what happens then human nature is one of the only things more unpredictable than the market. Where are those behavioral economists placing their bets?
__________________
Tadpole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2009, 07:48 AM   #14
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: New York
Posts: 898
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords View Post
So... anyone remember the 10-year periods where bond returns beat inflation?

Do tell...
__________________
Money's just something you need in case you don't die tomorrow.
Maurice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2009, 08:17 AM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
FIRE'd@51's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,315
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords View Post
So... anyone remember the 10-year periods where bond returns beat inflation?
I don't have the monthly data, but on a year-end basis, long-term treasuries have beaten inflation (CPI) every 10-year period since 1974-1984.
__________________
FIRE'd@51 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2009, 06:44 PM   #16
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIRE'd@51 View Post
I don't have the monthly data, but on a year-end basis, long-term treasuries have beaten inflation (CPI) every 10-year period since 1974-1984.
Well, I really was asking a question and not administering a pop quiz.

My imperfect memory of Dimson & Marsh (which I'm going to have to look up) is that stocks outperformed inflation in every 10-year period of the 20th century while bonds had a significant number of 10-year periods where inflation won.

I can't remember if that data took taxes into account. For example, there's this post (which popped up on a Google search):
Coward's Portfolio

And pages 11-12 of this PDF, although it's not broken down into 10-year rolling periods:
http://it.csam.com/it/documents/EU_T...020308_eng.pdf

Given the average recession of 12-24 months three or four times out of at least 30 years of retirement, I'd find it hard to forsake stocks for bonds. But by gosh we can sure put those short-term returns under a microscope, especially when we're still within the 12-24 month period.

As for long-term Treasuries, your claim is significantly at odds with the behavior of my parents-in-law and their 100% Treasury/CD portfolio. But they've only been doing that for about 8-10 years.
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2009, 06:59 PM   #17
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick View Post
Whisper - psssst Wellesley to all your friends and then party til you puke.

After all going into 16th year of ER not getting any younger plus I've heard this vicious rumor you can't take it with you.

Next thing you know the dang market will go up the next ten years and just take all the fun out of being a really cheap ba bas - well you know.



heh heh heh - .

We all did notice that other pesky period 73-83 ish - right. That was a lot fun to dollar cost average thru. So in another 10-15 years we'll be ready for an uptick eh?
Wellesley was fown 10 percent last year and is down nearly 5 percent this year, so, why is Wellesley so great?
__________________
Marcretire is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2009, 07:05 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcretire View Post
Wellesley was fown 10 percent last year and is down nearly 5 percent this year, so, why is Wellesley so great?
I don't own Wellesley but my balanced portfolio was down 25% in 2008 and I'm down about 3% so far in 2009. I would have been better off in Wellesly.

I don't like bond funds but Wellesley is heavy in fixed income. That shielded it from a lot of the stock fund decline.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2009, 09:00 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcretire View Post
Wellesley was fown 10 percent last year and is down nearly 5 percent this year, so, why is Wellesley so great?
You are kidding right? The second worse economic conditions in the last 100+ years and you don't think a balanced fund that only dropped 15% is good. I'd love to have my portfolio down only 15 percent instead of 30%.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-08-2009, 09:05 PM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
73ss454's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,378
clifp, I guess to someone in all CD's, 15% down is bad. I also wish I had I held more of it.
__________________

__________________
73ss454 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Best & Worst J*b You Ever Had (Have) freebird5825 Other topics 74 01-13-2009 04:54 PM
Worst year ever for the S&P.... ziggy29 FIRE and Money 56 11-22-2008 05:03 PM
Portfolio w/ S&P 500 ferco FIRE and Money 3 11-11-2008 12:52 AM
S & O 500 and dividends Cadence FIRECalc support 1 04-18-2007 09:22 PM
S&P 500 Down 72% ?? grumpy FIRE and Money 5 12-23-2004 03:25 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:08 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.