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Old 06-09-2008, 05:26 PM   #21
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OK... I have to ask. Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?
Yes big time.
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Old 06-09-2008, 05:31 PM   #22
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Why worry about running out of money. Really you are allowed to end it whenever you want..Unless death beats you to the punch.
Yeah, why don't you go for the GSW to the head first. If it looks quick and painless on you, I'll consider that a solution.
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Old 06-09-2008, 05:39 PM   #23
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Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?
Absolutely.
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Old 06-09-2008, 05:40 PM   #24
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Yeah, why don't you go for the GSW to the head first. If it looks quick and painless on you, I'll consider that a solution.
Sorry don't know what GSW is. Maybe you should spell it out
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Old 06-09-2008, 08:52 PM   #25
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We're also cherry picking (or whatever the opposite of cherry picking is) the date. If you retired near the peak of the bubble, you've had flat returns or even negative returns. If, however, you retired a couple years later, your returns would be much better. If you retired a couple years earlier, your returns would be much better. The late 90's bubble distorts things a lot and as we get closer to the 10-yr anniversary our 10-yr average total returns will reflect that.
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Old 06-09-2008, 09:03 PM   #26
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Since ATS5G was kind enough to give us the link to this site: Political Calculations: The S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

it's easy to get the answer.

The real, total return from 4-99 thru 4-08 was a positive 0.99%.
However, if you look at the 8 years from 4-00 thru 4-08, you get a negative 2.03%.

I didn't look for the crossover point.
If you believe the BS inflation numbers that is true. With John Williams unfudged inflation numbers you are getting hit. Which best fits tonights headline stories on the Nightly News?
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Old 06-09-2008, 10:50 PM   #27
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Yeah, why don't you go for the GSW to the head first. If it looks quick and painless on you, I'll consider that a solution.
The disgusting mess that it would leave behind is enough to keep me from doing that.

Ha
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Old 06-10-2008, 10:30 AM   #28
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OK... I have to ask. Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?
You betcha. I made a ton of money on california real estate, plenty on reits and emerging markets, and turned nearly 14% a year annualized.

But then again, I wasnt just sitting in the s&p 500.
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Old 06-10-2008, 07:44 PM   #29
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You betcha. I made a ton of money on california real estate, plenty on reits and emerging markets, and turned nearly 14% a year annualized.

But then again, I wasnt just sitting in the s&p 500.
So where are you invested right now so that we may all track your progress going forward and profit? I also made a lot of money in the past but I mostly attribute my success to being lucky. I'd hate to be left behind while sitting in the s&p500.
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Old 06-10-2008, 08:48 PM   #30
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OK... I have to ask. Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?
Good heavens, yes!!! I am presently earning 175% of my salary in 2000. At that time I had nothing in savings and a junk car that only worked sporadically. I was living in an apartment which was much smaller than the house I bought and paid off between then and now. I had nothing in retirement or taxable accounts. I had no focus then and didn't know where I was going financially.

But I am not so sure the difference was a result of economic dynamics - - I think it was a result of recovering from my divorce emotionally and financially, developing in my career, and getting my life together. And then recently other factors have helped as well.
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Old 06-10-2008, 08:57 PM   #31
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OK... I have to ask. Are you better off than you were 8 years ago?

Yes , The tech melt down took a chunk of my money but I recovered and like CFB I made some money in real estate ,Reit's and Energy . Plus I'm retired and living the good life and I have a beautiful grandson !
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Old 06-10-2008, 09:24 PM   #32
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OK lets great real. How many retired 8 yrs. ago and have been living on at least 50% from assets. How happy are you.

I'll vote first. I'm happy .

Many who retired at that time are back to work.
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Old 06-11-2008, 08:00 AM   #33
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O.K., I know it's had it's ups and downs, but the S&P is trading in a range about where it was June of '99. I think best case the dividends are cancelled out by inflation, does this mean in real terms it's had 0% return for the last 9 years, or am I missing something? How does this compare to the bad times in the 60's and 70's? How are those of you who are retired doing, how's the portfolio balance? NASDAQ looks flat for that time period, too, although Russell 2000 is up a decent amount.
Hi,

If you had diversified into US Small cap, int'l small cap, REITs, commodity futures and so forth, the returns would have been quite different and positive.

US TSM or Int'l TSM only doesn't diversify like it use to. Bogle's "TSM is sufficient diversification" is dated advice and overly simplistic.

Petey
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Old 06-11-2008, 10:01 AM   #34
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Hi,

If you had diversified into US Small cap, int'l small cap, REITs, commodity futures and so forth, the returns would have been quite different and positive.

US TSM or Int'l TSM only doesn't diversify like it use to. Bogle's "TSM is sufficient diversification" is dated advice and overly simplistic.

Petey
If you had purchased credit default swaps on Countrywide you would be an effing billionaire.

What were you thinking?

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Old 06-14-2008, 04:11 AM   #35
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My portfolio has done better than flat, not only due to diversification but also ongoing contributions as I took advantage of the lows. But I was just curious about those in the withdrawal phase. A 4.13% return isn't much if that doesn't factor in inflation. With a 4% withdrawal rate, you are down over ten years. Also, ten years is June '98, 98 to 99 was an excellent year, I'll be curious to see what the 10 year return looks like next year. I was just thinking this is definitely times that try an ER's soul.
There are all kinds of complexities within this. For example, most savvy investors will rebalance annually, so even those in the withdrawal phase will be putting more into the S&P when prices are low.

But yes, if you just look at the two points in time, most people would agree that right now investors in the S&P are not very happy about the current status of their holdings. However, many of those same people have a long-term horizon, so these ups and downs don't bother them...which is where I fit in.

I just hope it goes up over the next 5 years or so, that's when I want to significantly reduce my stock exposure so I can retire.
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