Scott Burns- The Good 'ol Days

[Marshac]

I read an interesting column this weekend by Scott Burns about the past, and future of the "west" in the world market.

The column can be found here, but free registration is required:

http://archives.seattletimes.nwsourc...&date=20041226

He gives supporting data, but this pretty much sums it up

Quote:

Huntington concludes: "It appears probable that for most of history, China had the world's largest economy. The diffusion of technology and the economic development of non-Western societies in the second half of the 20th century are now producing a return to the historical pattern. This will be a slow process, but by the middle of the 21st century, if not before, the distribution of economic product and manufacturing output among the leading civilizations is likely to resemble that of 1800. The 200-year Western 'blip' on the world economy will be over."

If the west is declining (or perhaps stagnating as the 'east' overtakes), what do you folks think would be the most effective means of hedging your assets? How about profiting? Are there any existing funds which would accomplish any of the afore mentioned goals?

[ESRBob]

There are lots of ways to invest overseas in emerging markets. The biggest hurdle is getting over the psychology of being in these relatively riskier (short term, but who knows?) investments. If you think enron is bad, things can be even wilder and woollier in these developing asian countries, where many of the companies are family controlled.

Things have been pretty good in the past few years in emerging markets, but I also held these things through the 90s when they seemed to lose money every year.

If they are part of a diversified portfolio of equities, though, my sense is the risk can be managed. Over the long run, even if Scott Burns is only a little right, I harbor the belief that these will prove to be safer investments than US equities. Let's check back in 30 years and have a good laugh about what actually happened!

[Michael]

Quote:

If the west is declining (or perhaps stagnating as the 'east' overtakes), what do you folks think would be the most effective means of hedging your assets?

If China starts producing several times what the United States does, it is likely that their military will become the world's dominant super power. *I am pondering the implications.