Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 06:01 AM   #1
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 45
secular bear market

I gather from a recent discussion that the notion that the stock market is currently in a secular bear market is an unfamiliar one. This article for financial planners presents the case:
http://tinyurl.com/ojkmj

__________________

__________________
NYCGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 10:32 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Pasadena CA
Posts: 2,695
Re: secular bear market

Interesting article. The Fed Model is fairly popular right now and that would indicate that stocks are not overvalued right now. I am not sure if we are in some kind of bear market right now but as I am still in the accumulation phase I am not as concerned as if I were in the withdrawal phase. I would rather get into and start out of a recession before I retire in the next year or two.
__________________

__________________
T.S. Eliot:
Old men ought to be explorers
yakers is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 11:54 AM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: secular bear market

Seems like pretty faulty logic to me.

1) If we manipulate the stock market data in a certain way, we might assume that we are in a secular bear market.

2) If we are in a secular bear market, the market will provide below average performance for some time.

3) We don't know how much below average or how long, but it could be a lot for a long time -- or maybe not.

4) Indexing will only provide market returns.

5) So you should use active management.

Notice how point 5 has nothing to do with the first 4 points.

I wonder what their motives are? :
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 11:57 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: secular bear market

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgeeeee
Seems like pretty faulty logic to me.*

1) If we manipulate the stock market data in a certain way, we might assume that we are in a secular bear market.

2) If we are in a secular bear market, the market will provide below average performance for some time.

3) We don't know how much below average or how long, but it could be a lot for a long time -- or maybe not.

4) Indexing will only provide market returns.

5) So you should use active management.

Notice how point 5 has nothing to do with the first 4 points.

I wonder what their motives are?* *:
I think they got their "logic" from *****.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 12:03 PM   #5
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 717
Re: secular bear market

by Kenneth R. Solow, CFP, CLU, ChFC, and Michael E. Kitces, MSFS, CFP, CLU, ChFC, REBC, RHU, CASL

While I thought we were in a secular bear market, after seeing who agrees with me, I'm reevaluating my position.
__________________
Random Reinforcement is Highly Addictive.
riskadverse is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 12:16 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: secular bear market

Quote:
Originally Posted by riskaverse
by Kenneth R. Solow, CFP, CLU, ChFC, and Michael E. Kitces, MSFS, CFP, CLU, ChFC, REBC, RHU, CASL

While I thought we were in a secular bear market, after seeing who agrees with me, I'm reevaluating my position.*
Jeez, I thought I knew a lot of the acronyms, but these guys have a whole unfamiliar alphabet soup! Lets see:

CFP = Certified Financial Planner
CLU = Chartered Life Underwriter
ChFC = Chartered Financial Consultant

No clue what the others are.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 12:39 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: secular bear market

Nobody knows and systems that backtest to fit history 9 out of 15 times or 15 out of 9 times arent worth the paper they're printed on.

Good planning and asset allocation, stay the course, dont freak out, and dont try to time the market or guess whats going to happen.

If you're spending your life paranoid about what might happen, its a life wasted.

Cute n' Fuzzy Bunny, BSA, FBI, CS, LE, FOS, YNGT
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 01:10 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
Re: secular bear market

CASL is our local youth soccer league (Capital area soccer league). Not sure what that has to do with financial planning.


__________________
justin is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 01:22 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: secular bear market

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute n' Fuzzy Bunny

Cute n' Fuzzy Bunny, BSA, FBI, CS, LE, FOS, YNGT
Hmmm, lemme try:

BSA = Bull Sh!tters' Anonymous
FBI = Fcuking Big Idiot or Fan Belt Inspector
CS = Crumb Sniffer
LE = Little Egg
FOS = Full Of Spam (well, you know...)
YNGT = You'll Never Get Tired
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 01:30 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: secular bear market

You only got near on the FOS...close on the BSA.

Shoot...now I forget what LE was for... oh yeah...now I remember...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 07:28 PM   #11
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 45
Re: secular bear market

Quote:
Originally Posted by yakers
The Fed Model is fairly popular right now and that would indicate that stocks are not overvalued right now.
As perhaps you know, there has been a lot of criticism of the "Fed Model", i.e. what we think Greenspan was thinking. For example, Asness found it to be a poor predictor or long-term returns (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=381480).

I found the other responses to be disappointing in quality. I was hoping for more thoughtful rebuttals. Sorry if I overestimated the crowd here.
__________________
NYCGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 07:46 PM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: secular bear market

Quote:
Originally Posted by NYCGuy
. . . Sorry if I overestimated the crowd here.
That's okay. We've been overestimated by far more sophisticated investors than you.
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 07:55 PM   #13
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,617
Re: secular bear market

Quote:
Originally Posted by NYCGuy
I found the other responses to be disappointing in quality.* I was hoping for more thoughtful rebuttals.* Sorry if I overestimated the crowd here.
Does the quality of the responses depend on the degree to which they agree with your post?

First you insult the quality of the responses, then you dangle a word with the syllable "butt" in it like a dead chicken over a pond full of crocodiles.* I don't see you doing much to raise the overall average of the quality of your responses, either!

Maybe you need to spend more time over at Greaney's board.*
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 10:10 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wildcat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Lou-evil
Posts: 2,025
Re: secular bear market

From the article

"The key point of this article is that relying solely on a passive strategic portfolio designed to produce near-benchmark returns in a secular bear market will do nothing but guarantee that clients will underperform long-term expectations for an extended period of time and make it likely that they will fail to achieve their financial planning goals."

How would your chances be any better with any of those strategies? The 'concetrated portfolio' theory may be the only one I would give any weight to out all the ones listed.


__________________
"These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"
wildcat is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 10:13 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: secular bear market

I would have deep concerns about the reliability of any material written by someone named "Asness". Is that a name or a title, as in "Yes, Your Asness".

I have a thoughtful rebuttal. Two words. Four letters in the first word. Three letters in the second word. You pick.

I'm gravely disappointed that nobody wanted to try to decipher my qualifications. Lets see if I can remember them.

BSA = Bullshit artist
FBI = female body inspector
CS = cub scout
LE = liar extraordinaire
FOS = full of ****
YNGT = you'll never get this
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 10:21 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,117
Re: secular bear market

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute n' Fuzzy Bunny
BSA = Bull**** artist
FBI = female body inspector
CS = cub scout
LE = liar extraordinaire
FOS = full of ****
YNGT = you'll never get this
I found your qualifications to be disappointing in quality. I was hoping for more thoughtful acronyms. Sorry if I overestimated your capabilites here. :P


__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 10:39 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: secular bear market

The wife was holding the baby and tapping her foot as we were supposed to be out the door to look at tile samples. Best I could do under duress and with 15 seconds to come up with something.

Tell you what, i'll take 20% off your bill for the nuisance. Will that be cash or charge?
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 10:57 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
maddythebeagle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,450
Re: secular bear market

15 secs. is good. I think there is a guarantee....derail a ridiculous or a troll thread in 30 sec. or less or the next pithy retort is free of beaver or booby references.
__________________
- Hurry! to the cliffs of insanity!
maddythebeagle is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 11:02 PM   #19
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 942
Re: secular bear market

I don't see the need for the degrading "tone" here. *I think NYGuy posted a most interesting article for you to read, that merited some serious discussion, and not the dribble that was posted. *

Not that I am in any way opposed to humour, but I saw no humour in the responces anyway. *Perhaps, the article has some very good advise and is correct in it's assumptions. *Those who refuse to even "consider" it's merit, may live to regret it.
__________________
modhatter is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: secular bear market
Old 03-08-2006, 11:09 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,293
Re: secular bear market

Quote:
a pond full of crocodiles
Nords, that is a pretty good description of this board, for my money.

Ed The Troll
Who almost behaved himself today.
__________________

__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
talking myself into the benefits of a bear market runchman FIRE and Money 8 03-22-2007 09:42 AM
Another Bear Market Looming? Rosalita FIRE and Money 74 07-14-2006 10:45 AM
A Bear Market In Bonds yakers FIRE and Money 6 03-11-2006 05:06 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:02 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.