Secular Stagnation

[Amethyst]

I am afraid I hear little pigs' trotters approaching. I didn't mean to start a thread about the immigration issue; we won't solve it here. I'm first generation American, myself, and of course I don't support anyone's breaking the law.

Amethyst

 

[M Paquette]

Let me get this straight.

You folks are worried that our economy may become stagnant because undocumented workers are taking all the good jobs washing dishes, picking strawberries, and weeding yards, and somehow that income isn't moving through the economy.

Um. Yeah.

There is a segment of economic actors who get substantial income, more than everybody else in the economy combined, but who do not put much of that income back in motion through the economy. There's another big segment which puts much of their income toward debt service, which does not currently help economic activity, although it did help years ago when they were drawing that debt.

Neither of these two segments are bussing tables or mowing lawns, nor are they likely to be immigrants of any sort.

 

[razztazz]

You folks are worried that our economy may become stagnant because undocumented workers are taking all the good jobs washing dishes, picking strawberries, and weeding yards, and somehow that income isn't moving through the economy.
Um. Yeah.

Not implying any intent on your part but just wanting to clarify my own previous post. I for one agree with you. Although cheap labor at the bottom can have an effect on generally suppressing wages throughout the totem pole, all the illegals are not keeping Ralph Kramden from driving his bus or Fred McMurray from designing airplanes, or Mr Howell from milking his cow.

 

[pb4uski]

Most of those folks immigrated when we didn't have irrational quotas. This nation was founded on fighting tyrannical laws. Ignoring irrational laws and fighting current injustice upholds that tradition. That's a matter of history, not an opinion. I consider it a fine tradition, which is admittedly my opinion.

"irrational quotas" is just your opinion, and we'll defend your right to express it. We are a country that adheres to rule of law. Those allegedly irrational quotas are the law. If you don't like them then lobby to get the quotas changed. I think many of us would agree that the process is broke and not working right, but the solution is change, not breaking the law.

 

[GravitySucks]

I wonder if some of this reduced consumer demand was very predictable consequence of the Great Recession, similar to how our parent's generation reacted to the Great Depression. While it will undoubtedly result in slower growth, my hope is it will result in more sustainable growth as well and less consumer excess than in the past. I think more LBYMing and saving by the masses would be good even though it will have a adverse impact on economic growth.

+1. That is what I was thinking while listening. There was a lesson learned about both debt and lending that hadn't been demonstrated for a while.
I personally think the short attention span and the fact little punishment came down on those that profited will keep it a less than 'secular' time frame though.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

 

[RobLJ]

Um, so why is this particular pundit being featured just right now? The bullcrap echo chamber that is the media operates 24/7 I guess...

YMMV, but Martin Wolf's columns in Financial Times are well worth reading, if you are interested in the European economy, and the fact that Europe is at the point of deflation makes it timely--to some.

YMMV, particularly if you don't care about Europe.

 

[Birchwood]

Legal or illegal, a group of people are always going to come here if there are jobs to be filled, that we Americans would not take or if there is as demand for it, that is not being satisfied. Think agriculture!
I have been doing a lot of road trips, and everywhere I go, I see a lot of people who are not like us, busy working their tail off, so that we can enjoy our middle class life style. I'm of course not sure if they're illegal, but a lot of them don't speak English. I also don't want to use Hispanics as scapegoats.
I read 40% of illegals arrive thru an airport, not crossing the border by land.
They came legally and overstayed. So closing the land borders will not help much.

 

[robnplunder]

For every illegal immigrant not filing tax, there is an employer benefiting from exploiting their labor. This is so prevalent in our society that if we magically remove all the illegal immigrants from US, many business will fail and the US economy will collapse. Ditto for Made In China products. If we magically remove all M-I-China products from our store shelves, inflation will go through the roof and economy can go haywire.

 

[Birchwood]

Agree with Robnplunder.
I don't think there is any real solution as long as the other countries are so poor, and US is relatively more prosperous. There will always be people willing to try to come, legal or not. BTW, I agree if we magically make this folks get lost, the whole US economy will suffer. If we get rid of all foreign born health care workers in US, we are going to have a health catastrophe.
It is almost the same in Europe, in a recent trip some of the folks I saw doing menial job are immigrants(legal or not) I don't know.

 

[CaliforniaMan]

Legal or illegal, a group of people are always going to come here if there are jobs to be filled, that we Americans would not take or if there is as demand for it, that is not being satisfied. Think agriculture!
I have been doing a lot of road trips, and everywhere I go, I see a lot of people who are not like us, busy working their tail off, so that we can enjoy our middle class life style. I'm of course not sure if they're illegal, but a lot of them don't speak English. I also don't want to use Hispanics as scapegoats.
I read 40% of illegals arrive thru an airport, not crossing the border by land.
They came legally and overstayed. So closing the land borders will not help much.

+1 That is why they are called undocumented rather than illegal. They came legally to engage in legal activities but overstayed their visa. Now here is the kicker, extending visas, upgrading your status and immigration law itself is very expensive for most of these people. Not only for the Immigration fees (the department is so much funded by fees it did not even have to shut down when other departments did), also legal fees for lawyers especially for people who's native language is not English. Hey, the forms are difficult even if your native language is English, and you do have college degrees. And figuring out what forms you need is another gotcha. Make one mistake, and you start all over, and often pay again. And the agency is so underfunded, you submit forms and then you hear nothing sometimes for many months. They contact you only when they are good and ready. They don't return phone calls, often there is no phone to call. Many who could stay here legally simply cannot understand or afford the process. Put on top of that employers, knowing their documentation is less than perfect can easily take advantage of them, knowing they have no legal recourse. Rather than being called "illegals" many should simply be called "screwed".

 

[ERD50]

+1 That is why they are called undocumented rather than illegal. They came legally to engage in legal activities but overstayed their visa.

And at that point, they are breaking the law, right? That's called 'illegal'.

I'm not commenting on what should be or not, just what is.

Now here is the kicker, ... Hey, the forms are difficult even if your native language is English, and you do have college degrees. And figuring out what forms you need is another gotcha. Make one mistake, and you start all over, and often pay again. ... you submit forms and then you hear nothing sometimes for many months. They contact you only when they are good and ready. ...

Sounds like the IRS! Yet, if I don't file my taxes, I'm breaking the law. Not understanding the forms (which IMO, are not written in 'English' - at least not the kind most English speakers can understand).

Again, I'm not defending the current laws, but we can't say we aren't breaking them just because we may not agree with them.

-ERD50

 

[photoguy]

And at that point, they are breaking the law, right? That's called 'illegal'.

For as long as I can remember people have used the term "illegal immigrant" but recently there's been a big push to avoid it. Part of the justification (perhaps the main justification?) is because using the term "illegal" to describe a person is considered dehumanizing and that the term is not used in other areas (e.g. we don't call people with traffic violations "illegal drivers").

NPR had an interesting perspective in a recent article:

Jonathan Rosa, a linguistic anthropologist at the University of Massachusetts, told NPR that both phrases muddle the conversation about immigration reform.

" 'Undocumented' and 'illegal' seem to be signaling one's stance when it comes to immigration reform than it is about characterizing the situation in a precise way," Rosa said. He said the State Department's definition of immigrant explicitly refers to lawful status, making the term "illegal immigrant" a contradiction. But undocumented immigrant doesn't quite fit either because the term "makes it seem as though there's [just been] an administrative mistake, as if a document wasn't issued."

In Immigration Debate, 'Undocumented' Vs. 'Illegal' Is More Than Just Semantics : It's All Politics : NPR

I agree with Rosa that undocumented doesn't seem like an accurate description either.

Later in the same article Rosa suggests using the term "unauthorized migrant". It seems like an accurate description that is less loaded than the other terms (I can accept that description).

 

[MichaelB]

"What's in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet."

 

[ERD50]

"What's in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet."

I think the food marketing industry would disagree with old Willy.

"Pink Slime" anyone?

-ERD50

 

[Andre1969]

Not implying any intent on your part but just wanting to clarify my own previous post. I for one agree with you. Although cheap labor at the bottom can have an effect on generally suppressing wages throughout the totem pole, all the illegals are not keeping Ralph Kramden from driving his bus or Fred McMurray from designing airplanes, or Mr Howell from milking his cow.

And in keeping in that vein, when they let Little Emanuel go down at the loading dock, suddenly Archie Bunker, Stretch Cunningham, and Black Elmo had to work a LOT harder...because Little Emanuel worked his butt off while the others slacked off, told dumb jokes, etc...

I don't know if there's any merit to this, but I've heard a lot of illegals end up getting low-wage jobs with fake ID's and such, and actually do pay into Social Security. But, their intent is to move back to their home country long before they reach retirement age. So many of them are paying into it, but will never collect.

 

[robnplunder]

I don't know if there's any merit to this, but I've heard a lot of illegals end up getting low-wage jobs with fake ID's and such, and actually do pay into Social Security. But, their intent is to move back to their home country long before they reach retirement age. So many of them are paying into it, but will never collect.

Yes, I've heard this from someone who ran a convenient store. But I guess this is a very small portion compared to the rest. Many small business hire these folks and pay cash (often below minimum wage). By product of this is that they bring down wages for people working legally.

Some years ago, I hired a contractor to do some work on my back yard. He brought two Hispanic men hanging around Home Depot looking for work to do the job. My assumption was that they were illegals. They were not! They have working permit and everything and ended up suing the contractor for unfair wage practice.

 

[Options]

Mr. Wolf's views are in direct contradiction to studies conducted by the CIA, the British equivalent of the CIA, and the OECP. I'm old enough to remember this same doom and gloom being spewed around in the 1970's. Predictions aren't worth the time it takes to read them.

 

[Chuckanut]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't all those people legally immigrate to the US?

For me, there is a huge difference between someone who follows the rules and comes here legally, and someone who enters illegally. That's a matter of law, not an opinion.

-ERD50

Absolutely! Did I miss that difference when reading the posts? If so, I apologize. I do not agree with the tendency to mix legal and illegal immigrants as though they are one group. It makes about as much sense as combining alcoholics and occasional social drinkers together.

 

[Walt34]

Predictions aren't worth the time it takes to read them.

Indeed, not different from market timing, the futility of which most here recognize.