Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 05-18-2012, 07:19 AM   #21
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DFW_M5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 4,982
Someone in the investment business told me that most of the sells of late have been coming from individual investors, while the institutions are doing the buying. If thats true, maybe its time to deploy some dry powder. Nevertheless, this has come pretty close to a correction as happened last August.
__________________

__________________
DFW_M5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 05-18-2012, 07:41 AM   #22
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moemg View Post
I did not get out but I harvested some gains which I have done every time the Whee has been mentioned . It is the most reliable signal I have found .
+1 (I did the same)...

BTW, three years ago (in the spring), I sold off GMNA's and the equity side both last/this spring. I have no idea where the (future) market is going, but I "harvest" my gains when it makes sense.
__________________

__________________
rescueme is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 08:58 AM   #23
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 944
I finally sold some "dog" funds(very little return+very reactive) I had purchased years ago and sold them near there 5 year peak. That worked out to about a years worth of cash. Feeling good about that now! I have a feeling we are gonna see more carnage this summer....but who knows.
__________________
Freed at 49. You only live once - live it
Donzo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 10:37 AM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: 19th Hole
Posts: 2,535
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard8655 View Post
The market is making me nervous. Should have sold in April or early May, but stayed invested. Since then, every day seems to bring more bad news and another drop. Greece, Italy, and now Spain impacting world markets, China slowdown. Today was another 2% down.

I wonder for those here still invested, are you're able to turn a blind eye to all this, or are your nerves rattled yet and ready to sell?
The market has never made me nervous and I can honestly say I have never lost a minute of sleep over the gyrations of the stock market. I truly believe if you have a sound plan, stick with it and don't let your emotions get the best of you, all will be OK. As someone once said, we are our own worst enemy and I do think in most people's cases that is true.
__________________
A totally unblemished life is only for saints.
frayne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 11:45 AM   #25
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Chicago suburbs
Posts: 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne View Post
The market has never made me nervous and I can honestly say I have never lost a minute of sleep over the gyrations of the stock market. I truly believe if you have a sound plan, stick with it and don't let your emotions get the best of you, all will be OK. As someone once said, we are our own worst enemy and I do think in most people's cases that is true.
Well, that sounds like the state of mind we'd all like to be in. Good for you. I'll just add that a little skepticism and worry is healthy too, instead of totally being in "set it and forget it" mode. The NASDAQ dot-com bubble of 10 years ago, where those prices never recovered, is an example of that.
__________________
Richard8655 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 03:15 PM   #26
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
Currently, equities represent only about 43% of my portfolio. Including investment real estate, only about 25% of my assets are invested in stocks - almost exclusively good dividend-payers. So I am not selling. In fact, I am looking forward to invest more money in equities as they get cheaper.
__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 03:33 PM   #27
Recycles dryer sheets
truenorth418's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: New York
Posts: 484
As someone who tracks his portfolio daily, the past few weeks have been a little depressing. But then I remember my reliance on dividend growth stocks, and I begin wishing for an even greater move to the downside. There still seems to be a lack of good bargains out there on high quality dividend stocks paying, say, >4%.
__________________
truenorth418 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 03:50 PM   #28
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
frayne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: 19th Hole
Posts: 2,535
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard8655 View Post
Well, that sounds like the state of mind we'd all like to be in. Good for you. I'll just add that a little skepticism and worry is healthy too, instead of totally being in "set it and forget it" mode. The NASDAQ dot-com bubble of 10 years ago, where those prices never recovered, is an example of that.
To each his own, I set it and rebalance as needed but still don't worry about the state of the market. BTW, I am a pure indexer, fwiw.

BTW, I've seen my portfolio drop a cool $250K and again, didn't lose one iota of sleep as I am a true believer in mean reversion.
__________________
A totally unblemished life is only for saints.
frayne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 05:04 PM   #29
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
veremchuka's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: irradiated - too close to the nuclear furnace
Posts: 1,294
I play with the S&P 500 fund in my 401k, I made some good purchases last summer. I got out a little early in March when the S&P 500 was at 1342 so I missed some of the up side to 1419 but I made a nice profit for the 7 months I was in. During that time I was 65/35 but that's too much in equities for me really. After exchanging back into the Stable Value fund I was at 35/65 and that's more to my liking even though it is really too conservative for my age and the fact I don't draw from investments. I've been waiting for a buy point. Yesterday I couldn't resist when the S&P 500 went below 1305 even though I wanted to wait longer and sure enough today was even a better buy but my crystal ball is cloudy. I'd like to get back up to 60/40 over the summer expecting the Nov-April time frame to perform.

There is something to the seasonality as mentioned by LizAnn Sonders. I read Sy Harding's 1st book and the stats are hard to argue with! It isn't always 100%, some unfavorable seasons are great and some favorable seasons are not, but typically it holds true. Look how much the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up in mid April and now look, just about all the gains for the year have been given back. Sy has tables showing the results of being in and out (when in you're in the DJIA or when you're out you're in Treasury bills) and the losses (give backs) in the unfavorable season really reduce your returns. This isn't pick dates to get in and out all during the year, the most simple form of this is go into equities on 10/1 and get out 4/30, btw your equity position is not 100% it is just what you'd normally invest in equities. He tweaks it with many indicators the most notable is the MACD so the date to go in and get out vary from year to year but the 10/1 and 4/30 work quite well.

I really hate trying to time the market because I know I'm lousy at it but I am always tempted to follow this seasonal strategy. The one summer I got out was 2009 and that year was definitely atypical! So if I follow it I would use my 401k funds, leaving the Vanguard equities invested during the unfavorable season.

If you look at the results from 1950 to in think it was 2000 in Sy's book it is impossible to argue this strategy was definitely a winner. But that was the past and we don't know if the same will hold true going forwards.....
__________________
veremchuka is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-18-2012, 05:45 PM   #30
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
steelyman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Triangle
Posts: 3,218
I'm amazed at the change in my attitude towards monitoring my investments, selling/buying etc., since I stopped working. I do a whole lot less these days!

Early this year, I decided I would try an experiment, specifically to set a "base level" for an investment, and then on a fixed time frame (for example, quarter's end) sell the amount over that base level. As a result of that, I sold at the end of March and transferred the proceeds to a stable value fund that will be waiting for me when I need it - but it's looking like I won't sell anything in June.

Close to the concept of rebalancing, but rather than reset your asset allocation, it's more like "take the money and run". I'm looking forward to spending it!

Maybe this approach means to wait for the market to tell you WHEE
__________________
steelyman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 08:51 AM   #31
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 353
All one needs to do is look at an S&P 500 chart from 1950 to today.
Or 1960, 1970, 1980 to today. Its no wonder buy and hold scares most folks.
The chart looks like a capital M with an off shoot that started a new capital M that hit 1400. Again.......
Most of us have been whip sawed into oblivion over the past 20 years.
Some lucky, some not....... Most somewhere in the middle waiting for the next big move. Up or down..... Not a whole lot of fun........
__________________
almost there is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 09:53 AM   #32
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,939
Quote:
Originally Posted by almost there View Post
All one needs to do is look at an S&P 500 chart from 1950 to today.
Or 1960, 1970, 1980 to today. Its no wonder buy and hold scares most folks.
The chart looks like a capital M with an off shoot that started a new capital M that hit 1400. Again.......
Most of us have been whip sawed into oblivion over the past 20 years.
Some lucky, some not....... Most somewhere in the middle waiting for the next big move. Up or down..... Not a whole lot of fun........
Well, this isn't the 1990's, that's for sure. Look at that steep upwards slope at that time! Beautiful.

I have only been investing heavily since 1999, but even so I am still pleased ecstatic at how the market has treated me thus far. It sure beats putting my money in a savings account at the pitiful interest rates we have had lately.

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelyman View Post
I'm amazed at the change in my attitude towards monitoring my investments, selling/buying etc., since I stopped working. I do a whole lot less these days!
Me, too. I think that before ER, a lot of that sort of thing was aimed at checking and refining my ER investment plan, making sure that it was going all right. Now that I am retired, I have everything in place and no reason to tweak or change my approach for now.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 03:24 PM   #33
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 353
I guess it would make a difference investing for 15 yrs then getting cut in 1/2 in starting in 2000, rather than starting in 2000.
For long term folks the 2002 and 2009 bottoms really hurt.
If you look at the chart what do you think the S&P or Dow should be based on the past 50/100 yrs? Just curious.......
__________________
almost there is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 07:06 PM   #34
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,906
Quote:
Originally Posted by almost there View Post
For long term folks the 2002 and 2009 bottoms really hurt.
Only if you sold at the bottom.

I'm a long term investor with periodic rebalancing once my 10% equity "bands" are exceeded. Started investing in January of 1987 only to see the world come to an end October of 1987 when the market dropped closed to 30% IN A SINGLE DAY!. Paralized by fear I did nothing and soon the 87 crash was a minor blip on the rearview mirror. Fast forward to 2000-2002 again the world is ending. Again did nothing and low and behold retired end of 2002 and world looked pretty good from that point to 2008. Another end of the world. Again did nothing. Guess what - world did not end.

Now retired for 10 years living off my investments and my pot is 60% higher than when I retired (No pension, no SS). Brilliant investing? not really just not panicking, rebalancing when called for and largely ignoring the gurrus.
__________________
ejman is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 08:11 PM   #35
Full time employment: Posting here.
NYEXPAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 886
Quote:
Originally Posted by almost there View Post
I guess it would make a difference investing for 15 yrs then getting cut in 1/2 in starting in 2000, rather than starting in 2000.
For long term folks the 2002 and 2009 bottoms really hurt.
If you look at the chart what do you think the S&P or Dow should be based on the past 50/100 yrs? Just curious.......
I fully expected the S&P to be around 700 by now and posted that sometime last year. I am still waiting, but am very happy collecting 8.5% in CD's plus another 6% in currency exchange.
__________________
NYEXPAT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 11:30 PM   #36
Full time employment: Posting here.
urn2bfree's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 711
Getting out means paying taxes on gains, some short term if getting in and out every May to ? Whatever- missing out on dividends which are the main source of gain in the market anyway. It is still market timing and as such is unlikely to work in the long run or most significant runs. Patience discipline balance and rebalance - it does not rhyme like Sell ln May and go away, but for me it makes better sense even not rhyming.
__________________
urn2bfree is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 11:36 PM   #37
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 154
Quote:
Love those Whee periods on our roller coaster ride, and I am looking forward to the next one
In my 401K I never got in the mkt last time to make a profit. But you better believe I'll get in it this time.

My IRA's I sold half my MSFT and bought some ZNGA(bad move!!)Left everyghing else as is because they are all div paying stocks.
__________________
heirloom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-19-2012, 11:51 PM   #38
Full time employment: Posting here.
Moscyn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 728
Right now I'm more interested in the second part of - "Sell in May, BUY BACK IN ?" . Again, I am usually on vacation beginning Sept, so maybe I should buy back in end August?
__________________
Moscyn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2012, 12:55 PM   #39
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 23
May has worked well for long term treasury entries for the last 3 years.

I recently entered TMF (3x leverage) and am up 12%. This returned about 100% last go around.
__________________
eatingmywords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2012, 01:00 PM   #40
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 154
Quote:
Again, I am usually on vacation beginning Sept, so maybe I should buy back in end August?
Take your laptop with you and go to the fast food restaurants that have wi-fi and check the mkt once a day...along with news. I love watching the mkt and have to check at least once a day and make changes if needed.
__________________

__________________
heirloom is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:50 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.