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Old 05-20-2012, 04:32 PM   #41
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I have a feeling we are gonna see more carnage this summer....but who knows.
+1
I worry about Greeks taking us down big time this summer.
I sold in early March to lock in some gains and raised cash from 8% to 15%. Kept on selling in April, so I got up to 27% cash - the highest ever.
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Old 05-20-2012, 04:51 PM   #42
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Right now I'm more interested in the second part of - "Sell in May, BUY BACK IN ?" . Again, I am usually on vacation beginning Sept, so maybe I should buy back in end August?
"Always remember to buy in September"
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Old 05-20-2012, 06:14 PM   #43
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We all wonder about that. Now is an extrememly difficult time to make any predections. Sooo many things going on now.

First....Will Big Ben give us another QE? If yes, the mkt will rebound but who knows how long because:

Second...If Greece breaks out of EU, will Spain and Italy follow? If so, the whole globe will be affected.

Third....Who will win the presidential election? You know businesses are carefully watching this.

I'll be waiting and watching carefully before I make any moves and buy again.
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Old 05-20-2012, 06:48 PM   #44
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Agree with most of the above.
Sold twice in March 3/19 & 3/26 was 100% out.
Started back in last week, still 70% cash.
In the 401 my PCRA allows me to place orders, so I have the next 6 buy orders in pace. How many will make it? Who knows.......
Mainly SCHX 1000 and 2000 lots $1.00 apart from 31 to $26.00
Got the $32 covered 20% of my port, now to catch a falling knife.

Worst case, we have a huge rally back to 1410 on the S&P and I can re-enter even. But it sure does not look that way to me........

Re entered 50% in the Roth IRA's last week. Sold in may @ 13.44 new ave 12.80. Plan to add more VTTVX next week.


Looking forward to quiet times in the future where you can just let it gently glide upwards.........
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Old 05-20-2012, 07:33 PM   #45
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Agree with most of the above.
Sold twice in March 3/19 & 3/26 was 100% out.
Started back in last week, still 70% cash.
In the 401 my PCRA allows me to place orders, so I have the next 6 buy orders in pace. How many will make it? Who knows.......
Mainly SCHX 1000 and 2000 lots $1.00 apart from 31 to $26.00
Got the $32 covered 20% of my port, now to catch a falling knife.

Worst case, we have a huge rally back to 1410 on the S&P and I can re-enter even. But it sure does not look that way to me........

Re entered 50% in the Roth IRA's last week. Sold in may @ 13.44 new ave 12.80. Plan to add more VTTVX next week.


Looking forward to quiet times in the future where you can just let it gently glide upwards.........
Sounds like you are having lots of fun. Some folks around here follow more of the cicada cycle which is 13 years so next time to wake up is 2024 if my math is correct...
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Old 05-20-2012, 07:37 PM   #46
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Lots of ways to go. Some go public at 28 and are worth billions over night..

There is no right answer.......... As long as it works for you.
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Old 05-21-2012, 02:26 AM   #47
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Take your laptop with you and go to the fast food restaurants that have wi-fi and check the mkt once a day...along with news. I love watching the mkt and have to check at least once a day and make changes if needed.
Strangely, I completely do not think about the market when on holiday. The hotels have wi-fi but I tend to update my FB and not even check the market. I guess I have myself to blame if I can't get the best sells/buys.
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Old 05-21-2012, 07:44 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by heirloom View Post
We all wonder about that. Now is an extrememly difficult time to make any predections. Sooo many things going on now.

First....Will Big Ben give us another QE? If yes, the mkt will rebound but who knows how long because:

Second...If Greece breaks out of EU, will Spain and Italy follow? If so, the whole globe will be affected.

Third....Who will win the presidential election? You know businesses are carefully watching this.

I'll be waiting and watching carefully before I make any moves and buy again.
Fourth..... Congressional grid lock II, which will most likely happen both before and after the election. On your second point, the whole globe has already been affected, but yes it could get worse.

There are tremendous uncertainties right now for both businesses and investors, and thats one thing that wallstreet certainly doesn't like. Not sure how to best position for whats to come. Maybe short term bonds and div equites in consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare and cash.
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Old 05-21-2012, 08:24 AM   #49
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+1
I worry about Greeks taking us down big time this summer.
I sold in early March to lock in some gains and raised cash from 8% to 15%. Kept on selling in April, so I got up to 27% cash - the highest ever.
I often wonder how a country that has a smaller GDP than 14 of our states has any kind of impact on our economy. Ok, I get that its the Euro and people invest in Europe... but seriously, they are a drop in the lake compared to our entire GDP as a country (311B compared to 14.7T)

Crazy to think that billions of dollars in NYSE/NASDAQ equities can vanish overnight because a country with an economy smaller than Massachusetts made some bonehead mistakes.

I keep thinking it is just overreaction...


Gross Domestic Product
California - $1.9T
Texas - $1.2T
New York - $1.2T
Florida - $754B
Illinois - $644B
Pennsylvania - $575B
New Jersey - $497B
Ohio - $483B
Virginia - $427B
North Carolina - $407B
Georgia - $404B
Massachusetts - $377B
Michigan - $372B
Washington - $351B

GREECE - $311B

Maryland - $300B
...
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Old 05-21-2012, 10:27 AM   #50
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I often wonder how a country that has a smaller GDP than 14 of our states has any kind of impact on our economy.
...
I keep thinking it is just overreaction...
+1
It's because of the uncertainty. If Greece breaks out of EU, will Spain and Italy follow?
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