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Old 04-24-2011, 10:00 AM   #21
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I have never been very successful timing the market, so most likely will keep my allocation where it is. QEII coming to end is a concern as to what that will do on the bond side.

If your into market timing algorithms, one metric that may be better for exiting the market might be when the S&P 500 goes below its 200 dma by X% (maybe 3-5%).
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Old 04-24-2011, 10:38 AM   #22
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staying put. aa is 75% equity, 15% bond, 10% cash.
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Old 04-24-2011, 11:39 AM   #23
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That chart should wrap around from where it ends on April 30 on the right to where it starts on May 1 on the left. Why does it have 6 -12% return on April 30 and 0% return on May 1?
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Old 04-24-2011, 03:32 PM   #24
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I don't consult the calendar, or the stars, when making investment decisions. But I do think we have an extended market and an economic slow down looming (largely due to the fiscal drag of expiring stimulus and budget cuts combined with the shock of a 35% yearly increase in gasoline prices). I don't think we're heading for recession, but we could easily see a repeat of last Spring when the economy also hit a soft patch and the S&P declined 15% or so.
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Old 04-24-2011, 03:46 PM   #25
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Nope. I'm on sabbatical from messing with my portfolio. My hand is not touching the dial.
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Old 04-24-2011, 07:07 PM   #26
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I'm not going without my dividends for 6 months....I'm addicted. Besides I doubt that goofey chart take into account dividends (1/2 the profit in the stock market but who's counting passive crap like that)
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Old 04-24-2011, 08:45 PM   #27
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+1

Besides, if I sold in May we would probably have the greatest market rally in modern times.
Just be sure to let us all know when you do...
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Old 04-25-2011, 02:09 AM   #28
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Realised some stock and fund gains in April - only because those gains are attractively high. Trying to maintain basic allocation percentage to keep income inflow from dividends and interests however cash level appears high at the moment given the recent sale of stock and funds.
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Old 04-25-2011, 04:25 AM   #29
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Realised some stock and fund gains in April - only because those gains are attractively high.
Same here.

I sell when it makes sense, not driven by a calendar date.
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Old 04-25-2011, 06:31 AM   #30
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I closed most of my call option positions in the last month or so because the stocks had run and I thought significant further gains in the time I had left were unlikely. Other than that, I mostly trade based on valuations and my efforts to diversify. Could care less what month it is.
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Old 04-25-2011, 08:45 AM   #31
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Then you have to factor in the third year of a presidential term (statistical, not political, from last summer: Looking to year 3 of presidential cycle Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch) and divide by your age minus your date of birth times the number of people who live on your block who own a Magic8 ball. All signs are good!
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Old 04-25-2011, 10:35 AM   #32
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Then you have to factor in the third year of a presidential term (statistical, not political, from last summer: Looking to year 3 of presidential cycle Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch) and divide by your age minus your date of birth times the number of people who live on your block who own a Magic8 ball. All signs are good!
Hey, you too could be a certified technical analyst!
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Old 04-25-2011, 12:44 PM   #33
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No I don't do that because I feel my asset allocation is one I can live with. Actually I think it is a little light on equities at 35/65 so I'm thinking if we see a good correction of say 15% I'd be willing to up my equities to 40 or 45%, 50% seems too high for me.

It sure seems we are poised for a pull back as there are a lot of negative things but there are many positive things as well so I don't know what will happen. Sell in May was not a good call in 2009 and even in 2010 if you missed September you missed out on a lot of growth.

Market timing means you have to be right twice, I can't get it right one time! I'm tuning out the noise.
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Old 04-25-2011, 03:21 PM   #34
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The only assets I would consider selling early are municipal bonds. I will keep my CDs to their maturity date.
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Old 04-25-2011, 09:29 PM   #35
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It's important that investment strategies rhyme.
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Old 04-25-2011, 09:32 PM   #36
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It's important that investment strategies rhyme.
Sell in June, you're a goon.
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Old 04-25-2011, 09:36 PM   #37
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I too have sat through a lot. When I think about selling, I think what the hell will I do with it? I already have plenty of money sitting in 1% bank accounts. I've heard now is not the time for bond funds. So here I sit pondering... Maybe I should try trading a little and see how I do or don't?
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Old 04-26-2011, 08:59 AM   #38
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dont bother...... its not worth the drama........ IMO.
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Old 04-26-2011, 09:05 AM   #39
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Sell in June, you're a goon.
Sell in May? You're OK...
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Old 04-26-2011, 10:13 AM   #40
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Fighting fire with fire, this is the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle and since 1951 we've seen the following averages:





I'm hanging tight.
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