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04-24-2011, 10:00 AM
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#21
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 7,586
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I have never been very successful timing the market, so most likely will keep my allocation where it is. QEII coming to end is a concern as to what that will do on the bond side.
If your into market timing algorithms, one metric that may be better for exiting the market might be when the S&P 500 goes below its 200 dma by X% (maybe 3-5%).
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04-24-2011, 10:38 AM
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#22
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 241
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staying put. aa is 75% equity, 15% bond, 10% cash.
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04-24-2011, 11:39 AM
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#23
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Torrance
Posts: 116
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by traineeinvestor
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That chart should wrap around from where it ends on April 30 on the right to where it starts on May 1 on the left. Why does it have 6 -12% return on April 30 and 0% return on May 1?
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04-24-2011, 03:32 PM
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#24
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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I don't consult the calendar, or the stars, when making investment decisions. But I do think we have an extended market and an economic slow down looming (largely due to the fiscal drag of expiring stimulus and budget cuts combined with the shock of a 35% yearly increase in gasoline prices). I don't think we're heading for recession, but we could easily see a repeat of last Spring when the economy also hit a soft patch and the S&P declined 15% or so.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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04-24-2011, 03:46 PM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,037
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Nope. I'm on sabbatical from messing with my portfolio. My hand is not touching the dial. 
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
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04-24-2011, 07:07 PM
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#26
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 50
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I'm not going without my dividends for 6 months....I'm addicted. Besides I doubt that goofey chart take into account dividends (1/2 the profit in the stock market but who's counting passive crap like that)
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04-24-2011, 08:45 PM
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#27
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Indialantic FL
Posts: 1,330
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
+1
Besides, if I sold in May we would probably have the greatest market rally in modern times.  |
Just be sure to let us all know when you do...
__________________
JimnJana
"The four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different.'" - Sir John Templeton
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04-25-2011, 02:09 AM
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#28
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 728
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Realised some stock and fund gains in April - only because those gains are attractively high. Trying to maintain basic allocation percentage to keep income inflow from dividends and interests however cash level appears high at the moment given the recent sale of stock and funds.
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04-25-2011, 04:25 AM
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#29
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gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moscyn
Realised some stock and fund gains in April - only because those gains are attractively high.
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Same here.
I sell when it makes sense, not driven by a calendar date.
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04-25-2011, 06:31 AM
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#30
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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I closed most of my call option positions in the last month or so because the stocks had run and I thought significant further gains in the time I had left were unlikely. Other than that, I mostly trade based on valuations and my efforts to diversify. Could care less what month it is.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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04-25-2011, 08:45 AM
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#31
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,774
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Then you have to factor in the third year of a presidential term (statistical, not political, from last summer: Looking to year 3 of presidential cycle Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch) and divide by your age minus your date of birth times the number of people who live on your block who own a Magic8 ball. All signs are good!
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
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04-25-2011, 10:35 AM
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#32
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bestwifeever
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Hey, you too could be a certified technical analyst!
__________________
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Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
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04-25-2011, 12:44 PM
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#33
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: irradiated - too close to the nuclear furnace
Posts: 1,294
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No I don't do that because I feel my asset allocation is one I can live with. Actually I think it is a little light on equities at 35/65 so I'm thinking if we see a good correction of say 15% I'd be willing to up my equities to 40 or 45%, 50% seems too high for me.
It sure seems we are poised for a pull back as there are a lot of negative things but there are many positive things as well so I don't know what will happen. Sell in May was not a good call in 2009 and even in 2010 if you missed September you missed out on a lot of growth.
Market timing means you have to be right twice, I can't get it right one time! I'm tuning out the noise.
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04-25-2011, 03:21 PM
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#34
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: midwestern city
Posts: 4,061
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The only assets I would consider selling early are municipal bonds. I will keep my CDs to their maturity date.
__________________
Very conservative with investments. Not ER'd yet, 48 years old. Please do not take anything I write or imply as legal, financial or medical advice directed to you. Contact your own financial advisor, healthcare provider, or attorney for financial, medical and legal advice.
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04-25-2011, 09:29 PM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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It's important that investment strategies rhyme.
__________________
Al
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04-25-2011, 09:32 PM
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#36
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
It's important that investment strategies rhyme.
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Sell in June, you're a goon.
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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04-25-2011, 09:36 PM
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#37
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 564
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I too have sat through a lot. When I think about selling, I think what the hell will I do with it? I already have plenty of money sitting in 1% bank accounts. I've heard now is not the time for bond funds. So here I sit pondering... Maybe I should try trading a little and see how I do or don't?
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04-26-2011, 08:59 AM
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#38
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 1,011
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dont bother...... its not worth the drama........ IMO.
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04-26-2011, 09:05 AM
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#39
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gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
Sell in June, you're a goon.
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Sell in May? You're OK...
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04-26-2011, 10:13 AM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
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Fighting fire with fire, this is the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle and since 1951 we've seen the following averages:
I'm hanging tight.
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