Sell in May and go away !

I may sell of few equities, but not because it's May, but because they have had a nice run and I'll take some more profit out. Last year I sold enough to pay off the mortgage ($170,000) and my portfolio is still higher than it has ever been. Of course I'm still contributing to my savings, as I'm w*rking for another month.

My problem will be in where to put the profit I'm taking from equities. I'll put a bit in a short/intermediate term bond fund. After that??
 
That old chestnut sure hasn't worked recently.

S&P 500
May 28, 2010 1089.41
Oct 1, 2010 1146.24
Net gain: 5.2%
 
I sat through the last down turn so I can sit through anything, I think. So I'll just sit the way I am and see what happens.
 
braumeister said:
That old chestnut sure hasn't worked recently.

S&P 500
May 28, 2010 1089.41
Oct 1, 2010 1146.24
Net gain: 5.2%
Click to expand...

Nice data mining. I'll try to do you one better.
VTSMX (Vanguard Total US Stock Market Index fund)
May 03, 2010 to 08/31/2010
Net gain: -12%

Of course, you missed some nice actionable downs and ups during that time period.
 
73ss454 said:
I sat through the last down turn so I can sit through anything, I think. So I'll just sit the way I am and see what happens.
Click to expand...

+1

Besides, if I sold in May we would probably have the greatest market rally in modern times. :rolleyes:
 
I don't plan on doing any selling due to May. I have been selling this spring, but only because I am building a 3-yr cash cushion that I hope will take me through any downturns once I FIRE later this year.
 
I sold in April when I moved my 401K to Vanguard. It's almost 40% of my investments and it's sitting in a money market fund while I sit on the fence. The more bad news we get the more the market goes up. Somebody needs to make up my mind, cause I don't know what to do.
 
JmfromTx said:
I sold in April when I moved my 401K to Vanguard. It's almost 40% of my investments and it's sitting in a money market fund while I sit on the fence. The more bad news we get the more the market goes up. Somebody needs to make up my mind, cause I don't know what to do.
Click to expand...

If you think you can time the market just sit till it corrects. If not, jump in and close you eyes.

I had to decide in 2006 and I went all in. Almost 5 years later I still have no idea where the market it headed. But I do know it will go up and down.:rolleyes:
 
I might possibly sell some gold and silver. Will decide next month.
 
No, I don't sell in May and go Away.

Instead, I hold and go away April, May and June. :)

In otherwords, I really only check my allocations each quarter, then if any asset class is off by more than 5%, I rebalance.
 
frayne said:
Sell in May and go away !
Anyone planning to use this strategy in 2011 ?
Just curious.
Click to expand...
Yeah-- in April. Took some profits off the table already and sold a few more calls to those who think the market will be up in August.

Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting three-ring circus starts on the 30th so we'll see how things pop during the week after. Might need to sell or donate some shares for rebalancing.
 
Thinking about it. OK, so sell in May and Go Away does not work every year. However, this may be the year it does. Gas at $5 a gallon, more money in the money supply then ever before, the market on a good run. For me it seems like the market might be ready for a down turn, correction, what ever. So is it a sell in May and go away, beats me, but, I am still thinking of selling some.
 
My AA is currently 49%/51% equity/fixed income. My target AA is 48%/52%, so it's pretty close.

I have a few positions that have done exceptionally well over the past year (commodity ETF, silver, company stock). I think I will sell some of those positions and go to cash. I have prepared a shopping list of stocks to buy during the next market correction. I just have to be patient.
 
This year QE2 ends in June.

Gas prices on the rise may not help for this summer's vacation season.

Still, I intend to stay invested in equity (my allocation).

But I have been thinking about rebalancing before QE2 ends.
 
I have never been very successful timing the market, so most likely will keep my allocation where it is. QEII coming to end is a concern as to what that will do on the bond side.

If your into market timing algorithms, one metric that may be better for exiting the market might be when the S&P 500 goes below its 200 dma by X% (maybe 3-5%).
 
I don't consult the calendar, or the stars, when making investment decisions. But I do think we have an extended market and an economic slow down looming (largely due to the fiscal drag of expiring stimulus and budget cuts combined with the shock of a 35% yearly increase in gasoline prices). I don't think we're heading for recession, but we could easily see a repeat of last Spring when the economy also hit a soft patch and the S&P declined 15% or so.
 
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