Sell in May and Go Away?

[Spanky]

Quote:

Originally Posted by EvrClrx311 (also... it doesn't just take a good idea to make what facebook is today... Mark Z clearly has a business side to him that I lack. Most of what facebook is today is because of how it was marketed and the risks that were taken early on with raising capital for the project... things that we never would have done had we decided to turn our idea into a company...) Plus, I would have just sold it for $10 million in its first few years and retired at the age of 25 - who needs that kind of stress?

Some people thrive on stress for whatever reason.

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spanky Some people thrive on stress for whatever reason.

And if it doesn't exist, then they go looking for it.

And if they can't find it, then they create some of their own to share.

[Retire Soon]

Should someone decide to "Sell in May and go away," this article gives ideas on what to do with all your new cash:

Where to go if you

[TromboneAl]

Sell in March and plant a larch.

[tulak]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl Sell in March and plant a larch.

Darn. If I only I saw this a week ago. Is it safe to wait until next March?

[Dennis]

And you really expect someone that Has made that work tell you?
It would defeat their purpose -Any proven System has to be kept secret, for if enough do it? It won't work, right?

I served the Financial Industrty for 30 yrs in the Limo Business and had just about everyone on the Planet "In the Back Seat" of my Limo Several Times over the yrs..

I learned their was only one way to Make $ on Wall Street and that was " OPM- Getting others $ to give it to you for selling them your services..and Gamble using OPM.. their $, while you put yours in Bonds and Real Estate..

You really think Jack Boggle got so rich investing His Own $?
I just put mine into The "Poor Mans" investments and that is using Balanced Funds.. They are just like hiring a FA to invest your $ for you.. Own 3-5 of different kinds and you have things covered.. Key is? You have to put Enough into them to make it worthwhile..! What good does making 10% apy do you , if you Need to have $1 Million to Retire on , but you can only Save $5k yr? Everything is Relative.. :-(

[Dennis]

Nice Looking at all those Past Performances and what $10 Grand is worth today, isn't it?
-Only one Problem? Who had $10k to Invest into something like that some 20-40 yrs ago?
-If you were lucky back then? You maybe had a Total of $10k and you shirley didn't Invest it all into One Thing! You diversified and had a Balanced Portfolio..
Maybe 10% in each at the most.. So take 10% of it and 90% of the rest being in Everything else and see where you'd be by now..

And you'd have to invest at least 20% in a Stock fund that does +5% more than everything else, to make even 1% apy more after ? 18 yrs.. and who keeps an Investment that lone? Not too many..

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl Sell in March and plant a larch.

Still too soon to buy in June?

[M Paquette]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dennis Any proven System has to be kept secret, for if enough do it? It won't work, right?

Yup. Any widely known system gets optimized away by the market. Since "Sell in (early) May" has worked pretty well the last couple of years, I fully expect the trading types to jump in even earlier this year, triggering a drop in April that will product the usual short term stampede for the exits, and producing a good short term buying opportunity by May.

But that's just cynical me. I personally know what the combination of frictional losses,taxes, and the risk of having to make two accurate timing decisions (out and in) would do to my portfolio, so I'll just be one of those (lesser) fools buying and holding, whilst munching my popcorn and observing the market timers.

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by M Paquette Since "Sell in (early) May" has worked pretty well the last couple of years, I fully expect the trading types to jump in even earlier this year, triggering a drop in April that will product the usual short term stampede for the exits, and producing a good short term buying opportunity by May.

Sell in April, or it could be fatal?

[TromboneAl]

Buy in September if you remember.

[SRyan]

There’s a book/journal called the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”. I picked up a copy this year. It has all the statistics regarding the “best” months for being in and out of the market for the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. It also goes into the $10K model about getting out in May and getting back in during October. Also goes into saying that certain MACD signals can be used to get an exact date to get out in April and back in October and if used during the last 30 years you too could be a multi-gazillionaire. And of course, you can sign up through their website and pay an extra fee to get these signals emailed to you when they occur-skeptical…

The book is full of stats as well as a daily calendar for all the days of the year with historical statistics listed on most days (whether the market closed historically down or up on that day of the month). Even if this strategy turns out to be BS, it’s still a pretty nice hardcover organizer/planner. (cost is about $30 from Amazon)
The book also says that this data is not really applicable during election years, so we’ll see if it works next year.
With commission costs so low, may be fun to try with DIA, SPY and QQQ in the “in” months and TLT in the off months with a small portion of the portfolio.
Flip side: with this knowledge widely distributed now, will it really work for the next 30 years or do you let the lemmings play the strategy and start bargain shopping when they all sell in May

[Spanky]

"Flip side: with this knowledge widely distributed now, will it really work for the next 30 year"

NO!

[ducky911]

I am a Capricorn, will this work for me?


QUOTE=SRyan;1183104]There’s a book/journal called the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”. I picked up a copy this year. It has all the statistics regarding the “best” months for being in and out of the market for the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. It also goes into the $10K model about getting out in May and getting back in during October. Also goes into saying that certain MACD signals can be used to get an exact date to get out in April and back in October and if used during the last 30 years you too could be a multi-gazillionaire. And of course, you can sign up through their website and pay an extra fee to get these signals emailed to you when they occur-skeptical…

The book is full of stats as well as a daily calendar for all the days of the year with historical statistics listed on most days (whether the market closed historically down or up on that day of the month). Even if this strategy turns out to be BS, it’s still a pretty nice hardcover organizer/planner. (cost is about $30 from Amazon)
The book also says that this data is not really applicable during election years, so we’ll see if it works next year.
With commission costs so low, may be fun to try with DIA, SPY and QQQ in the “in” months and TLT in the off months with a small portion of the portfolio.
Flip side: with this knowledge widely distributed now, will it really work for the next 30 years or do you let the lemmings play the strategy and start bargain shopping when they all sell in May[/QUOTE]

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl Buy in September if you remember.

And if you are bolder buy in October.

[TromboneAl]

Sell in August and eat a live chicken.

[harley]

It's amazing that we're still on topic in this thread. Good job, people.

[chris2008]

I have learned that the next line is:
"...but you have to remember to buy in September."

[TromboneAl]

Buy in December, then hold onto your member!

[MichaelB]

You win..