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Old 05-27-2014, 12:19 PM   #21
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Don't Wellesley/Wellington do all that rebalancing for its shareholders?

And by the way, they do that year round, and whenever they feel it's necessary I think.
Yep. I don't recall the last time I've had to do any rebalancing. With the bulk of the portfolio in the above two funds my AA hasn't varied more than a percent or two for several years.
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Old 05-27-2014, 01:06 PM   #22
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I think I ask this same question about every year and always like to see the comments. ....
If you look at the growth of $10,000 of Vanguard Total Stock (as an example) from mid May to year end over the last 10 years, more often than not the 12/31/yy value is higher than the 5/15/yy value, so it seems like bunk to me. I'm an investor, not a trader.
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Old 05-27-2014, 01:21 PM   #23
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...On the other hand, testing meat thermometers sounds incredibly boring.
To a cook, testing meat thermometers for measurement speed is more exciting than NASCAR.

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I'd rather browse Amazon.
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Old 05-27-2014, 01:37 PM   #24
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If you look at the growth of $10,000 of Vanguard Total Stock (as an example) from mid May to year end over the last 10 years, more often than not the 12/31/yy value is higher than the 5/15/yy value, so it seems like bunk to me. I'm an investor, not a trader.
I think the theory, or myth, is that the market usually builds up in the early part of the year, but then stalls out in May and pulls back some, and doesn't really take off again until around September. So while the 12/31 value might be higher than the 5/31 value, August or September might be a good time to jump back in, and take advantage of some market timing. Of course, your mileage may vary...
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Old 05-27-2014, 01:49 PM   #25
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OK, so two of my covered call options just got sold. Over the weekend, I set sell orders on a couple of leveraged ETFs, which bounced like yo-yo, and that I bought recently as a lark.

The covered calls may, emphasis on may, limit my future gains, but one should not be too greedy, right? These ETFs are only 1% of my portfolio, and the gains on them are not enough to pay for gas for my upcoming 9K-mile RV trip, but it is fun when one buys low to sell high.

Much more fun and challenging than going to Las Vegas or the race track. As much fun but more lucrative (potentially) than testing meat thermometers.
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Old 05-27-2014, 01:55 PM   #26
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I am up 38% YTD and sold in May....I just don't know when to buy back...maybe not until December?
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Old 05-27-2014, 02:08 PM   #27
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Gartman says to give up, as the market is not going to correct ant time soon. (Hes's been calling for a correction for most of this year so far, except for the times he's said it's going to rally!!!)

'Abundantly wrong' to expect correction: Gartman
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Old 05-27-2014, 02:13 PM   #28
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BTW - last year we had a pretty good run up into May, and the market did correct (well, close - 6% or so) in late May, before talking off like a rocket in the fall.

But this year it's really not up that much, eve with the S&P trading above 1900.
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Old 05-27-2014, 02:18 PM   #29
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Gartman says to give up, as the market is not going to correct ant time soon. (Hes's been calling for a correction for most of this year so far, except for the times he's said it's going to rally!!!)

'Abundantly wrong' to expect correction: Gartman
I do not even know who Gartman is, but from your description of his records, it could be time to sell all and run for the hill.
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Old 05-27-2014, 02:23 PM   #30
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I think maybe we need a newbe title category "confused about testing meat thermometers."
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Old 05-27-2014, 03:09 PM   #31
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I'll bet there are some on here who claim to never change allocation, but when the market drops big they come back and tell you how they took equity $s off the table and avoided the big hit
I fully admit timing individual stocks and occasionally entire markets. I have been selling off at each successive high the past month. I am currently 90% cash and expect to be 100% cash by S&P 1950.
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Old 05-27-2014, 03:35 PM   #32
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Apparently you have to sell in May and cross your fingers that you can buy those same stocks back for less $$ in October. Just like Frayne's OP (), this kind of article appears every May Should you sell in May as Wall St. slogan advises?

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Since 1928, the 1.9% average gain for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index in the six-month span starting in May is the weakest of them all, and feeble compared with the 5.1% return in the No. 1-ranked six-month stretch ending in April, data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch show.

(It doesn't always pan out. Last year, the S&P 500 rallied 10% in the typically weak six-month period.)

BofA's statistics highlight the fact that the May-October time frame poses the highest risk of a market decline of 20% or more than any other six-month time period.
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Old 05-27-2014, 03:41 PM   #33
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BTW - last year we had a pretty good run up into May, and the market did correct (well, close - 6% or so) in late May, before talking off like a rocket in the fall.

But this year it's really not up that much, eve with the S&P trading above 1900.
So, this year the market may just drop twice as much as the run-of-the-mill 10% correction to make up for last year.

Time to sell some more... It's now or never. Oops, the market's already close while I did some community service by testing meat thermometers. Darn! Tomorrow may be too late already.

But why am I thinking of a song?
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Old 05-27-2014, 07:06 PM   #34
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Old 05-27-2014, 10:07 PM   #35
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Fun reading all of this but I'm too lazy to do all that work and go through all the gyrations. I (we) are back in the market again which is something I said I (we) would never do. Of course I am a very cautious individual so decided to take the advice of many on this board and put it all into Wellesley Admiral. My wife made me promise to not get on the computer every night and check the fund. I've done it only once or trice since March. Here's hoping you all were giving me some good advice.
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