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05-27-2014, 11:19 AM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Don't Wellesley/Wellington do all that rebalancing for its shareholders?
And by the way, they do that year round, and whenever they feel it's necessary I think.
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Yep. I don't recall the last time I've had to do any rebalancing. With the bulk of the portfolio in the above two funds my AA hasn't varied more than a percent or two for several years.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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05-27-2014, 12:06 PM
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#22
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,363
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
I think I ask this same question about every year and always like to see the comments. ....
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If you look at the growth of $10,000 of Vanguard Total Stock (as an example) from mid May to year end over the last 10 years, more often than not the 12/31/yy value is higher than the 5/15/yy value, so it seems like bunk to me. I'm an investor, not a trader.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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05-27-2014, 12:21 PM
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#23
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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To a cook, testing meat thermometers for measurement speed is more exciting than NASCAR.
Quote:
I'd rather browse Amazon.
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__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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05-27-2014, 12:37 PM
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#24
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,745
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
If you look at the growth of $10,000 of Vanguard Total Stock (as an example) from mid May to year end over the last 10 years, more often than not the 12/31/yy value is higher than the 5/15/yy value, so it seems like bunk to me. I'm an investor, not a trader.
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I think the theory, or myth, is that the market usually builds up in the early part of the year, but then stalls out in May and pulls back some, and doesn't really take off again until around September. So while the 12/31 value might be higher than the 5/31 value, August or September might be a good time to jump back in, and take advantage of some market timing. Of course, your mileage may vary...
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05-27-2014, 12:49 PM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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OK, so two of my covered call options just got sold. Over the weekend, I set sell orders on a couple of leveraged ETFs, which bounced like yo-yo, and that I bought recently as a lark.
The covered calls may, emphasis on may, limit my future gains, but one should not be too greedy, right? These ETFs are only 1% of my portfolio, and the gains on them are not enough to pay for gas for my upcoming 9K-mile RV trip, but it is fun when one buys low to sell high.
Much more fun and challenging than going to Las Vegas or the race track. As much fun but more lucrative (potentially) than testing meat thermometers.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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05-27-2014, 12:55 PM
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#26
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 6,023
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I am up 38% YTD and sold in May....I just don't know when to buy back...maybe not until December?
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05-27-2014, 01:08 PM
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#27
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,140
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Gartman says to give up, as the market is not going to correct ant time soon. (Hes's been calling for a correction for most of this year so far, except for the times he's said it's going to rally!!!)
'Abundantly wrong' to expect correction: Gartman
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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05-27-2014, 01:13 PM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,140
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BTW - last year we had a pretty good run up into May, and the market did correct (well, close - 6% or so) in late May, before talking off like a rocket in the fall.
But this year it's really not up that much, eve with the S&P trading above 1900.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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05-27-2014, 01:18 PM
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#29
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Gartman says to give up, as the market is not going to correct ant time soon. (Hes's been calling for a correction for most of this year so far, except for the times he's said it's going to rally!!!)
'Abundantly wrong' to expect correction: Gartman
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I do not even know who Gartman is, but from your description of his records, it could be time to sell all and run for the hill.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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05-27-2014, 01:23 PM
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#30
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,893
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I think maybe we need a newbe title category "confused about testing meat thermometers."
__________________
Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
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05-27-2014, 02:09 PM
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#31
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,992
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I fully admit timing individual stocks and occasionally entire markets. I have been selling off at each successive high the past month. I am currently 90% cash and expect to be 100% cash by S&P 1950.
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05-27-2014, 02:35 PM
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#32
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,774
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Apparently you have to sell in May and cross your fingers that you can buy those same stocks back for less $$ in October. Just like Frayne's OP ( ), this kind of article appears every May Should you sell in May as Wall St. slogan advises?
Quote:
Since 1928, the 1.9% average gain for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index in the six-month span starting in May is the weakest of them all, and feeble compared with the 5.1% return in the No. 1-ranked six-month stretch ending in April, data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch show.
(It doesn't always pan out. Last year, the S&P 500 rallied 10% in the typically weak six-month period.)
BofA's statistics highlight the fact that the May-October time frame poses the highest risk of a market decline of 20% or more than any other six-month time period.
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__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
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05-27-2014, 02:41 PM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
BTW - last year we had a pretty good run up into May, and the market did correct (well, close - 6% or so) in late May, before talking off like a rocket in the fall.
But this year it's really not up that much, eve with the S&P trading above 1900.
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So, this year the market may just drop twice as much as the run-of-the-mill 10% correction to make up for last year.
Time to sell some more... It's now or never. Oops, the market's already close while I did some community service by testing meat thermometers. Darn! Tomorrow may be too late already.
But why am I thinking of a song?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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05-27-2014, 06:06 PM
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#34
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,506
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The yearly ritual, think about it, never do it, none the worse for not participating.
__________________
There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
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05-27-2014, 09:07 PM
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#35
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Naples
Posts: 2,179
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Fun reading all of this but I'm too lazy to do all that work and go through all the gyrations. I (we) are back in the market again which is something I said I (we) would never do. Of course I am a very cautious individual so decided to take the advice of many on this board and put it all into Wellesley Admiral. My wife made me promise to not get on the computer every night and check the fund. I've done it only once or trice since March. Here's hoping you all were giving me some good advice.
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