|
|
03-26-2010, 01:42 PM
|
#21
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 4,203
|
Weather it is or it is not does not move this discussion on. This article explains it.
Halloween Effect (Sell in May, Go Away) - CallWriter's MONEY newsLETTER
I have not found a good analysis of when it did not work. I know it did not in 2009
__________________
If it is after 5:00 when I post I reserve the right to disavow anything I posted.
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
03-26-2010, 01:48 PM
|
#22
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,007
|
There have been many years where it did not work - more of them recently. It's one of those things that so many people are aware of it, it doesn't work as advertised - either not at all, or investors "front-run" the time period so the timing gets skewed.
Audrey
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 01:49 PM
|
#23
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,473
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
If you did sell, what would you do with the proceeds?
|
Good point!
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Yep. Some folks came VERY close to selling at the bottom but managed to hang on.
Once again, I'm happy with my AA and I'm sticking with it. Probably.
|
Same here. I stuck to my AA clear through the market crash and that was a great test. After going through all that I'm not going to change my AA now.
Besides, those who do sell in May might lose some of the post-crash ride up. Or not. Let me consult my crystal ball....
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 04:29 PM
|
#24
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
If you did sell, what would you do with the proceeds?
|
I can put the money in Vanguard Money Market or Schwab Value Advantage and earn a fabulous .01% lets see on a million dollar that is $100 bucks a year.
Or I can stick in the Schwab High Yield Check or Savings account and get 50x as much .5% that gives me a whole $5,000 to spend a year on a million dollar portfolio. Or I can but 6 month T-bills at .23% or 6 Month CD's at .5% Schwab or Vanguard or 1% at Penfed. Suffice to say with any of the approaches I am not going to be having Trombone Al's problem of not spending enough money...
Of course buying back in November looks very attractive at lower price unless of course the market has moved higher. It which case my options seem to be try and figure out how to live in world where safe investments pay only 1 to 2% or stick the money back in the market that is even more overvalued.
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 04:38 PM
|
#25
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
|
IMO - stick with a disciplined rebalancing plan. You will capture gains on the way up. Don't try to time the market.
|
|
|
03-27-2010, 09:22 AM
|
#27
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco
IMO - stick with a disciplined rebalancing plan. You will capture gains on the way up. Don't try to time the market.
|
So much wise advice in such a short post but oh so difficult for many to execute.
DD
__________________
At 54% of FIRE target
|
|
|
03-27-2010, 10:27 AM
|
#28
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by DblDoc
So much wise advice in such a short post but oh so difficult for many to execute.
DD
|
The reason is that the fear of losing takes over rationality.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
|
|
|
03-27-2010, 10:30 AM
|
#29
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
|
Quote:
The other thing to ask yourself is: how much upside remains?
|
Not much according to most forecasts out there in the net. However, how accurate or creditable are these forecasts? In the final analysis, no one knows for sure. We can always guess.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
|
|
|
03-27-2010, 07:31 PM
|
#30
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,154
|
ripper1
Quote:
Originally Posted by nun
Whenever my taxable account gains 10% I cash it in and pay down the mortgage.
|
Poof. Now your money is lost in the walls of your house.
|
|
|
03-28-2010, 09:40 PM
|
#31
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,894
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
C'est dommage!
|
Perhaps I wasn't clear. I have a ton of vested company stock options that are well in the money and I need to exercise them in order to take advantage of the relatively low tax rates until the end of the year. I will sell the stock upon exercising the option (same-day-sale) because otherwise, company stock would overwhelm the rest of my portfolio. So I am selling because the stock (which is a speculative small cap) has done very, very well and I am locking in a tidy profit. I have new options vesting every month, so if the stock keeps doing well, I'll keep reaping the reward. If it doesn't, at least I am limiting the downside risk. I think I can live with that!
|
|
|
03-29-2010, 02:23 AM
|
#32
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,487
|
Exactly. Keeping your eggs all in one basket is never a good idea, i.e., tying up your career AND (too much of) your personal fortune in the same company as your career.
...don't ask me how I know this...
R
__________________
Find Joy in the Journey...
|
|
|
03-29-2010, 07:03 PM
|
#33
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 348
|
well seeing as how i am going to be FIRE'd in the next year this is my year to consolidate and reduce risk so yes I will be selling quite a bit this year and storing some cash on the sidelines... now this will only be temporary until i find a nice niche for the $$$
__________________
I am FIRE'd... :)
contract on the house, bought an RV and now traveling across America
|
|
|
03-29-2010, 08:11 PM
|
#34
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,130
|
Sell in May? Or did you mean mayday-mayday-mayday?
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|