Sell in May this year?

[dex]

You might be correct about May
Read this
T Theoryâ„¢ Foundation: T Theoryâ„¢ Daily Updates, Forecasts, Charts and Data

If you like that, then look at the below for his discussion of the 80 and 40 year cycle.
Terry Laundry's T Theoryâ„¢ Observations: Terry Laundry's Weekly T Theoryâ„¢ Observations for March 21 2010

Also, look for his Best Bond Strategy.

I don't think buy and hold will be as easy as it was in the past 30 years.

I will be watching the May time frame and might go to cash to re-balance.

The other thing to ask yourself is: how much upside remains?

 

[DblDoc]

IMO - stick with a disciplined rebalancing plan. You will capture gains on the way up. Don't try to time the market.

So much wise advice in such a short post but oh so difficult for many to execute.

DD

 

[Spanky]

So much wise advice in such a short post but oh so difficult for many to execute.

DD

The reason is that the fear of losing takes over rationality.

 

[Spanky]

The other thing to ask yourself is: how much upside remains?

Not much according to most forecasts out there in the net. However, how accurate or creditable are these forecasts? In the final analysis, no one knows for sure. We can always guess.

 

[ripper1]

ripper1

Whenever my taxable account gains 10% I cash it in and pay down the mortgage.

Poof. Now your money is lost in the walls of your house.

 

[FIREd]

C'est dommage!

Perhaps I wasn't clear. I have a ton of vested company stock options that are well in the money and I need to exercise them in order to take advantage of the relatively low tax rates until the end of the year. I will sell the stock upon exercising the option (same-day-sale) because otherwise, company stock would overwhelm the rest of my portfolio. So I am selling because the stock (which is a speculative small cap) has done very, very well and I am locking in a tidy profit. I have new options vesting every month, so if the stock keeps doing well, I'll keep reaping the reward. If it doesn't, at least I am limiting the downside risk. I think I can live with that!

 

[Rambler]

Perhaps I wasn't clear. I have a ton of vested company stock options that are well in the money and I need to exercise them in order to take advantage of the relatively low tax rates until the end of the year. I will sell the stock upon exercising the option (same-day-sale) because otherwise, company stock would overwhelm the rest of my portfolio. So I am selling because the stock (which is a speculative small cap) has done very, very well and I am locking in a tidy profit. I have new options vesting every month, so if the stock keeps doing well, I'll keep reaping the reward. If it doesn't, at least I am limiting the downside risk. I think I can live with that!

Exactly. Keeping your eggs all in one basket is never a good idea, i.e., tying up your career AND (too much of) your personal fortune in the same company as your career.

...don't ask me how I know this...

R

 

[heyduke]

well seeing as how i am going to be FIRE'd in the next year this is my year to consolidate and reduce risk so yes I will be selling quite a bit this year and storing some cash on the sidelines... now this will only be temporary until i find a nice niche for the $$$

 

[easysurfer]

Sell in May? Or did you mean mayday-mayday-mayday?