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Sell in May this year?
Old 03-25-2010, 05:31 PM   #1
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Sell in May this year?

I am not what anyone would call a stock market wonk. Now that I got that out of the way, on to sell in May. The stats seem to say that this is a good strategy. Not always, but enough that my conservative side is tempting me. I did not last year, because I figured the market was down so bad that it did not make since.

So the question is how about this year? If you are a 'sell in May' type guy, is this a hold year or sell year?
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Old 03-25-2010, 05:57 PM   #2
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For me, it's a sell in May year. YMMV.

Disclaimer: I will be selling a lot in May/June or before, since I have a lot of vested options in former mega-corps's stock that I must exercise or lose before June 30.
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Old 03-25-2010, 08:17 PM   #3
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I am not what anyone would call a stock market wonk. Now that I got that out of the way, on to sell in May. The stats seem to say that this is a good strategy. Not always, but enough that my conservative side is tempting me.
So the question is how about this year? If you are a 'sell in May' type guy, is this a hold year or sell year?
May 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009: "I'm going to sell because no one has a job, their homes are all being foreclosed, the banks are all going to be nationalized, the dollar will be worth less than toilet paper, and the market sucks!"

May 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010: "I'm going to sell because the market can't possibly go any higher!!"

Either way you're right.

Besides "sell in May" is so much more pleasing to the ear than "buy & hold in November"...
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Old 03-25-2010, 08:23 PM   #4
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Well, considering the recent meltdown, I think it's a good idea to lock in what you can. So, I'm planning on selling this year's gain in May. The market always goes up, until it doesn't. My buy and hold strategy has changed to a buy and try to keep it strategy.
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Old 03-25-2010, 08:44 PM   #5
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Heh, if I didn't sell during the last down turn I don't think I'll ever sell again. At least until I need some money to spend.
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Old 03-25-2010, 08:55 PM   #6
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My buy and hold strategy has changed to a buy and try to keep it strategy.
Mine too.

When to sell is the $64,000 question! There was that huge run up in September that scares me. Are all those buyers going to sell when they hit the LTCG tax range?
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Old 03-25-2010, 09:36 PM   #7
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Sell in August!

August 10, 2010 to be precise. That is when the next major down leg will start, and it's predicted to be a doozy : 2010 Bradley Turn Dates | Bradley Siderograph | Astrology, Donald Bradley, Arch Crawford & Peter Eliades

The Mar 1 turn date prediction was pretty good - that is the day animal spirits started in earnest. This article implied it was supposed to turn down, but it was supposed to change direction strongly according to other folks. Bradley Turn Date is Upon Us - Mark W. Guthner, CFA -- Seeking Alpha

You never know about these predictions, but 8/10/10 sounds as good as any to me. That is perhaps when people will realize that the second half economy ain't looking so hot.

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Old 03-25-2010, 10:11 PM   #8
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Maybe so Audrey, one never knows. Only thing I know is that any time I try to time the market I'm usually wrong. I'm just going to sit, close my eyes and hope for the best. I guess that's why they make PT jobs.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:23 PM   #9
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Heh, if I didn't sell during the last down turn I don't think I'll ever sell again. At least until I need some money to spend.
Yep. Some folks came VERY close to selling at the bottom but managed to hang on.

Once again, I'm happy with my AA and I'm sticking with it. Probably.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:27 PM   #10
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Yeah, can you imagine that some people were really going to sell at the bottom, what were they thinking!
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:36 PM   #11
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Maybe so Audrey, one never knows. Only thing I know is that any time I try to time the market I'm usually wrong. I'm just going to sit, close my eyes and hope for the best. I guess that's why they make PT jobs.
Oh - I'm horrible at it too!!!! The above is just for fun!

That's why I own a bit of everything and just rebalance when things get out of whack.

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Old 03-25-2010, 11:09 PM   #12
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I have been selling equities steadily since the beginning of the year and will continue to sell as long as the market holds up. That's because I have way too many vested options that are well in the money and messing up my AA. I also will have to make changes to my portfolio in advance of changes in the tax code coming in 2011. That means selling a bunch of dividend-paying stocks that I hold in my taxable account, though I don't really know when I am going to pull the trigger on that.
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Old 03-26-2010, 07:03 AM   #13
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I have been selling equities steadily since the beginning of the year and will continue to sell as long as the market holds up. That's because I have way too many vested options that are well in the money and messing up my AA.
C'est dommage!
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Old 03-26-2010, 08:46 AM   #14
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C'est dommage!
Yes it is.

As for me?

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Old 03-26-2010, 09:11 AM   #15
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My AA is a tad short of 74% equity. Time to sell rebalance?

I feel like gambling taking some risks. It makes life exciting!

Sell in May? How did that work out in the past? What was the record? And what if it is "different this time"?
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Old 03-26-2010, 11:23 AM   #16
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Originally Posted by Rustic23 View Post
I am not what anyone would call a stock market wonk. Now that I got that out of the way, on to sell in May. The stats seem to say that this is a good strategy. Not always, but enough that my conservative side is tempting me. I did not last year, because I figured the market was down so bad that it did not make since.

So the question is how about this year? If you are a 'sell in May' type guy, is this a hold year or sell year?
If you did sell, what would you do with the proceeds?
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Old 03-26-2010, 12:50 PM   #17
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If I sell in May, I would leave the money in money market till Nov. then back in the market..... or maybe not, depending on how things looked in Nov. While this may be market timing, I think of it more a trend following.
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Old 03-26-2010, 01:07 PM   #18
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Whenever my taxable account gains 10% I cash it in and pay down the mortgage.
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Old 03-26-2010, 01:09 PM   #19
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If I sell in May, I would leave the money in money market till Nov. then back in the market..... or maybe not, depending on how things looked in Nov. While this may be market timing, I think of it more a trend following.
Problem is, things always look better or worse than they really are, it's really hard to tell which it is at any time, and that will be no different in Nov than it is today. It's more effective to have a plan and just stick to it.
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Old 03-26-2010, 02:28 PM   #20
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If I sell in May, I would leave the money in money market till Nov. then back in the market..... or maybe not, depending on how things looked in Nov. While this may be market timing, I think of it more a trend following.
While this may be market timing??...yeah, that is the definition of market timing.

Not that that's a bad thing. If it works out for you.
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