|
|
03-25-2010, 04:31 PM
|
#1
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 4,204
|
Sell in May this year?
I am not what anyone would call a stock market wonk. Now that I got that out of the way, on to sell in May. The stats seem to say that this is a good strategy. Not always, but enough that my conservative side is tempting me. I did not last year, because I figured the market was down so bad that it did not make since.
So the question is how about this year? If you are a 'sell in May' type guy, is this a hold year or sell year?
__________________
If it is after 5:00 when I post I reserve the right to disavow anything I posted.
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
03-25-2010, 04:57 PM
|
#2
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,769
|
For me, it's a sell in May year. YMMV.
Disclaimer: I will be selling a lot in May/June or before, since I have a lot of vested options in former mega-corps's stock that I must exercise or lose before June 30.
__________________
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
|
|
|
03-25-2010, 07:17 PM
|
#3
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,860
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic23
I am not what anyone would call a stock market wonk. Now that I got that out of the way, on to sell in May. The stats seem to say that this is a good strategy. Not always, but enough that my conservative side is tempting me.
So the question is how about this year? If you are a 'sell in May' type guy, is this a hold year or sell year?
|
May 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009: "I'm going to sell because no one has a job, their homes are all being foreclosed, the banks are all going to be nationalized, the dollar will be worth less than toilet paper, and the market sucks!"
May 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010: "I'm going to sell because the market can't possibly go any higher!!"
Either way you're right.
Besides "sell in May" is so much more pleasing to the ear than "buy & hold in November"...
__________________
*
Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
|
|
|
03-25-2010, 07:23 PM
|
#4
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: DFW
Posts: 2,016
|
Well, considering the recent meltdown, I think it's a good idea to lock in what you can. So, I'm planning on selling this year's gain in May. The market always goes up, until it doesn't. My buy and hold strategy has changed to a buy and try to keep it strategy.
__________________
Resist much. Obey Little. . . . Ed Abbey
Disclaimer: My Posts are for my amusement only.
|
|
|
03-25-2010, 07:44 PM
|
#5
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
|
Heh, if I didn't sell during the last down turn I don't think I'll ever sell again. At least until I need some money to spend.
|
|
|
03-25-2010, 07:55 PM
|
#6
|
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 587
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eagle43
My buy and hold strategy has changed to a buy and try to keep it strategy.
|
Mine too.
When to sell is the $64,000 question! There was that huge run up in September that scares me. Are all those buyers going to sell when they hit the LTCG tax range?
|
|
|
03-25-2010, 09:11 PM
|
#8
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
|
Maybe so Audrey, one never knows. Only thing I know is that any time I try to time the market I'm usually wrong. I'm just going to sit, close my eyes and hope for the best. I guess that's why they make PT jobs.
|
|
|
03-25-2010, 09:23 PM
|
#9
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,022
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by 73ss454
Heh, if I didn't sell during the last down turn I don't think I'll ever sell again. At least until I need some money to spend.
|
Yep. Some folks came VERY close to selling at the bottom but managed to hang on.
Once again, I'm happy with my AA and I'm sticking with it. Probably.
__________________
Numbers is hard
|
|
|
03-25-2010, 09:27 PM
|
#10
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
|
Yeah, can you imagine that some people were really going to sell at the bottom, what were they thinking!
|
|
|
03-25-2010, 09:36 PM
|
#11
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,154
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by 73ss454
Maybe so Audrey, one never knows. Only thing I know is that any time I try to time the market I'm usually wrong. I'm just going to sit, close my eyes and hope for the best. I guess that's why they make PT jobs.
|
Oh - I'm horrible at it too!!!! The above is just for fun!
That's why I own a bit of everything and just rebalance when things get out of whack.
Audrey
|
|
|
03-25-2010, 10:09 PM
|
#12
|
Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
|
I have been selling equities steadily since the beginning of the year and will continue to sell as long as the market holds up. That's because I have way too many vested options that are well in the money and messing up my AA. I also will have to make changes to my portfolio in advance of changes in the tax code coming in 2011. That means selling a bunch of dividend-paying stocks that I hold in my taxable account, though I don't really know when I am going to pull the trigger on that.
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 06:03 AM
|
#13
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer
I have been selling equities steadily since the beginning of the year and will continue to sell as long as the market holds up. That's because I have way too many vested options that are well in the money and messing up my AA.
|
C'est dommage!
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 07:46 AM
|
#14
|
gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
C'est dommage!
|
Yes it is.
As for me?
Je n'ai rien fait durant la récession ...
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 08:11 AM
|
#15
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
|
My AA is a tad short of 74% equity. Time to sell rebalance?
I feel like gambling taking some risks. It makes life exciting!
Sell in May? How did that work out in the past? What was the record? And what if it is "different this time"?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 10:23 AM
|
#16
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,726
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic23
I am not what anyone would call a stock market wonk. Now that I got that out of the way, on to sell in May. The stats seem to say that this is a good strategy. Not always, but enough that my conservative side is tempting me. I did not last year, because I figured the market was down so bad that it did not make since.
So the question is how about this year? If you are a 'sell in May' type guy, is this a hold year or sell year?
|
If you did sell, what would you do with the proceeds?
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 11:50 AM
|
#17
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 4,204
|
If I sell in May, I would leave the money in money market till Nov. then back in the market..... or maybe not, depending on how things looked in Nov. While this may be market timing, I think of it more a trend following.
__________________
If it is after 5:00 when I post I reserve the right to disavow anything I posted.
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 12:07 PM
|
#18
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,872
|
Whenever my taxable account gains 10% I cash it in and pay down the mortgage.
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 12:09 PM
|
#19
|
Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,726
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic23
If I sell in May, I would leave the money in money market till Nov. then back in the market..... or maybe not, depending on how things looked in Nov. While this may be market timing, I think of it more a trend following.
|
Problem is, things always look better or worse than they really are, it's really hard to tell which it is at any time, and that will be no different in Nov than it is today. It's more effective to have a plan and just stick to it.
|
|
|
03-26-2010, 01:28 PM
|
#20
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 2,115
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic23
If I sell in May, I would leave the money in money market till Nov. then back in the market..... or maybe not, depending on how things looked in Nov. While this may be market timing, I think of it more a trend following.
|
While this may be market timing??...yeah, that is the definition of market timing.
Not that that's a bad thing. If it works out for you.
__________________
“Of all the paths you take in life, make sure a few of them are dirt.” John Muir
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|