Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 02-03-2009, 10:40 AM   #21
Recycles dryer sheets
ratface's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 212
I just got back in a few days ago at 7% of my fixed holding. I plan to start DCA from the fixed money very slowly. That said I am very conservative and don't normally take big risks but I'm thinking that stocks are a real value right now and don't want to miss totally out. I'm only at 12% in stocks, as I said I'm very conservative and in my 457 its very easy to move stuff around. I hope to do another 7% in 30 days or so?
__________________

__________________
ratface is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-03-2009, 10:46 AM   #22
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11,044
Quote:
Originally Posted by Architect View Post
Off topic, it's interesting that I hear people on this board frequently make prognostications, such as 'Treasury bonds are going to get hammered' or 'yields are too low', but they don't get called out for that forecast. But if you make a judgment call on stocks people quickly remind you that you can't predict the future.
Since I feel it was directed at me, let me answer.

This is no prognostication. It was a statement of opinion. I said that "yields on treasuries are unattractive IMO". You may disagree, but it doesn't change the fact that treasury yields are near historic lows and that I'd rather seek higher yielding investments.

I also said that "treasuries seem pretty risky at the moment". This is clearly a judgement call on my part (as reflected by the use of "seem"), based on the fact that long term treasuries have lost almost 9% in a single month.

On this board, I have learned a long time ago not to make definitive statements (i.e. "treasuries are a bad investment") without solid evidence to backup my argument or without expressly stating that this is merely my opinion (which I believe I am still entitled to). Feel free to disagree with me all you want.
__________________

__________________
FIREd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 10:51 AM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Moemg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 10,036
Last year I sold some stock but instead of having a loss I ended up with a nice bill for Capital gains so the only selling I'm doing is in my IRA until I learn more about how to avoid taxes .
__________________
Moemg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 10:52 AM   #24
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,487
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Since you brought the subject up, perhaps that sentiment is particularly focused on those who frequently and repeatedly remind us of their past successes and ability to time the market. A few examples (there are many more but this makes my point):




You didn't register on the forum until 11/19/2008 so how are we to confirm your predictive abilities?

And even the About Me section of your profile includes:
Geez, REWahoo, that's not fair. You're paying attention and keeping track!
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 10:53 AM   #25
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
Geez, REWahoo, that's not fair. You're paying attention and keeping track!
Yeah, he's pretty funny that way.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 10:53 AM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
I can't imagine wanting to lock in my losses like that.

I do understand wanting to DO SOMETHING. But I guess that doing nothing is the best I can come up with.

It's going to get better.
Yep. I can almost hear the hum of of those little Vanguard computers rebalancing my Target Retirement clear out here in Kansas City. Can't make out the tune but I'm sure it's catchy.

Mardi Gras is Feb 24 this year, then Jazz Fest and can Spring be far behind. So get your snow sking in while you can.

heh heh heh - if Market fluction actually tears you up emotionally - maybe Google up Zvi Bodie and research his inflation protected/TIPS type portfolio.. More than one way to skin a cat. Heck I've known people who retired on rental RE and CD's. .
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 11:05 AM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bimmerbill's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,631
I was actually thinking of buying the special gov't bonds (G fund) in my TSP (gov't 401K) instead of the stock funds.

But then I realized that if I was going to discount history (stocks being a good long term investment) and embrace a new investment strategy (bonds only) there may be other fundamental "rules" I would have to change in my mind (the economy, home ownership, social spending, etc).

I don't have the mental energy for that right now, so will stick with stocks. Hope it doesn't turn out that I'm burying my head in the sand...
__________________
Bimmerbill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 11:22 AM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Purron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,584
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
Yeah, he's pretty funny that way.
Makes me afraid to look back at some of my past posts. I know I've said my fair share of dumb stuff
__________________
I purr therefore I am.
Purron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 11:27 AM   #29
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,386
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
I almost did in October 2007...
Maybe you did sell out, but want to spare the feelings of us losers?
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 04:06 PM   #30
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,862
Although my cash and gold woked out better, I did kind of screw up my bear market fund (bearx) timing. I bought it in 2007, expecting a recession in 2008. The S&P500 gained about 10% after I bought the fund. Now it had to drop about 9% before I even broke even. That's as close as I could call the top.

The S&P500 then lost close to 20% and the media was acknowledging that consumer debt was too high, savings had to increase, and spending was obviouly going to drop. I held on, but the market rose about 10% after that. At that point everything I was expecting seemed to be out in the open, the market had pretty much hit bear territory, and had risen substantially to right about the point where I had bought the bear market fund. So I went ahead and sold the fund and went back to normal equity funds. There was one rebablance I was able to make between the buy and sell, so I did make something with that at least. I sold the gold (fsagx, not the metal) at the same time, but it was up 38% at time and then fell with the market, so that was good timing even if it was luck.

So two keys to timing: hit the peak and hit the bottom. Miss the peak and the bottom by just 10% and you could have a bear market and not make anything. I'm not sure I would bother trying that again, but starting retirement into an expected recession made it seem reasonable at the time.

I did better with my cash, though the primary reason I was taking out cash was to fund the first couple of years of retirement during the expected recession. My largest equity to cash conversion was within a few percent of the peak, the rest was again about 10% early. When the market went below 20% for good and DW decided she would continue working, I divided the cash (minus 2 years living costs) into 5 equal parts and invested one part each time the market hit another 5% down (from the peak). That took me to 45% from the peak (I skipped 40% since it happened so fast), at which time I added HELOC borrowed money for another 2 steps down to 55% using mostly ETF's. I was adding money 11/20/08 at the bottom (so far), so that ended up pretty well. I have used some of the reserved money to buy cheaper ETF shares during dips and sell the more expensive shares at peaks.

I have maintained my AA and rebalanced at my trigger points (+/-20% imbalance for any fund) during all this, other than having cash when I'm nominally 100% equities.

I always set a target point where I will buy or sell equities. It is impossible (for me) to know if any point is a peak or bottom. I just try to be within about 5%-10% of the bottom by buying all the way down. I don't want to wait until the market is 20% above the bottom and then jump in. There's still no guarantee it will continue up instead of going back down again. And you know the bottom will be when things look absolutely terrible.

As it is, I will have some shares I can sell at a gain even if the market just slowly rises out of this recession. Probably good enough to match my retirement projections at least, but hopefully better! If the market starts exceeding my retirement projections I'll be able to convert to cash again and be ready for any future dips (I hope). I will definitely continue doing that.
__________________
Animorph is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 04:36 PM   #31
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,440
I know nothing about nothing. So I'm staying put. Hope to break even one day. Pretty pitiful, I know.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 05:38 PM   #32
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,905
All my feeble attempts at market timing in the past seem to have resulted in my selling at the bottom and buying at the top (Gold at $850 an ounce back in 1980 anyone?). I actually started making progress in this RE/FI stuff when I decided on an asset allocation and just stuck with it with occasional rebalancing when things got too bad out of quilter. Starting my 7th year of RE and still ahead of where I was when I retired so AA works for me so far...
__________________
ejman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 07:53 PM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Following the nice weather
Posts: 6,439
I'm selling out completely and going all in on guitars. I've got a special deal on a 1969 Fender Stratocaster, original pick-ups, maple neck, strung upside down for a left-handed mfing genius, Jimi Hendrix.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Will Rogers, or maybe Sam Clemens
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 09:40 PM   #34
Moderator
Alan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Eee Bah Gum
Posts: 21,135
Quote:
Originally Posted by ferco View Post
Has anyone within the past month or so sold their entire stock portfolio and just gone with fixed income (CD/MM/ Treasuries) and wait for the tide to settle. I imagine this is easier with a IRA than in a taxable account from an accounting(tax) standpoint.
Nope.

I'm still counting on a pension to fund 60% of my needs so I can understand the pressure for others who don't have this backstop. I have not sold any equities and hope that they will come back over the next 10 years before I may need to tap them.

However, nothing is certain and if my pension were to go up in smoke before I retire next year I may have to think again but still can't see myself selling all my equities.
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Now it's adventure before dementia
Alan is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 07:07 AM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Indialantic FL
Posts: 1,201
Article in the Jan Issue of the American Association of Individual Investors Journal entitled " Stocks for the Long Term : Why Propsects are Rosy"

"We emphasize two things that investors should not do now. First, do not bail out of the stock market...."

Authors suggested that individuals already retired should rebalance back to their strategic asset allocation, and some who have the risk tolerance and nest egg to do so may want to make a tactical over allocation to stocks 5-10% above their strategic allocation.

Another quote "We suspect that many investors let emotions rule the day, which causes them to follow the buy-high-and-sell-low strategy."

Authors are Dale L Domian and William Reichenstein.

Like many I failed to take huge gains during the tech bubble, then stubbornly held on til I realized huge real losses. I guess looking at all the unrealized losses that I have today, I'm probably more like the average investor that I'd like to think.

Jim
__________________
jimnjana is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 08:56 AM   #36
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 131
I recall plenty of posts where people talk about their success. Isn't that the one of the points? Share your successes and failures? I've talked about my failures such as during the dot.com bust - but wait a minute, before REWahoo consults the history channel, maybe I'm forgetting and I did that on another group.

But I suppose it's comes down to "It's better to be conventionally wrong than unconventionally right".
__________________
Architect is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 09:08 PM   #37
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,862
This should be pretty simple. If you sell now and buy back when the market is up another 20% and looking more positive, all you've done is miss out on a 20% gain. If you sell now and are lucky enough to see the market go down 20% to new lows, are you ready to buy? That's the only way selling now makes sense. Buy low, sell high.
__________________
Animorph is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-04-2009, 09:26 PM   #38
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,386
Quote:
Originally Posted by Architect View Post
But I suppose it's comes down to "It's better to be conventionally wrong than unconventionally right".
Architect, we're rooting for you! Sock it to us baby!
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 08:09 AM   #39
Moderator
Sarah in SC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,456
I hope to outlive the rest of you. That is my only prognostication!
__________________
“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way

Sarah in SC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-05-2009, 12:17 PM   #40
Recycles dryer sheets
bigla's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Mt. Pleasant
Posts: 138
Ferco, I am thinking about it but terrible anxious and confused. I'm aware of all the arguments about selling off equities now. I feel the market is going to sink even lower and stay that way for awhile. So, do I park some/all of my equity funds in a safe place even if it's earning a miserable return but not losing anything and get back in when the market reaches these or somewhat better levels again and hope it isn't just a false rally or do I stay the course and have to wait I don't know how many - but many, years before I can recoup the losses. While I am not entirely dependent on my IRA money, I do need some of it to supplement meager pensions. Too young for SS yet. I do have 3-4 years of cash in MM.
The bad news seems to be getting worse every day and it doesn't seem that the stimulus/bailout money is going to produce good enough results.
Good luck either way.
Larry
__________________

__________________
Retired early and loving it.
bigla is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Anyone selling Berkshire........... cardude FIRE and Money 13 12-01-2007 01:55 PM
Selling Gold yakers Stock Picking and Market Strategy 4 11-14-2007 10:05 PM
Selling used car WanderALot Other topics 11 10-23-2007 10:57 PM
Instead of selling home Sam Other topics 16 01-15-2007 11:49 PM
Selling shares to yourself lazyday FIRE and Money 17 12-20-2005 05:01 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:54 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.