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Old 01-29-2014, 05:33 AM   #41
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Finally, I decided to play my trump card and fired up my Time Machine. Alas, it is broken and the part it needs won't be made until 2347. So, I can't help answer the question.

Have you checked eBay?
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Old 01-29-2014, 07:54 AM   #42
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Yup. It's right here: 60mm Stand Asian RARE Natural Quartz Clear Magic Crystal Healing Ball Sphere | eBay
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Old 01-29-2014, 09:28 AM   #43
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That's a hell-of-a-buy for $13. Might have to get me one.......
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Old 01-29-2014, 10:50 AM   #44
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Asian Rare Natural Quartz Clear Magic Crystal Healing Ball Sphere 40mm + Stand

Besides being able to see the future, this one will heal all hurts:

Asian RARE Natural Quartz Clear Magic Crystal Healing Ball Sphere 40mm Stand | eBay

Plus, it is RARE!
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Old 01-29-2014, 01:54 PM   #45
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Most of these threads the responses are usually of the mocking variety because of the difficulty in determing what is actually going to happen. But I think it is pretty clear there is a much higher risk of a significant market correction first just because of the relief of the 5 year stock rise from 2009 and secondly because of the overinvolvement in the finances of the world by central banks everywhere in attempting to prop up prices. There is another year of million dollar Fed purchases in the US and another year of major stock advances, that eventually will be offset in some manner combining these two points makes for a much much higher risk of an event than a year ago.

Benjamin Graham advocated making an estimation of whether a market is over or undervalued in allocating percentages of your portfolio to stocks and I agree with that process.

The last 5 years has seen the biggest experiment in Central Bank planning of world wide interest rates that has ever occured. I think if a bubble exists today it is clearly a bubble of Central Bank purchases of government debt everywhere as a means of maintaining stable demand. The misallocation of capital that occurs over such a prolonged period will inevitably have unintended consequenses.

A few signs of popping is occurring in the emerging markets, whether the central banks hold this together for a few more years is very possible, but at some point a crisis will hit where investors lose faith in the banks, this has occured since the dawn of banks and the globalization of this process increases the risk of a 90% wipeout of stocks worldwide. This is not to say I am predicting a 90% wipeout of stocks worldwide, that would be foolish to say with the bankers of the world all lined up to stop it, but the likelihood of that an evento of that magnitude occurring has probably never been higher in the history of finance. And I do not believe very many people are positioned to be able to withstand a 90% drop in stock prices.

Now before a response of if this happens we will all be having MRE's and shotguns, remember there are several total wipeouts of stock markets around the world where Jeremy Siegel and others are using of proof of the Triumph of Stocks over the long run, so a 90% decline is never the end of the world, merely a financial event that in the past has proven to be an excellent monment of opportunity for those positioned to do so, but so very few people are ever positioned to be able to take advantage of that point, because of the universal belief beforehand to hold such a belief is foolish.
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Old 01-29-2014, 02:24 PM   #46
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Now before a response of if this happens we will all be having MRE's and shotguns, remember there are several total wipeouts of stock markets around the world where Jeremy Siegel and others are using of proof of the Triumph of Stocks over the long run, so a 90% decline is never the end of the world, merely a financial event that in the past has proven to be an excellent monment of opportunity for those positioned to do so, but so very few people are ever positioned to be able to take advantage of that point, because of the universal belief beforehand to hold such a belief is foolish.

I agree we're not looking at the end of the world if the market crashes, but things could get nasty. If you look at Japan, their market never really rebounded and they've been battling deflation. They are now trying to induce inflation after two decades to try to get their economies engine started. I believe we're seeing the beginning of a possible currency war unfolding in Asia, that may spread our way. Here in the US, retirees on fixed income may be at risk because of the huge balance sheet the Fed has created and the possibility of inflation resulting from it. If buyers of our bonds stop buying, we'll see the government print more money in an effort to devalue the dollar. Unexpected consequences are what should concern us most since the Fed and the government don't have very good track records with them.
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Old 01-29-2014, 04:24 PM   #47
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I agree we're not looking at the end of the world if the market crashes, but things could get nasty. If you look at Japan, their market never really rebounded and they've been battling deflation. They are now trying to induce inflation after two decades to try to get their economies engine started. I believe we're seeing the beginning of a possible currency war unfolding in Asia, that may spread our way. Here in the US, retirees on fixed income may be at risk because of the huge balance sheet the Fed has created and the possibility of inflation resulting from it. If buyers of our bonds stop buying, we'll see the government print more money in an effort to devalue the dollar. Unexpected consequences are what should concern us most since the Fed and the government don't have very good track records with them.
Is this another gloom-and-doom outlook?
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Old 01-29-2014, 05:18 PM   #48
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Is this another gloom-and-doom outlook?

Gloom and doom? Well, I guess that depends on what you mean by gloom and doom. The Fed balance sheet is holding trillions of dollars while keeping interest rates artificially low. Sovereign debt around the globe is growing rapidly and faster than GDP growth as central banks print money and monetize the debt. Do you think things will continue moving along the same as they have been for the past four years?

The system is unstable. Eventually buyers of our debt will draw the line and stop. Inflation will rise as our government tries to devalue the dollar in an effort to increase exports to fight rising unemployment. Retirees living off of fixed income will be screwed. Or,If you look at what has happened in Japan, their economy has been deflationary or stagnant for two decades and their debt is up to 240% of their GDP. Their stock market has been flat. They are trying to increase inflation to get their economy moving again and other Asian countries are concerned about their devaluing the Yen. Because of their aging population, they can't grow their workforce to grow the economy unless they find huge productivity increases in other ways.

So if by doom and gloom you're expecting zombies, no, there's no worry for that. No civil war or apocalypse. But there will be some hard times for many.

But you can brush this off as just another gloom and doom story if you want and I hope you're right. But I'm staying out of bonds and keeping a lot of cash to be able to ride out any volatility. My stock picks will be strong companies that will keep customers regardless of a financial crisis and will be able to increase prices when inflation,Ickes in. Nothing may happen, or nothing may happen for ten years, but I bet something will.
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Old 01-29-2014, 05:26 PM   #49
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Is this another gloom-and-doom outlook?
Stick to your plan, Spanky, because nobody knows nothing.
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Old 01-29-2014, 06:20 PM   #50
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Stick to your plan, Spanky, because nobody knows nothing.
That sounds like a reasonable approach.
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Old 01-30-2014, 06:43 AM   #51
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But you can brush this off as just another gloom and doom story if you want and I hope you're right. But I'm staying out of bonds and keeping a lot of cash to be able to ride out any volatility. My stock picks will be strong companies that will keep customers regardless of a financial crisis and will be able to increase prices when inflation,Ickes in. Nothing may happen, or nothing may happen for ten years, but I bet something will.
I agree with your direction of picking strong companies, and having a cash reserve now.

How did you decide on a certain percentage of cash at this time?
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