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11-06-2008, 09:28 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 322
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Should Be Obvious By Now
In his latest newsletter PIMCO chief Bill Gross points out that we were all trained by a 25-year secular bull market to buy on dips. But he says,"those that define it by 'dip buying' or a secular time frame encompassing only the past quarter century, are certainly self-limiting and perhaps lacking in common sense."
Gross points out that we are not now at the end of a "double-digit"
inflation era or at the end of a government strangulation of initiative like the early 1980's.
We are also, I would point out, not in the recovery period after the "dot-com bomb", 9/11, or the 1st Iraq war. All of which were somewhat easy to see as limited.
I remember my wife saying as the 1st Iraq war started and the market dropped, "Who do you think is going to win, Iraq or The United States of America and the rest of the world?" We bought with both hands then.
Not your father's stock market anymore. That's my view anyway.
b.
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11-06-2008, 09:34 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boont
Gross points out that we are not now at the end of a "double-digit"
inflation era or at the end of a government strangulation of initiative like the early 1980's.
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Did he point out where we are instead of what we are not?
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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11-06-2008, 09:45 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
Did he point out where we are instead of what we are not?
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Like perhaps in the midst of a general realignment of value that brings prices back to where they should have been after years of debt and cheap money driven run ups? That will eventually begin (slower this time?) another upward trend as new technologies arise to propel the market? Maybe?
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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11-06-2008, 09:46 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Maybe it will get worse and worse. Perhaps this is it the beginning of the end. Perhaps tomorrow the world will get hit by a super flu or an asteroid. No one not even Bill knows what the future will really hold :P
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11-06-2008, 09:47 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boont
In his latest newsletter PIMCO chief Bill Gross points out that we were all trained by a 25-year secular bull market to buy on dips. But he says,"those that define it by 'dip buying' or a secular time frame encompassing only the past quarter century, are certainly self-limiting and perhaps lacking in common sense."
Gross points out that we are not now at the end of a "double-digit"
inflation era or at the end of a government strangulation of initiative like the early 1980's.
We are also, I would point out, not in the recovery period after the "dot-com bomb", 9/11, or the 1st Iraq war. All of which were somewhat easy to see as limited.
I remember my wife saying as the 1st Iraq war started and the market dropped, "Who do you think is going to win, Iraq or The United States of America and the rest of the world?" We bought with both hands then.
Not your father's stock market anymore. That's my view anyway.
b.
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To me this sounds like fear created by events. The carnage that we are seeling today pretty well discounts anything short of nuclear war, IMO.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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11-06-2008, 09:59 PM
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#6
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 37
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Maybe I am one of those "lacking in common sense" to understand Bill Gross's common sense, but what exactly is he saying?
That the stock market will be pathetic over the next several years? That we should all be investing in PIMCO bonds?
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11-07-2008, 01:22 AM
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#7
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 322
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Fearful Events
All I can say is, what I've said before. If you haven't been right, at least once, in the last two years, you should at least consider being a little humble.
boont
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11-07-2008, 03:17 AM
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#8
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 534
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My father, 1925 -2004, was investing/ed during the '66 -'82 period, he endured the '73-74 Bear and the crash of '87 and even the 50% wipeout of the S&P in 2000-2002. He had childhood memories of what life was actually like in the Great Depression. Perhaps the 2 years he spent in combat over the skies of Europe in WWII gave him a better perspective of what a "nice" life really is.
Nope it's not my father's stock market any more.
__________________
Never surrender what you really want for what you want right now.
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11-07-2008, 09:29 AM
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#9
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,855
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boont
In his latest newsletter PIMCO chief Bill Gross points out that we were all trained by a 25-year secular bull market to buy on dips.
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I'll start reading Bill Gross again when his Dow 5000 prediction happens.
While it's hypothetically possible that I'll start reading his essays again, I don't think I'll ever comprehend them. He's even worse than Greenspan.
__________________
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Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
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11-07-2008, 09:53 AM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
I'll start reading Bill Gross again when his Dow 5000 prediction happens.
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Yep, and when he made that prediction back in 2003, he ignored the fact that the yield on the S&P 500 was greater than that available in money market funds, as is the case today. Remember, Bill Gross is a bond guy, not an equity guy.
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11-07-2008, 10:55 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boont
In his latest newsletter PIMCO chief Bill Gross points out that we were all trained by a 25-year secular bull market to buy on dips.
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I would contend that the secular bull ended in 2000, not 2007.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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11-07-2008, 05:42 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boont
In his latest newsletter PIMCO chief Bill Gross points out . . .
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Any chance the "Bond King" is suggesting that folks . . . .(hold on to your hats) . . . buy bond?!?!
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11-07-2008, 06:00 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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