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Should Be Obvious By Now
Old 11-06-2008, 10:28 PM   #1
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Should Be Obvious By Now

In his latest newsletter PIMCO chief Bill Gross points out that we were all trained by a 25-year secular bull market to buy on dips. But he says,"those that define it by 'dip buying' or a secular time frame encompassing only the past quarter century, are certainly self-limiting and perhaps lacking in common sense."

Gross points out that we are not now at the end of a "double-digit"
inflation era or at the end of a government strangulation of initiative like the early 1980's.

We are also, I would point out, not in the recovery period after the "dot-com bomb", 9/11, or the 1st Iraq war. All of which were somewhat easy to see as limited.

I remember my wife saying as the 1st Iraq war started and the market dropped, "Who do you think is going to win, Iraq or The United States of America and the rest of the world?" We bought with both hands then.

Not your father's stock market anymore. That's my view anyway.

b.
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Old 11-06-2008, 10:34 PM   #2
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Gross points out that we are not now at the end of a "double-digit"
inflation era or at the end of a government strangulation of initiative like the early 1980's.
.
Did he point out where we are instead of what we are not?
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Old 11-06-2008, 10:45 PM   #3
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Did he point out where we are instead of what we are not?
Like perhaps in the midst of a general realignment of value that brings prices back to where they should have been after years of debt and cheap money driven run ups? That will eventually begin (slower this time?) another upward trend as new technologies arise to propel the market? Maybe?
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Old 11-06-2008, 10:46 PM   #4
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Maybe it will get worse and worse. Perhaps this is it the beginning of the end. Perhaps tomorrow the world will get hit by a super flu or an asteroid. No one not even Bill knows what the future will really hold :P
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Old 11-06-2008, 10:47 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by boont View Post
In his latest newsletter PIMCO chief Bill Gross points out that we were all trained by a 25-year secular bull market to buy on dips. But he says,"those that define it by 'dip buying' or a secular time frame encompassing only the past quarter century, are certainly self-limiting and perhaps lacking in common sense."

Gross points out that we are not now at the end of a "double-digit"
inflation era or at the end of a government strangulation of initiative like the early 1980's.

We are also, I would point out, not in the recovery period after the "dot-com bomb", 9/11, or the 1st Iraq war. All of which were somewhat easy to see as limited.

I remember my wife saying as the 1st Iraq war started and the market dropped, "Who do you think is going to win, Iraq or The United States of America and the rest of the world?" We bought with both hands then.

Not your father's stock market anymore. That's my view anyway.

b.
To me this sounds like fear created by events. The carnage that we are seeling today pretty well discounts anything short of nuclear war, IMO.

Ha
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Old 11-06-2008, 10:59 PM   #6
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Maybe I am one of those "lacking in common sense" to understand Bill Gross's common sense, but what exactly is he saying?

That the stock market will be pathetic over the next several years? That we should all be investing in PIMCO bonds?
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Fearful Events
Old 11-07-2008, 02:22 AM   #7
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Fearful Events

All I can say is, what I've said before. If you haven't been right, at least once, in the last two years, you should at least consider being a little humble.

boont
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Old 11-07-2008, 04:17 AM   #8
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My father, 1925 -2004, was investing/ed during the '66 -'82 period, he endured the '73-74 Bear and the crash of '87 and even the 50% wipeout of the S&P in 2000-2002. He had childhood memories of what life was actually like in the Great Depression. Perhaps the 2 years he spent in combat over the skies of Europe in WWII gave him a better perspective of what a "nice" life really is.

Nope it's not my father's stock market any more.
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Old 11-07-2008, 10:29 AM   #9
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In his latest newsletter PIMCO chief Bill Gross points out that we were all trained by a 25-year secular bull market to buy on dips.
I'll start reading Bill Gross again when his Dow 5000 prediction happens.

While it's hypothetically possible that I'll start reading his essays again, I don't think I'll ever comprehend them. He's even worse than Greenspan.
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Old 11-07-2008, 10:53 AM   #10
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I'll start reading Bill Gross again when his Dow 5000 prediction happens.
Yep, and when he made that prediction back in 2003, he ignored the fact that the yield on the S&P 500 was greater than that available in money market funds, as is the case today. Remember, Bill Gross is a bond guy, not an equity guy.
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Old 11-07-2008, 11:55 AM   #11
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In his latest newsletter PIMCO chief Bill Gross points out that we were all trained by a 25-year secular bull market to buy on dips.
I would contend that the secular bull ended in 2000, not 2007.
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Old 11-07-2008, 06:42 PM   #12
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In his latest newsletter PIMCO chief Bill Gross points out . . .
Any chance the "Bond King" is suggesting that folks . . . .(hold on to your hats) . . . buy bond?!?!
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Old 11-07-2008, 07:00 PM   #13
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Any chance the "Bond King" is suggesting that folks . . . .(hold on to your hats) . . . buy bond?!?!
Ya think maybe he will pick the Saint's for the Superbowl and maybe pssst Wellesley to ride this out?

Probably not.

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