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Old 10-13-2008, 04:19 PM   #21
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DOW is up 917 pts as we speak, Wish I had more to invest last week(this is what drove me to the idea). Gotta stop watching the finance site.
The Dow is not the entire market, and one shouldn't make decisions about what to do on the basis of an index of 30 stocks. I wish you well in future investments, but PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, understand what the indices cover before making investment decisions.

-- Rita
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Old 10-13-2008, 04:51 PM   #22
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Rita, I agree with you. I cringe everytime I hear someone refer to the Dow Jones Industrial Average as "the market."
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Old 10-13-2008, 07:42 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by ER_Hopeful View Post
DOW is up 917 pts as we speak, Wish I had more to invest last week(this is what drove me to the idea). Gotta stop watching the finance site.
nobel prize winner paul krugman to jim lehrer on today's steep rise "the market does what the market does...the market doesn't necessarily understand what's happening."
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Old 10-13-2008, 08:33 PM   #24
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I was just thinking about the 'Pay off the House threads'. I wonder how many of those in the 'keep a large mortgage' and invest in stocks are feeling now. More to the point I wonder how their wives feel! Especially if there homes or under water!
I have been keeping mortgages on first and second homes = $1.1 million (which have only a small negative carry) with the thought that this represents an option to buy the market if it were to go down big.

It has gone down bigger than I imagined, yet I still can't pull the trigger. I probably will if we drop 10% from 10/10/08 lows, but if I don't, I know I need to take that money (in muni bonds now) and pay off the mortgages.
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Old 10-13-2008, 08:44 PM   #25
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I stopped taking the needed monthly distributions out of my portfolio a while back and used my HELOC instead. Maybe that was the same thing and rather stupid. No principal payments on a line of credit and I only need to pay the interest which is prime minus 1 on my line.
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Old 10-13-2008, 08:50 PM   #26
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Rita, I agree with you. I cringe everytime I hear someone refer to the Dow Jones Industrial Average as "the market."
I couldn't agree more. I don't know why the press doesn't use the S&P 500 index or, to give a better snapshot of the entire market, the Wilshire 5000, when it's reporting the day's market results.
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Old 10-13-2008, 10:12 PM   #27
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Oh what the hell, chances are if you invest, loose and cannot pay back your HELOC, the government will bail you out. GO FOR IT!.......NOT. Are u nuts?
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Old 10-13-2008, 10:25 PM   #28
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Everyone has their own risk tolerance. Borrowing against my house to buy stocks is far beyond mine. I would not do it.
I think it depends on more than just simply 'borrowing against the house'. That may be far too risky for most, but depending on the rest of the Net Worth picture, and the risk level of other assets, may not be so crazy.

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If you had a fully paid off home, owned free and clear, would you mortgage it in order to invest?
Very good way to look at it, IMO.

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Originally Posted by Rustic23 View Post
I was just thinking about the 'Pay off the House threads'. I wonder how many of those in the 'keep a large mortgage' and invest in stocks are feeling now. More to the point I wonder how their wives feel! Especially if there homes or under water!
Well, if they were gloating when the market was up, then yes, kick 'em when they're down - they deserve it! But, if they are looking at the long term and understand the risk, the short term is not really the issue. With your logic, no one should invest in stocks ever, because sometimes they do worse than a MM. Then how would they feel?

-ERD50
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Old 10-13-2008, 10:54 PM   #29
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Well, if they were gloating when the market was up, then yes, kick 'em when they're down - they deserve it! But, if they are looking at the long term and understand the risk, the short term is not really the issue. With your logic, no one should invest in stocks ever, because sometimes they do worse than a MM. Then how would they feel?

-ERD50
There's always the possibility that "it's different this time." If people get spooked and decide to not take out all the credit they can and actually live within their means, then there's a good possibility it will be years (like 20 of them) before we reach the same level we were at when money grew on trees.

If the fed keeps the interest rate low this will be a long recession indeed.
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Old 10-16-2008, 09:51 AM   #30
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With your logic, no one should invest in stocks ever, because sometimes they do worse than a MM. Then how would they feel?

-ERD50
No, that is not what I mean. Most people invest to secure the future. Home ownership is part of that security. When the market is going up, people look at all that 'opportunity lossed'' by having money tied up in their home. However, when the market drops 5,000 points in a week, that paid off home looks real good.

So, it's not weather you invest in stocks or not, it is what choices you have to spend your money on, and what lets you sleep at night. Each and everyone of us is different.

For me, I'm with ReWahoo. I have a small mortgage, which could be paid off by investments. It is just the right amount of risk for me to sleep.
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Old 10-16-2008, 10:28 AM   #31
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I'd say leverage the house to the hilt. Dump it all into something with some volatility and hope for the best. Worst case, the government will probably come in and bail you out and modify your mortgage terms. And there's always bankruptcy! You're young, go for it!

(this is only partially sarcasm)
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Old 10-16-2008, 11:40 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by ER_Hopeful View Post

Should I dip into my HELOC to buy?
OMG !!

It is the 1920s all over again !!


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Old 10-16-2008, 12:59 PM   #33
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Here's a good mental exercise for you. You posted this on 10-13. SPY was $101.35. Let's say you got in with $20k. SPY is currently at $89.13.

We both know you'd be in it for the long-term, but think through those numbers and assess how you'd truly feel if you (or your wife) were looking at the market right now. Depending on how the exercise strikes you, it could be an indicator that staying out is a good idea... or it could be an indicator that you're fine to go forward with a more aggressive allocation.
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Old 10-16-2008, 03:56 PM   #34
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No, that is not what I mean. Most people invest to secure the future. Home ownership is part of that security. When the market is going up, people look at all that 'opportunity lossed'' by having money tied up in their home. However, when the market drops 5,000 points in a week, that paid off home looks real good.

So, it's not weather you invest in stocks or not, it is what choices you have to spend your money on, and what lets you sleep at night. Each and everyone of us is different.

For me, I'm with ReWahoo. I have a small mortgage, which could be paid off by investments. It is just the right amount of risk for me to sleep.

It all boils down to Asset Allocation. Since the OP did not really give enough info to know how 'dipping into the HELOC' would affect his AA, or what his target AA is, we don't really have an answer. He only mentioned taking 10-10K of a HELOC towards 'some funds'. What if that HELOC is only debt? What if he already has a very conservative AA?

Someone else, also not giving enough info, could say they decided to rebalance 10% of their fixed and re-allocate it to EQ, and people would probably say that was fine. But, depending on the numbers, that may expose them to far more risk that what the OP mentioned.

As soon as someone sees 'mortgage the house to buy stocks' they go nuts. But, it depends. You have to look at the bigger picture.

-ERD50
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Old 10-16-2008, 04:19 PM   #35
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agreed
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Old 10-16-2008, 04:35 PM   #36
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I think now is a great time to begin slipping back into the market, but it is never a good time to use borrowed cash.
Find another source of cash and use these gut wrenching down days to average in. A total stock market fund would be nice for openers.
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Old 10-16-2008, 04:47 PM   #37
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Why leverage yourself? It just increases your risk.
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Old 10-16-2008, 05:03 PM   #38
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You would have some major heuvos if you did that! I would not be able to sleep at night.
House good - no house bad.......
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Old 10-17-2008, 01:59 PM   #39
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Now's the time to use the HELOC if ever there was one. I've used a little bit of the HELOC to increase our portfolio, keeping the AA in balance. I just finished putting all my spare cash into the market as of 10/10. The HELOC goes in in three steps if the market continues down from there. I still have 2 years of cash to hopefully carry us through a bottom to a point where stocks are higher than 10/10.

I did this once before, getting into the market all at once a few weeks before 9/11. It took a while, but I did end up at break-even (including interest payments) before the interest rate looked too high. So even if the market goes down more after you invest it's not that bad.

Better now than 10/17/07!

I would say what is your personal rate of return for the last five to 10 years or so and ask you to compare it to the HELOC (and to assume interest rates will go up on the HELOC), but maybe that doesn't argue in my favor. However, my personal rate of return for 2003-2007 was about 20%, and that should be somewhat like what we'll see in the future.

I'm doing this (and not paying off my mortgage) because I expect to make better than 6% return on my investments during the course of the loans. And with the market at these levels, I think it is less risky than it was in 2007.
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Old 10-17-2008, 02:06 PM   #40
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I have a HELOC account with a credit union($100k limit) which I never touched, interest rate is prime minus .25% I think(need to check, haven't looked at it for a long time). with the market as low as it's, I'm thinking tapping into this $(maybe 10K to 20K) to dca into my Target Retirement and a couple other funds.

do you think this is a sound idea? I'm already maxing out my 401k, IRA and all my monthly savings(anywhere betwn $500 to $1500) are going into the market(so need more investment $).

some quick stats:

35 yo, 2 kids, wife-SAHM, income: slightly under $100k. job seems fairly secure, but who knows.

Those who took the least risk will always be Poor.
Those who took the dump risk will always be Broke.
Those who took no risk will always Regret.
and last,
Those who took the wise risk will always be the Foundation of America.


pick your choice
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