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Should we back-up the truck today ?
Old 01-02-2013, 07:18 AM   #1
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Should we back-up the truck today ?

Good Morning,

It looks like stocks market will be up big today.

My cash allocation is too high and I have been wanting to add more stocks.

Would today be a good day to shift it all to a broad stock market fund like Vanguard TSM ?
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:37 AM   #2
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Quote:
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Good Morning,

It looks like stocks market will be up big today.

My cash allocation is too high and I have been wanting to add more stocks.

Would today be a good day to shift it all to a broad stock market fund like Vanguard TSM ?
If you buy the TSM fund, it will be obtained after the predicted "big day today" in the market. How do you feel about holding the fund afterwards??
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:46 AM   #3
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A year ago at this time, maybe. Now, I probably wouldn't. But if your allocations are out of whack then maybe DCA into stocks over the next few weeks/months. I think we are still in for some market gyrations this year as things are not all rosy in the world.
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:47 AM   #4
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That's a great point Richard, but I would use an ETF version.
I'm fairly risk averse, so I would be nervous about holding the fund.
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:49 AM   #5
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It's tempting to want to jump into the market, but I agree, we're probably still in for a bit of a roller coaster ride.

And, in my case, my retirement portfolio is sitting at an all-time high, so that's making me think maybe I should cash a little out?

But, I'm not planning on doing anything major today.
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:08 AM   #6
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I believe the best market timing strategy is to go short on everything just as W2R says "W****!" and then wait to cash in.
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:31 AM   #7
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...my retirement portfolio is sitting at an all-time high, so that's making me think maybe I should cash a little out.
Mine too, though I'm not going to cash out anything. Whatever happens today, it all reverts to mean more or less...
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Should we back-up the truck today ?
Old 01-02-2013, 08:55 AM   #8
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Should we back-up the truck today ?

My home bar says yes. Going to restock the med's later today.
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:56 AM   #9
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I've got about $50k that is eventually heading into FSTVX. I'd be okay with DCA, but there's a $10k minimum investment (though, of course, I could just go for investor shares for now, and convert when I hit $10k). However, if we really see things continually improving this year, why DCA? I guess we don't really know. I'll probably do what I always do: Look for a day where the NAV looks to be dropping fast all day. At least that'll make me feel like I did better than the folks who bought-in the day prior.
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:07 AM   #10
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Good Morning,

It looks like stocks market will be up big today.

My cash allocation is too high and I have been wanting to add more stocks.

Would today be a good day to shift it all to a broad stock market fund like Vanguard TSM ?
Nobody knows the future.

But if you were doing this based on past experience, just gather up the SP500 daily returns since 1950 and look at outcomes after a 2% one day move and a good 12 month market. Tells you the past but not the future.
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Old 01-02-2013, 11:03 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven View Post
Good Morning,

It looks like stocks market will be up big today.

My cash allocation is too high and I have been wanting to add more stocks.

Would today be a good day to shift it all to a broad stock market fund like Vanguard TSM ?
I have a little trimming due today for my annual withdrawal. So if the market keeps celebrating all day, then that will be nice.

It looks like a good day to add to bond funds. The 10-year rate has backed up to over 1.8%. That's better than the 1.6% level it was earlier last month.
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Old 01-02-2013, 11:11 AM   #12
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Instead of doing it all today, perhaps do some today and shift it in over the next 3 months... There is still the debt ceiling crisis to come, and further resolution on the "cliff" stuff, so the market will gyrate. My opinion (worth as much as any anonymous opinion on the internet ) would be to stage it in, so that you (as best as possible) even out catching the market high and low points.
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Old 01-02-2013, 11:53 AM   #13
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Quote:
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Good Morning,
It looks like stocks market will be up big today.
My cash allocation is too high and I have been wanting to add more stocks.
Would today be a good day to shift it all to a broad stock market fund like Vanguard TSM ?
Where were you last month when everyone was lining up to jump off the fiscal cliff?

I think you'll see a better price in a few more months. And a few more months after that. And sometime within the next 12-18 months you'll see a much better price than today.

I think the key to answering your questions is to figure out when you're going to rebalance your asset allocation. Then you do it based on your own numbers without having to second-guess the stock market or the economy or the price of Brazilian soybean futures...
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:14 PM   #14
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I will be blunt: No one should be buying today. One should buy when the market tanks. Sure, momentum could carry things higher today. All those folks who wanted to get their IRAs fully funded on the first day of 2013 have already submitted orders.

The stock market is about where it was on December 18th before it melted down a little bit over the ensuing 2 weeks. It is about where it was back in late September. This difference now is that taxes have gone up and budget cuts have happened. Normally, that is not a plus for the stock market.

In this case, "Buy on the rumor; Sell on the news" may apply here.

Wow, just typing this makes me want to sell some International Index fund shares which have gone up the most in the past 3 months. Of course, I could be wrong about all this.
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:20 PM   #15
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This is what we're doing.

I'm sure the Debt ceiling talks will provide down days, ripe for buying.
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:27 PM   #16
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I might sell off a bit of one of the funds in one of my rollover IRAs, as it's getting just a bit out of balance.

Also thinking about making my Roth IRA contribution today. However, that's just going to involve moving the money from an after-tax MM account to an MM account that's in the Roth, which I use to park cash for when rebalance on the peaks and valleys. So there's no rush to do that.
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Old 01-02-2013, 01:20 PM   #17
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My AA bands are just fine so ignoring the market is the plan of the day.
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Old 01-02-2013, 01:30 PM   #18
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I re-balanced today. First, for my cash reserve for 2013. Second, my percentages in US Stock and Int'l Stock were a bit higher than my target allocations, so I got them in line. The fiscal thingy bump is just an added bonus during a regular re-balancing activity.
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Old 01-02-2013, 01:44 PM   #19
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I cashed out of a couple of holdings today... accounts that were substandard in terms of service, so today gives me a good excuse to sell those holdings. It'll take a week or so to get the checks, which will be just in time for the market to start getting nervous about the debt ceiling.
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Old 01-02-2013, 02:12 PM   #20
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Time to sell, not buy.

If you need to buy, I'd wait until the debt ceiling and deficit reduction debate looks like we're going to shoot ourselves in the foot and everyone says to get out of the market because it is too risky.
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