Should we be in bonds, or something else?

[nun]

With the US 10 year Treasury rate being a good historical indicator of the next decade's bond returns and with it being 2.24% are bonds a good place for the fixed income portion of a retirement portfolio in the decumulation phase? If not what are the alternatives?

 

[yakers]

What are your alternatives?I have a stable value type fund(TSP G Fund) which holds most of my fixed income.We have some ibonds, which is sort of like cash, we have cash in the credit union and DW's IRA is in VG Wellesley fund, so VG can manage some of our bond holdings. The only clear place I can think of for folks in higher tax brackets than I is muni funds.

Good luck, nothing looks so good going forward.

 

[nun]

What are your alternatives?I have a stable value type fund(TSP G Fund) which holds most of my fixed income.We have some ibonds, which is sort of like cash, we have cash in the credit union and DW's IRA is in VG Wellesley fund, so VG can manage some of our bond holdings. The only clear place I can think of for folks in higher tax brackets than I is muni funds.

Good luck, nothing looks so good going forward.

Well the SV funds won't do any better than 10 year US treasury, Wellesley isn't the same at all. I suppose I'm fishing for some out of the box thinking that could replace bonds and provide stable income in retirement. Are SPIAs an alternative?

 

[2B]

You can buy short term annuities that work like bonds. They are "guaranteed" by your state's insurance fund. You get paid a rate slightly higher than CDs and you get your principal back at the end of the term. I don't buy these.

I use laddered CDs. They pay a higher interest rate than the equivalent US bond/note. They pay a slightly higher interest rate than Vanguard's Total Bond Fund if you buy CDs with the same average maturity (~7 years). The Total Bond Fund has a lot of US bonds in it which explains why CDs have a better interest rate.

My CD ladder has an average maturity of between 2 and 3 years. I'm starting to extend this out by buying 5 yr CDs and then 7 yr CDs probably in 2016.

 

[ripper1]

I think a lot of us were able to get in the Pen Fed 5 year CD at 3.04%.

 

[nun]

You can buy short term annuities that work like bonds. They are "guaranteed" by your state's insurance fund. You get paid a rate slightly higher than CDs and you get your principal back at the end of the term. I don't buy these.

I use laddered CDs. They pay a higher interest rate than the equivalent US bond/note. They pay a slightly higher interest rate than Vanguard's Total Bond Fund if you buy CDs with the same average maturity (~7 years). The Total Bond Fund has a lot of US bonds in it which explains why CDs have a better interest rate.

My CD ladder has an average maturity of between 2 and 3 years. I'm starting to extend this out by buying 5 yr CDs and then 7 yr CDs probably in 2016.

I like that idea, but I think lifetime SPIAs should also be considered in this low interest environment as mortality credits.....assuming you live at least an average lifespan.....get you a bit more return. They are not for everyone, but should at least be seriously considered as part of your fixed income allocation, particularly if you are single or don't mind the chance of leaving a little bit less to your heirs.

 

[jim584672]

Period certain SPIAs might be useful. Say you need to get to 70 to get SS. So I am 50 yo and would get a 20 year period certain annuity. If I die the income flow continues to the beneficiary. Also the taxable interest is a fraction of the entire payment over the life of the contract. These are like a mortgage in reverse. The current rates seem too low for this to make sense right now.

 

[pb4uski]

I like target maturity bond funds as a CD substitute. The yields are a hair better but there is some credit risk, however, I can buy them in my Vanguard IRA rather than having a number of IRA accounts with different banks. The ones I currently own mature in 2017 to 2020. I "think" interest rates may normalize by then and if they do then I'll probably just buy a conventional bond fund with the maturity proceeds and hopefully be ahead than if I just held a conventional bond fund long term.

I could have got the same effect buying brokered CDs, but decided to do these instead.

 

[Chuckanut]

I have a certain amount in an index bond fund, but most of my bonds are in PSSSST.....Wellesly. So far the management of the fund has earned my trust.

 

[audreyh1]

I have a broad range of bond funds - most of them intermediate. They are not Treasuries - they are much more broadly diversified and so usually yield quite a bit more for the same duration. I have held most of these bond funds for 15 years now and plan to for decades more. I don't feel compelled to sell them and buy something else.

I have picked up things like 3% 5-year CDs when they seemed attractive - but usually for my cash position!

My bonds are there for the diversification, and so I can sell them to buy stocks after bad market years. I don't see how you do that with an annuity.

I am a total return investor. I don't get look at the projected returns of my underlying assets or whatever dividends they may throw off any given year. When I withdraw, I sell whatever I need to at the time. Some years it's stocks, some years it's bonds, some years it's cash.

FWIW - I don't expect interest rates to "normalize" for another 10 years. Global growth is too slow, and deflationary pressures to high.

 

[nun]

Period certain SPIAs might be useful. Say you need to get to 70 to get SS. So I am 50 yo and would get a 20 year period certain annuity. If I die the income flow continues to the beneficiary. Also the taxable interest is a fraction of the entire payment over the life of the contract. These are like a mortgage in reverse. The current rates seem too low for this to make sense right now.

Mortality credits are important in a low interest rate environment. It's true that commercial life time annuities will only produce 2% returns, but they should be more in the mix as you reach ages over 75.

 

[nun]

I have a broad range of bond funds - most of them intermediate. They are not Treasuries - they are much more broadly diversified and so usually yield quite a bit more for the same duration. I have held most of these bond funds for 15 years now and plan to for decades more. I don't feel compelled to sell them and buy something else.

I have picked up things like 3% 5-year CDs when they seemed attractive - but usually for my cash position!

My bonds are there for the diversification, and so I can sell them to buy stocks after bad market years. I don't see how you do that with an annuity.

I am a total return investor. I don't get look at the projected returns of my underlying assets or whatever dividends they may throw off any given year. When I withdraw, I sell whatever I need to at the time. Some years it's stocks, some years it's bonds, some years it's cash.

FWIW - I don't expect interest rates to "normalize" for another 10 years. Global growth is too slow, and deflationary pressures to high.

My pension buy is for diversity as well. I'll still be rebalancing my remaining 75/25 AA....and reinvesting dividends and capital gains.

The numbers on SPIAs for young people are not good right now, but they get interesting as you get older.

 

[audreyh1]

My pension buy is for diversity as well. I'll still be rebalancing my remaining 75/25 AA....and reinvesting dividends and capital gains.

The numbers on SPIAs for young people are not good right now, but they get interesting as you get older.

Like how much older?

Never mind - I see you said 75 above.

Yep - I'll probably look at things again when we reach 70 (knock on wood!!!!)

 

[W2R]

With the US 10 year Treasury rate being a good historical indicator of the next decade's bond returns and with it being 2.24% are bonds a good place for the fixed income portion of a retirement portfolio in the decumulation phase? If not what are the alternatives?

I am staying with my same asset allocation as always, that I determined and wrote down when creating my financial plan. But then, I do have a little wiggle room, especially now that I have SS, and I am not trying to milk the last dollar out of my nestegg. My investing goals in retirement include maintaining a steady, moderate income along with the benefits of portfolio diversification and lower volatility that bond funds can provide. So far, so good.

My bonds are invested in the TSP "G Fund", VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Index), and VWIAX (Vanguard Wellesley). And there they will stay for the foreseeable future.

 

[Lsbcal]

Well the SV funds won't do any better than 10 year US treasury, Wellesley isn't the same at all. I suppose I'm fishing for some out of the box thinking that could replace bonds and provide stable income in retirement. Are SPIAs an alternative?

In a thread awhile back, I outlined a bond strategy that backtests quite well for the rising rate environments in the past decades. Right now it says to stick with intermediate bonds. See this link: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/a-long-term-strategy-for-bonds-74873.html

One should be wary of basing a fixed income multi-year strategy on just the current rates.

 

[Mulligan]

In a thread awhile back, I outlined a bond strategy that backtests quite well for the rising rate environments in the past decades. Right now it says to stick with intermediate bonds. See this link: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/a-long-term-strategy-for-bonds-74873.html

One should be wary of basing a fixed income multi-year strategy on just the current rates.

I certainly don't disagree with your thoughts, Lsb. I have no use or probably need for bonds, but I did want to invest for yield. This led me to preferred stocks and while researching I thought these will just get crushed when rates rise. But I back checked the ones I have bought (utility preferred investment grade variety) and was surprised at the relative lack of volatility in price. One issue I have that was issued with a 6.625% coupon at $25 par in the 1990s.
In 2004 the 10 year was 4.15% and 20 year was 5.21% (no 30 yr issues) and it was sitting right around par. Now today both the 10 and 30 are in the 2's, and it sits just a dollar above par still yielding about 6.4%. You never know, so I just take my chances and buy more if opportunity presents itself.
Everything has its risks and drawbacks I know.


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[audreyh1]

In a thread awhile back, I outlined a bond strategy that backtests quite well for the rising rate environments in the past decades. Right now it says to stick with intermediate bonds. See this link: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/a-long-term-strategy-for-bonds-74873.html

One should be wary of basing a fixed income multi-year strategy on just the current rates.

That was a really interesting presentation you made. I'm curious how it plays out for you over the next few years, so I hope you keep updating that thread.

 

[Lsbcal]

That was a really interesting presentation you made. I'm curious how it plays out for you over the next few years, so I hope you keep updating that thread.

I'll try to updated it. it will take 5 to 10 years to get a real idea of whether it's working.