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06-18-2008, 05:49 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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signs of seeing bottom?
been a rough three years. south florida housing market pretty much crashed with our hurricanes of 2005. the last one, wilma, knocked lights out to more than 3 million households for a couple of weeks and when they came back on the housing market was pretty much gone like it snuck away in the dark.
all the news since then has been pretty bad. needless to say, having two houses here, i've been scouring the news for any sign of bottom. only lately has there been, um, speculation. it's all i got to flaunt so i'm going with it. there's been a trickle over the last few weeks. talk of florida being first to crash & that it crashed so hard that it should maybe be first to recover, that tempered with the idea that we can't recover until the rest of the country does because they buy our houses. and now, of course, if only banks had money to loan.
anyway, hoping i'm not looking at just a false bottom. and certainly the condo market will likely continue to hurt. yup, a rough three years. i guess only time will tell.
it looks like you're near bottom in florida when....
when new york city finally loses ground:
Signs-of-Softness-Appear-in-Manhattan-Real-Estate: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance
Quote:
Signs of cracks in Manhattan's property market could mean the rest of the country is on the road to recovery, since New York tends to feel the effects of a slowing economy later than the nation does.
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when cramer stops screaming:
Cramer: Florida's Good News - TheStreet.com
Quote:
...Florida could signal a turn in the rest of the country...It is a good sign that things are getting better in one of the worst parts of the economy.
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when vultures come to the rescue:
Real estate firm eyes $1B investment in Florida - 06/17/2008 - MiamiHerald.com
Quote:
Strategic Real Estate Advisors, the asset manager that invested in London's Heron Tower development, plans to raise $1 billion to buy luxury homes in Florida that were repossessed by banks....''We're in no rush,'' Rolin said. He estimated that average prices of luxury homes are about $500 a square foot, down from a peak of more than $1,000 for some developments, and will fall further...The fund sees an annual internal rate of return of more than 20 percent.
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ok, so, maybe i don't have enough money to qualify for their projected 20% annual gains. but hey, they're getting ready to invest a billion bucks. their economists must be seeing something. could it be bottom?
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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06-18-2008, 05:52 PM
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#2
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
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DW, realtor, had her best quarter in 3 years.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.
As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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06-18-2008, 06:00 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Cooksburg,PA
Posts: 1,873
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Quote:
I hope it is a bottom for your sake. 10 million baby boomers have to live somewhere warm. I was visiting this winter. Florida is a beautiful state.
My avitar is a pic from Florida
Free to canoe
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06-18-2008, 06:13 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,502
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At some point a geographical arbitrage becomes very attractive. I just don't see many places further from Boston that that I want to live, and the places I would like to live that are near Boston, I can't afford without feeling like I'm constantly under the gun. I did that for 12 years in two houses, and those 12 years felt plenty long at times because any negative stuff at work would get amplified by the fact that I had a mortgage to pay.
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06-18-2008, 06:34 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Free To Canoe
I hope it is a bottom for your sake. 10 million baby boomers have to live somewhere warm. I was visiting this winter. Florida is a beautiful state.
My avitar is a pic from Florida
Free to canoe
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You should visit Florida during the summer. The weather is hot and humid, which makes going to the beaches a joy.
We enjoyed our visit to Orlando last summer. The theme parks, beaches, restaurants were great.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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06-18-2008, 06:41 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
DW, realtor, had her best quarter in 3 years.
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good news doc. she must not be selling in lee county.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Free To Canoe
I hope it is a bottom for your sake. 10 million baby boomers have to live somewhere warm. I was visiting this winter. Florida is a beautiful state.
My avitar is a pic from Florida
Free to canoe
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you got that right. not many other places where can you go mountain biking with alligators. don't know where your pic is but reminds me of loxahatchee river. if you haven't been, check out next time here. easy access from state park in jupiter. i canoe there about once a year. also i hear the peace river is really nice but haven't been yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BunsGettingFirm
I just don't see many places further from Boston that that I want to live, and the places I would like to live that are near Boston, I can't afford without feeling like I'm constantly under the gun.
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come on down. bring your friends. i happen to know of two very affordable properties for you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
You should visit Florida during the summer. The weather is hot and humid, which makes going to the beaches a joy.
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how are those minneapolis beaches for winter swims?
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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06-18-2008, 08:26 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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lazy, it may interest you to know that UCLA put out a study suggesting that CA real estate will bottom in late 2008. Given the similarity in the CA and FL markets, that may suggest that FL is bottoming, too. Up here in the inverse tax haven (come here if you want to be taxed to death) prices haven't fallen more than 10% or so unless you were at the top end of your immediate neighborhood.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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06-19-2008, 12:20 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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thanx brewer, that does interest me. will try to find the study. what a strange trip it has been. i had no idea i could lose so much so fast. going forward i am going to be the most conservative, most diversified guy on the planet. god, i hope that doesn't mean i have to start sleeping with chicks.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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06-19-2008, 01:17 AM
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#9
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gone traveling
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,864
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Is AZ Real Estate finally turning the corner?
According to data published by the AZ Republic:
Homes in my ZIP code jumped 17.7% in 2007...
They break it down further, by mail carrier route #
which showed my neighborhood at 36.2% in 2007
+93.3% in the past five years.
A new subdivision next to mine had people camping out for a week waiting for the opportunity to buy new homes in May.
I know it's just a glimmer, but... it's a start.
Now, the big question is... how and when do I cash out?
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06-19-2008, 06:21 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
god, i hope that doesn't mean i have to start sleeping with chicks.
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Well, maybe just really convincing-looking trannies would do...
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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06-19-2008, 07:12 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Well, maybe just really convincing-looking trannies would do...
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I'll opt for the chicks.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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06-19-2008, 07:14 AM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,603
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Spoke to a realtor yesterday says the inner city is approaching 2001 prices. Which is bringing back investors (they can make $$ monthly!). But foreclosures are still showing year over year increases. Soooo we wait.
PS Still can't make $$ renting in the suburbs (and I am all done in the inner city). Sooo we wait.
__________________
FIRE'd since 2005
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06-19-2008, 02:55 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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trannies? how ungay is that! we gays go for men. i think the trannies must be for the heteros.
tryan, to where do you refer please? you might want to hold on to that inner city property. abc reports that suburbanites will be dumping their suv's soon and moving there.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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06-19-2008, 06:58 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
trannies? how ungay is that! we gays go for men. i think the trannies must be for the heteros.
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Your choice. There are lots of actual eligible women instead, assuming you are that bent on blending in.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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06-20-2008, 08:01 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
lazy, it may interest you to know that UCLA put out a study suggesting that CA real estate will bottom in late 2008.
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These things tend to be self-fulfilling prophecies. People who are financially ready to buy are likely to wait until they think the time has come when the bottom has hit.
So in reality, these projections of "more pain to come" have no choice but to come true in many cases in that it influences behavior that naturally results in their predictions coming true.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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06-20-2008, 08:31 AM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
These things tend to be self-fulfilling prophecies. People who are financially ready to buy are likely to wait until they think the time has come when the bottom has hit.
So in reality, these projections of "more pain to come" have no choice but to come true in many cases in that it influences behavior that naturally results in their predictions coming true.
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Also, people who want to sell are likely to wait until they think they can get a reasonable price for their houses. After selling, they become those ready to buy that you mentioned, swelling the numbers of buyers who are financially ready to buy.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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06-20-2008, 11:01 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
lazy, it may interest you to know that UCLA put out a study suggesting that CA real estate will bottom in late 2008. Given the similarity in the CA and FL markets, that may suggest that FL is bottoming, too. Up here in the inverse tax haven (come here if you want to be taxed to death) prices haven't fallen more than 10% or so unless you were at the top end of your immediate neighborhood.
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what's the ratio of the median house price to median income these days in CA? is it still 10 to 1?
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06-20-2008, 11:05 AM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
what's the ratio of the median house price to median income these days in CA? is it still 10 to 1?
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I suspect it depends on where you look. San Fran is probably in space still. Excremento has probably crashed down to where it belongs.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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06-20-2008, 12:26 PM
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#19
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Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 11,447
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Prices in Sarasota & Bradenton are so low . It is hard to believe they can go any lower . The bargains are beginning to tempt me .
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06-20-2008, 01:57 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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We managed to unload a modest 3BR townhouse in Richmond for $423k. We are nearing the market top and only one sold for more ($426k) but it had been recently remodeled and ours was nice but circa 20 years ago. MIL RIP...
Recently listings up by 31% YOY and sales down by 38% for May. Prices still hanging on.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
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