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signs of seeing bottom?
Old 06-18-2008, 06:49 PM   #1
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signs of seeing bottom?

been a rough three years. south florida housing market pretty much crashed with our hurricanes of 2005. the last one, wilma, knocked lights out to more than 3 million households for a couple of weeks and when they came back on the housing market was pretty much gone like it snuck away in the dark.

all the news since then has been pretty bad. needless to say, having two houses here, i've been scouring the news for any sign of bottom. only lately has there been, um, speculation. it's all i got to flaunt so i'm going with it. there's been a trickle over the last few weeks. talk of florida being first to crash & that it crashed so hard that it should maybe be first to recover, that tempered with the idea that we can't recover until the rest of the country does because they buy our houses. and now, of course, if only banks had money to loan.

anyway, hoping i'm not looking at just a false bottom. and certainly the condo market will likely continue to hurt. yup, a rough three years. i guess only time will tell.

it looks like you're near bottom in florida when....

when new york city finally loses ground:

Signs-of-Softness-Appear-in-Manhattan-Real-Estate: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance

Quote:
Signs of cracks in Manhattan's property market could mean the rest of the country is on the road to recovery, since New York tends to feel the effects of a slowing economy later than the nation does.
when cramer stops screaming:

Cramer: Florida's Good News - TheStreet.com

Quote:
...Florida could signal a turn in the rest of the country...It is a good sign that things are getting better in one of the worst parts of the economy.
when vultures come to the rescue:

Real estate firm eyes $1B investment in Florida - 06/17/2008 - MiamiHerald.com

Quote:
Strategic Real Estate Advisors, the asset manager that invested in London's Heron Tower development, plans to raise $1 billion to buy luxury homes in Florida that were repossessed by banks....''We're in no rush,'' Rolin said. He estimated that average prices of luxury homes are about $500 a square foot, down from a peak of more than $1,000 for some developments, and will fall further...The fund sees an annual internal rate of return of more than 20 percent.
ok, so, maybe i don't have enough money to qualify for their projected 20% annual gains. but hey, they're getting ready to invest a billion bucks. their economists must be seeing something. could it be bottom?
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Old 06-18-2008, 06:52 PM   #2
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DW, realtor, had her best quarter in 3 years.
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Old 06-18-2008, 07:00 PM   #3
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Quote:
could it be bottom?
I hope it is a bottom for your sake. 10 million baby boomers have to live somewhere warm. I was visiting this winter. Florida is a beautiful state.
My avitar is a pic from Florida

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Old 06-18-2008, 07:13 PM   #4
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At some point a geographical arbitrage becomes very attractive. I just don't see many places further from Boston that that I want to live, and the places I would like to live that are near Boston, I can't afford without feeling like I'm constantly under the gun. I did that for 12 years in two houses, and those 12 years felt plenty long at times because any negative stuff at work would get amplified by the fact that I had a mortgage to pay.
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Old 06-18-2008, 07:34 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Free To Canoe View Post
I hope it is a bottom for your sake. 10 million baby boomers have to live somewhere warm. I was visiting this winter. Florida is a beautiful state.
My avitar is a pic from Florida

Free to canoe
You should visit Florida during the summer. The weather is hot and humid, which makes going to the beaches a joy.

We enjoyed our visit to Orlando last summer. The theme parks, beaches, restaurants were great.
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Old 06-18-2008, 07:41 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
DW, realtor, had her best quarter in 3 years.
good news doc. she must not be selling in lee county.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Free To Canoe View Post
I hope it is a bottom for your sake. 10 million baby boomers have to live somewhere warm. I was visiting this winter. Florida is a beautiful state.
My avitar is a pic from Florida

Free to canoe

you got that right. not many other places where can you go mountain biking with alligators. don't know where your pic is but reminds me of loxahatchee river. if you haven't been, check out next time here. easy access from state park in jupiter. i canoe there about once a year. also i hear the peace river is really nice but haven't been yet.

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I just don't see many places further from Boston that that I want to live, and the places I would like to live that are near Boston, I can't afford without feeling like I'm constantly under the gun.
come on down. bring your friends. i happen to know of two very affordable properties for you.

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You should visit Florida during the summer. The weather is hot and humid, which makes going to the beaches a joy.
how are those minneapolis beaches for winter swims?
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Old 06-18-2008, 09:26 PM   #7
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lazy, it may interest you to know that UCLA put out a study suggesting that CA real estate will bottom in late 2008. Given the similarity in the CA and FL markets, that may suggest that FL is bottoming, too. Up here in the inverse tax haven (come here if you want to be taxed to death) prices haven't fallen more than 10% or so unless you were at the top end of your immediate neighborhood.
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Old 06-19-2008, 01:20 AM   #8
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thanx brewer, that does interest me. will try to find the study. what a strange trip it has been. i had no idea i could lose so much so fast. going forward i am going to be the most conservative, most diversified guy on the planet. god, i hope that doesn't mean i have to start sleeping with chicks.
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Old 06-19-2008, 02:17 AM   #9
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Is AZ Real Estate finally turning the corner?

According to data published by the AZ Republic:

Homes in my ZIP code jumped 17.7% in 2007...
They break it down further, by mail carrier route #
which showed my neighborhood at 36.2% in 2007

+93.3% in the past five years.

A new subdivision next to mine had people camping out for a week waiting for the opportunity to buy new homes in May.

I know it's just a glimmer, but... it's a start.

Now, the big question is... how and when do I cash out?
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Old 06-19-2008, 07:21 AM   #10
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god, i hope that doesn't mean i have to start sleeping with chicks.
Well, maybe just really convincing-looking trannies would do...
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Old 06-19-2008, 08:12 AM   #11
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Well, maybe just really convincing-looking trannies would do...
I'll opt for the chicks.
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Old 06-19-2008, 08:14 AM   #12
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Spoke to a realtor yesterday says the inner city is approaching 2001 prices. Which is bringing back investors (they can make $$ monthly!). But foreclosures are still showing year over year increases. Soooo we wait.

PS Still can't make $$ renting in the suburbs (and I am all done in the inner city). Sooo we wait.
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Old 06-19-2008, 03:55 PM   #13
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trannies? how ungay is that! we gays go for men. i think the trannies must be for the heteros.

tryan, to where do you refer please? you might want to hold on to that inner city property. abc reports that suburbanites will be dumping their suv's soon and moving there.
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Old 06-19-2008, 07:58 PM   #14
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trannies? how ungay is that! we gays go for men. i think the trannies must be for the heteros.
Your choice. There are lots of actual eligible women instead, assuming you are that bent on blending in.
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Old 06-20-2008, 09:01 AM   #15
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lazy, it may interest you to know that UCLA put out a study suggesting that CA real estate will bottom in late 2008.
These things tend to be self-fulfilling prophecies. People who are financially ready to buy are likely to wait until they think the time has come when the bottom has hit.

So in reality, these projections of "more pain to come" have no choice but to come true in many cases in that it influences behavior that naturally results in their predictions coming true.
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Old 06-20-2008, 09:31 AM   #16
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These things tend to be self-fulfilling prophecies. People who are financially ready to buy are likely to wait until they think the time has come when the bottom has hit.

So in reality, these projections of "more pain to come" have no choice but to come true in many cases in that it influences behavior that naturally results in their predictions coming true.
Also, people who want to sell are likely to wait until they think they can get a reasonable price for their houses. After selling, they become those ready to buy that you mentioned, swelling the numbers of buyers who are financially ready to buy.
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Old 06-20-2008, 12:01 PM   #17
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lazy, it may interest you to know that UCLA put out a study suggesting that CA real estate will bottom in late 2008. Given the similarity in the CA and FL markets, that may suggest that FL is bottoming, too. Up here in the inverse tax haven (come here if you want to be taxed to death) prices haven't fallen more than 10% or so unless you were at the top end of your immediate neighborhood.
what's the ratio of the median house price to median income these days in CA? is it still 10 to 1?
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Old 06-20-2008, 12:05 PM   #18
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what's the ratio of the median house price to median income these days in CA? is it still 10 to 1?
I suspect it depends on where you look. San Fran is probably in space still. Excremento has probably crashed down to where it belongs.
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Old 06-20-2008, 01:26 PM   #19
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Prices in Sarasota & Bradenton are so low . It is hard to believe they can go any lower . The bargains are beginning to tempt me .
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Old 06-20-2008, 02:57 PM   #20
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We managed to unload a modest 3BR townhouse in Richmond for $423k. We are nearing the market top and only one sold for more ($426k) but it had been recently remodeled and ours was nice but circa 20 years ago. MIL RIP...

Recently listings up by 31% YOY and sales down by 38% for May. Prices still hanging on.
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