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So tear some holes in this. Since the market is falling pretty hard and the outcome "could be dire", what about this very simple timing system for today's environment?
Pick a number...I'll choose Dow 11,500.
Since it is fairly easy to get all in or all out of the markets today (or maybe just fully hedged with the 2x inverse funds if the commisions are too high with individual stocks); why not just go completely long if the DOW is above 11,500 and get completely out if it is below 11,500?
With this plan it is impossible to miss a bull market and impossible to experience financial ruin. If the market drops more one could also adjust the number from 11,500 to 11,000 or less.
The downside is small whipsaw losses through "the picked number" which could add up if it happens a lot but even that is better than financial ruin. (This is similar to the trading moving averages I realize)
Ok, let me have it......
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