Sizing the Housing Bubble

[JPatrick]

Been gone awhile, so this may have been previously posted, but it seemed a bit telling.

[ShokWaveRider]

Realtors I have spoken to here in NW Florida "say" they are advising their clients not to sell if they do not have to because it only contributes to falling prices. I saw an add this weekend that proudly stated "Reduced AGAIN!". Even if this is the case if I were a realor I would simply adjust the price and not say anything.

I think an even bigger problem is property taxes. 1.7% of $500,000 is $708 per month just before you start! I think this is a big problem also, maybe not as much as as rising interest rates. Home taxes are going up not down, so that will only get worse. Seeing as a home that cost $250k ish here rents for between $750 and $1000 per month. What will happen there?

SWR

[audreyh1]

Wow! Atlanta looks in trouble!

Audrey

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider Realtors I have spoken to here in NW Florida "say" they are advising their clients not to sell if they do not have to because it only contributes to falling prices. I saw an add this weekend that proudly stated "Reduced AGAIN!". Even if this is the case if I were a realor I would simply adjust the price and not say anything. I think an even bigger problem is property taxes. 1.7% of $500,000 is $708 per month just before you start! I think this is a big problem also, maybe not as much as as rising interest rates.* Home taxes are going up not down, so that will only get worse. Seeing as a home that cost $250k ish here rents for between $750 and $1000 per month. What will happen there? SWR

And then uyou start tossing in homeowners' insurance bills that are rising as much as 100+% with no relief in sight...

[ShokWaveRider]

Good point! I forgot about insurance. Insurance here is all but impossible to get if you are 3 miles or under from the Ocean and only a few companies are writing it. Basic insurance for a $250k home over 3 miles is $2k or more. I know this because I did some research last week with the AAA for renters insurance and alked about homeowners at the same time.

SWR

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex for single family homes only - roughly 33% have zero mortgage. See page 26 of 368 from linked report. http://www.huduser.org/datasets/rfs/censr-27.pdf

I'd like to see that broken out by age group. I'd bet that theres a high correlation between age and payoff. Perhaps 33% of the population is in their 50's or older and have worked off the mortgage in preparation for retirement. I dont think you'd find that the 33% spreads evenly (or even close to evenly) across age groups.

[Alex]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny I'd like to see that broken out by age group. I'd bet that theres a high correlation between age and payoff. Perhaps 33% of the population is in their 50's or older and have worked off the mortgage in preparation for retirement. I dont think you'd find that the 33% spreads evenly (or even close to evenly) across age groups.

Actually I gave an age breakdown on an earlier post -of course, you are free to read the report - its 300+ pages. Have fun -and don't forget to bring a drool cup

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Ah yes, I see that now.

However, I may have to read the report. I'm *extremely* doubtful of the claim that 1 in 5 homeowners under 34 have no mortgage.

Were they counting people who still lived with mom and dad? Hmmm...

[Alex]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny Ah yes, I see that now. However, I may have to read the report. I'm *extremely* doubtful of the claim that 1 in 5 homeowners under 34 have no mortgage. Were they counting people who still lived with mom and dad? Hmmm...

I personally know several 30 year olds that own their homes outright - normal folks too - no million dollar salaries and no inheritance. You seem to forget that California is not the center of the universe. Nice homes still cost 50-80K in Omaha and many many other places throughout the US

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Anecdotal evidence is fine...i'll have to read the report before commenting further as I dont know who was doing the report, who paid for it, or why they wanted to produce it.

[laurence]

My thirty year old friends in Deleware are 10% into a 30 year fixed for a home they bought for 140k. They have no plans to pay off early. Sure homes are cheaper, but pay is lower, too. My question is not the ability of people to pay off homes, I'm just suprised that there are that many people who want to. "I have better uses for my money" "I need the tax deduction" etc. is all I hear from people who still have a mortgage. There isn't a "will" to do it in my circle.

[HFWR]

http://factfinder.census.gov/jsp/saf...sing_financial

Quote:

Of the single family owner-occupied homes in the United States, about 70 percent were mortgaged and 30 percent were not.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Couple of things I noted right off the bat.

Sample size of 69,000 people US wide. Fifty pages of 'sampling error' analysis that nobody except the guy who wrote it has ever read, but 69k people is a pathetically small sample group. Only about half of the subjects were interviewed. One half of me says thats not enough. The other half is slightly annoyed that my tax dollars were spent interviewing 40k people about their mortgages...

You can check off "no mortgage" and be done with the survey, or say "yes, mortgage" and have to answer 28 questions, all with subsections and options. Most of which you're going to have to dig your mortgage paperwork out to answer. What do you think happened with that...?

[ShokWaveRider]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex I personally know several 30 year olds that own their homes outright - normal folks too - no million dollar salaries and no inheritance. You seem to forget that California is not the center of the universe. Nice homes still cost 50-80K in Omaha and many many other places throughout the US

But, you do have to admit California's weather is FAR better than Omaha's! But there again, it is good enough for Warren Buffet, althogh he can afford to purchase the sun and erase the clouds and rain and cold.

SWR

[Alex]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laurence My thirty year old friends in Deleware are 10% into a 30 year fixed for a home they bought for 140k. They have no plans to pay off early. Sure homes are cheaper, but pay is lower, too. My question is not the ability of people to pay off homes, I'm just suprised that there are that many people who want to. "I have better uses for my money" "I need the tax deduction" etc. is all I hear from people who still have a mortgage. There isn't a "will" to do it in my circle.

I personally, would never pay off my mortage while earning an employee income. Once I retire, I would consider it.

[Alex]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny Couple of things I noted right off the bat. Sample size of 69,000 people US wide. Fifty pages of 'sampling error' analysis that nobody except the guy who wrote it has ever read, but 69k people is a pathetically small sample group. Only about half of the subjects were interviewed. One half of me says thats not enough. The other half is slightly annoyed that my tax dollars were spent interviewing 40k people about their mortgages... You can check off "no mortgage" and be done with the survey, or say "yes, mortgage" and have to answer 28 questions, all with subsections and options. Most of which you're going to have to dig your mortgage paperwork out to answer. What do you think happened with that...?

CFB, most people will gladly answer questions candidly if they are assured anonymity. Of course there are always a few liars and lazy asses - that's why they have a 'sampling error' built in to the numbers. Moreover, the data is in line with other studies and estimates. I'd say the study is accurate enough for the purposes of our discussion.

[Alex]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider But, you do have to admit California's weather is FAR better than Omaha's! But there again, it is good enough for Warren Buffet, althogh he can afford to purchase the sun and erase the clouds and rain and cold. SWR

Of course it is, but if you are a retiree you can live in Omaha for part of the year and travel when it it too hot or cold. PS - Buffet lives in Lincoln....

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex CFB, most people will gladly answer questions candidly if they are assured anonymity.

I think that life is too short to be wasted answering surveys for free. *I regularly throw away the mailed ones and ignore the dozens of e-mail offers that I get every day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Of course there are always a few liars and lazy asses - that's why they have a 'sampling error' built in to the numbers. *Moreover, the data is in line with other studies and estimates. * I'd say the study is accurate enough for the purposes of our discussion. *

It doesn't matter what either of us say, what matters is credible data that doesn't rely on self-reporting. *Remember how seven million children disappeared the night before the IRS required all dependents to have a tax ID number?

I think you overestimate the motivation of the average unpaid survey respondent. *If home ownership was a question answered on a tax form or a U.S. census then I'd treat it with about as much credibility as I believe Labor's employment surveys or the CPI data-- somewhat accurate in the aggregate, difficult to apply to the individual.

Rather than survey data, perhaps we could look at the numbers of homes owned by individuals vs the number of home mortgages. *

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex PS - Buffet lives in Lincoln....

"The Oracle of Lincoln"... "The Lender of Lincoln"... "The Lloyd's of Lincoln"... nope, just doesn't cut it.

[Alex]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords I think that life is too short to be wasted answering surveys for free. I regularly throw away the mailed ones and ignore the dozens of e-mail offers that I get every day. It doesn't matter what either of us say, what matters is credible data that doesn't rely on self-reporting. Remember how seven million children disappeared the night before the IRS required all dependents to have a tax ID number? I think you overestimate the motivation of the average unpaid survey respondent. If home ownership was a question answered on a tax form or a U.S. census then I'd treat it with about as much credibility as I believe Labor's employment surveys or the CPI data-- somewhat accurate in the aggregate, difficult to apply to the individual. Rather than survey data, perhaps we could look at the numbers of homes owned by individuals vs the number of home mortgages. "The Oracle of Lincoln"... "The Lender of Lincoln"... "The Lloyd's of Lincoln"... nope, just doesn't cut it.

So, are suggesting that this and all other government studies are essentially steaming piles of BS??

[MonarchDon]

Laurence, I would like to get your take on this article by Suze Orman* http://biz.yahoo.com/pfg/e01tax/art021.html
I was raised by old school parents, my dad always said "you'll never be wealthy until you stop paying intrest and start collecting intrest". I paid off my 4.875% mortgage because he beat this into my head. I don't even try to talk to my friends any more about paying off their mortgages early because like you said all I hear is "I need the tax writeoff" and "I can get more by investing my money"* *I was 42 when I had my mortgage burning party and my friends were asking me "What are we celebrating ?, can I get another beer"* *

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laurence My thirty year old friends in Deleware are 10% into a 30 year fixed for a home they bought for 140k.* They have no plans to pay off early. Sure homes are cheaper, but pay is lower, too.* My question is not the ability of people to pay off homes, I'm just suprised that there are that many people who want to.* "I have better uses for my money" "I need the tax deduction" etc. is all I hear from people who still have a mortgage.* There isn't a "will" to do it in my circle.