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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 04:04 PM   #221
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by Nords
I think that life is too short to be wasted answering surveys for free. I regularly throw away the mailed ones and ignore the dozens of e-mail offers that I get every day.
yet you still spend lots and lots of time revealing all sorts of personal data on this forum......are you being compensated? or do you do it for other reasons? I'd guess that you get something else out of it. As do the people that participate in polls and surveys.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 04:07 PM   #222
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by MonarchDon
Laurence, I would like to get your take on this article by Suze Orman* http://biz.yahoo.com/pfg/e01tax/art021.html
I was raised by old school parents, my dad always said "you'll never be wealthy until you stop paying intrest and start collecting intrest". I paid off my 4.875% mortgage because he beat this into my head. I don't even try to talk to my friends any more about paying off their mortgages early because like you said all I hear is "I need the tax writeoff" and "I can get more by investing my money"* *I was 42 when I had my mortgage burning party and my friends were asking me "What are we celebrating ?, can I get another beer"* *
Well, I ain't Laurence, but I will still comment. *I'm sitting on a 4.99% 15 year mortgage at age 32 with 12 years left to go. *I am of two minds on the note. *On one hand, I kind of wish I had opted for a 30 year fixed simply because having to service the debt has, at times, forced me to be more conservative with my career (as the breadwinner) and has cost me some investment opportunities. *OTOH, I didn't want to pay up the ~.5% extra interest a 30 would have cost me. *Its probably a wash, long term.

The real problem are the people my age who are either seriel cash out refinancers, or those who move every few years and piss away the equity they have buit up on consumer crap and transaction expenses.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 04:17 PM   #223
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Rather than survey data, perhaps we could look at the numbers of homes owned by individuals vs the number of home mortgages.
Ok - do you have that data? I would not be surprised if it was pretty close to (within the margin of error) the Census data.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 04:22 PM   #224
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Of course it is, but if you are a retiree you can live in Omaha for part of the year and travel when it it too hot or cold. PS - Buffet lives in Lincoln....
Your Right, Lincoln, but I was close. Right State, I was generalizing.

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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 04:38 PM   #225
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by MonarchDon
Laurence, I would like to get your take on this article by Suze Orman* http://biz.yahoo.com/pfg/e01tax/art021.html
I was raised by old school parents, my dad always said "you'll never be wealthy until you stop paying intrest and start collecting intrest". I paid off my 4.875% mortgage because he beat this into my head. I don't even try to talk to my friends any more about paying off their mortgages early because like you said all I hear is "I need the tax writeoff" and "I can get more by investing my money"* *I was 42 when I had my mortgage burning party and my friends were asking me "What are we celebrating ?, can I get another beer"* *
Here on this board we tend to get into arguments over differences in method that may equal a 5% difference in wealth, one way or the other. *Meanwhile the mundanes (great unwashed? *Mouth-breathers?) that make up the majority of the populace make everyone here look like master gurus of finance. *Like Brewer, I opted for a shorter term loan (20 years @ 5.125%, couldn't quite do the 15) and I'm not making additional payments on it. At that low of a rate, I don't see a point (my MM makes as much %). *I like the idea of a paid off mortgage in ER to lower my vulnerability to portfolio volatility, I felt this path was a good compromise of taking advantage of that and the nearly free money that low interests rates give you. *I think your Dad's advice falls into the same category I put my Grandpa's advice, " No one went broke taking a profit" to explain why he sold his individual stocks once they reached his target price, no matter how "exciting" or fashionable the stock was at the time - good advice.

You, Brewer and I may be FIRE 6-18 months apart due to our different paths, but our plans all seem sound.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 06:01 PM   #226
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
69k people is a pathetically small sample group.*
I would naively think that 69k is an exceptionally large sample group. The statistical error should be negligible. Systematic errors should completely dominate, for reasons such as the example you gave.

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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 08:56 PM   #227
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by Alex

CFB, most people will gladly answer questions candidly if they are assured anonymity.


Thats when they lie the most.

Because theres no accountability, they'll tell you what they want to be/have/think/drive/own/etc.

Not what they are.

Heck, I ran a series of polls here that I said were quite serious and I hoped for fine anonymous, accurate answers. By my analysis, roughly half to two thirds of the answers were goofing off or not factually accurate.

But someone mailing you a government survey is going to make you want to give the right answers?

And yes, most government studies are BS.

They start with a bias and a conclusion and conclude with the data to support it.

But if you like the data and if it supports something you feel strongly about, you should consider it gospel.

I sure as hell wont change your mind!
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 09:26 PM   #228
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny


And yes, most government studies are BS.

You have a study to support this?
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 09:36 PM   #229
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Do you have someone that wants to fund that study?
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 09:47 PM   #230
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny


Thats when they lie the most. Because theres no accountability, they'll tell you what they want to be/have/think/drive/own/etc.

Not what they are

Spoken from your own experience on this forum, no doubt. :P I now know at least one person that's full of BS on this forum.

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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 10:14 PM   #231
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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I now know at least one person that's full of BS on this forum.*
CFB eats Bachelors of Science now? Sheesh, and I thought that infanticide was bad
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-24-2006, 11:40 PM   #232
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

with new residential construction down in june 2006 anywhere from just under 10% to just over 40% in the surrounding counties here in south florida (miami, past west palm beach to port st. lucie), broward county (fort lauderdale et al) is up almost 30% from june 2005, all of that in apartments (single family housing construction is down here too--very few large tracts left).
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 01:00 AM   #233
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by Alex
Spoken from your own experience on this forum, no doubt. :P I now know at least one person that's full of BS on this forum.
Hairball.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 07:34 AM   #234
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
with new residential construction down in june 2006 anywhere from just under 10% to just over 40% in the surrounding counties here in south florida (miami, past west palm beach to port st. lucie), broward county (fort lauderdale et al) is up almost 30% from june 2005, all of that in apartments (single family housing construction is down here too--very few large tracts left).
That contradicts a little of what I heard from a friend in the Fort, that has had her home on the market for 9 months and can't sell it. It does not seem to be over priced at all and is in a nice area. She has to move and will most likely end up taking a loss or breaking even over what she paid 2 years ago in order to sell it.

So you see depending on who you talk to the answers to the housing situation are different.

SWR
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 08:02 AM   #235
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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That contradicts a little of what I heard from a friend in the Fort, that has had her home on the market for 9 months and can't sell it. It does not seem to be over priced at all and is in a nice area. She has to move and will most likely end up taking a loss or breaking even over what she paid 2 years ago in order to sell it.

So you see depending on who you talk to the answers to the housing situation are different.

SWR
rest assured the stats i listed above are pretty darned accurate. i'm not suggesting we are in great shape here as the positive ft laud number surprised even me. perhaps my story does not quite contradict your friend's, as these numbers were for construction of new units, not sales of existing ones. sales are indeed likely down. certainly most developers & real estate companies are laying off employees. but many projects are still pushing foward. stats on june sales for existing housing should be issued today.

the longest i've seen anything linger on the market in my area so far has been about 6 or 7 months. just took a walk last night, one cutie i really like just sold, been for sale since jan/feb this year. i'll check county records in a few weeks when new price is posted.

i checked on another one that sold recently. it is a 2/2, 1200 sf, fronting one of our busiest 2-lane roads and one lot away from a 4-lane main drag. overlooking it's backyard is a 5-story rental apartment building. the house was built in the 1950s. it does look from the outside that someone did a fair job renovating it. sale price $399k. i wouldn't give ya $250k for it, not even with the new paint.

i'll post local june existing sales info here when the papers publish them.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 08:59 AM   #236
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Lazyg4n:

Here in St Augustine, prices seem stable now, but there are a lot of reduced signs. People are not really selling the homes though, I see the same ones evey month in the mags and in the paper. (Taxes ~ $16 per 1k)

JAX seems to be having a lot of forclosures, 7th highest in the country I think. There are lots of homes in nice areas for around $250k - $350k (Taxes ~ $18 per 1k)

Palm Coast is terrible, Reduced signs everywhere. For a community of 65k people there are 2500 - 3500 properties for sale on any given day. Rentals for a $250k - $300k home hover around $900 per month. (Taxes ~ $17 per 1k)

St. Augustine and Palm coas have the better climate than JAX. The rain and storms are a lot less. At least this and last year.

Those are the only 3 communities I really watch.

SWR
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 10:12 AM   #237
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

On the west side of the state, it seems that accurately priced houses sell without too many problems. The biggest issues seem to be the agents optimistically pricing thier listings. The house across the street from me has been on the market for about 8-9 months. It is the same floorplan as mine, except they enclosed the screened porch giving about 300 sf more. He is asking 349 and I just sold mine for 233 after being listed for 2.5 months.

Looking at what the area is commanding mine was priced reasonably. His is more inline with the pond front houses listing in the area. The only pond near his house is the cement one in his back yard.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 12:18 PM   #238
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by lets-retire
On the west side of the state, it seems that accurately priced houses sell without too many problems. The biggest issues seem to be the agents optimistically pricing thier listings. The house across the street from me has been on the market for about 8-9 months. It is the same floorplan as mine, except they enclosed the screened porch giving about 300 sf more. He is asking 349 and I just sold mine for 233 after being listed for 2.5 months.

Looking at what the area is commanding mine was priced reasonably. His is more inline with the pond front houses listing in the area. The only pond near his house is the cement one in his back yard.
That is a 30% difference, where in the country are you?

SWR
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 12:37 PM   #239
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Look out below!


http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/25/news...ales/index.htm

Realtors: Home sales now a 'buyer's market'
Sales fell for third straight month in June; nearly flat prices make double-digit gains seem like a distant memory.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- It's official - even the nation's leading group of real estate agents now says it's a buyers' market in housing, as a soaring supply of homes for sale means nearly flat prices and longer waits for sellers.

The news came in the National Association of Realtors' report for June, which showed that home sales fell to the slowest pace since January last month while price gains were the smallest in over a decade.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 12:41 PM   #240
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Since there are so many Floridians on this thread, you all might find this interesting, on the topic of how property tax increases are making it hard for some to move within the state in FL:
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pb...5/-1/SPECIAL09

I am amazed at how insane the whole property tax situation has become in much of the country, and yet how little media attention it gets. Having just sold our house in western WA, I've been looking at lots of listings here and elsewhere (mainly AZ, where we're moving, but just renting for now). It's common to see a 30-50% difference between the current county-appraised value of a house, and the asking price. A lot of houses listed at ridiculous prices and not selling, at least around us. but if someone does buy at the inflated price, or anywhere near it, the taxes are going to jump up accordingly.

IMO property taxes are the most pernicious kind of tax. They're set according to some arbitrary formula that's not related to your ability to pay, and about which you can do nothing (usually). As we've seen recently, they can rise at a _much_ faster rate than inflation. For retirees, this problem seems at least as bad as the escalating cost of health care.

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