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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 12:47 PM   #241
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by eridanus
Look out below!
Yup. 6.8 months inventory now on the market. Condos now have an 8+ month inventory, likely from all the would-be flippers who are getting their asses handed to them.

I can see that NM condo now... at 50% lower than current prices.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 01:10 PM   #242
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

The RE market here is still going up. The bubble is not slowing down...partly because it was late getting here (just like everything else) so our bubble is just now expanding. I just received my RE tax statement for this years taxes and the estimated value is up more than 20% from last year. Recent sales in the area and even Zillow all seem to show the same relative trend. The house has now increased in value over 35% in 3.5 years.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 01:18 PM   #243
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I've been in SoCal for the last week or so and picked up a few housing anecdotes.

We're staying at a place in Irvine -- one of the hottest markets in SoCal.* *The house next door is for sale.* *Zillow says it's worth $900K+.* *Recent comps were around $880K.* *The place has been on the market for months, has had several price reductions, and is now priced at $845K.* *Still no sale.* *Nothing wrong with the place -- built in 2001 and still like new.

One of my BIL's works for a large builder based down here.* *They have a hiring freeze.

A friend had a conversation with a VP from another large builder.* *They are seeing crazy cancelation rates.* *Over 50% in some markets.* *He says if you want a good deal on a house, take out a contract on a new one, and cancel the contract.* * Builders are *very* motivated to save those sales.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 01:29 PM   #244
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveR
The RE market here is still going up.* The bubble is not slowing down...partly because it was late getting here (just like everything else) so our bubble is just now expanding.* I just received my RE tax statement for this years taxes and the estimated value is up more than 20% from last year.* Recent sales in the area and even Zillow all seem to show the same relative trend.* The house has now increased in value over 35% in 3.5 years.*
my wife laughs at me when i tell her that our place is worth what someone will pay for it when we have to sell it, not some magical number she reads about

I bought an apartment in NYC for $135,000 in 2003. People in the neighborhood are asking $240,000 now for places that aren't renovated and ours has been completely renovated. She says we won't get a penny less than $250,000. I tell her I'll believe it when i see it.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 01:34 PM   #245
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

SWR--I'm in the Tampa area.

Timo--It's a good thing we have a lot of old people down here. *A lot of houses/condos come on the market simply because people pass on, not because they move on. *This at least keeps some of the property taxes keeping pace with government spending. *It seems the people who are having the hardest time affording the increase in taxes are those who have been in the same house for a long time. *These also seem to be the same people complaining that they can't move. *If I were ging to stay in this state until retirment, I'd sell the same time I retired and move to a less congested area.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 01:49 PM   #246
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Yup. 6.8 months inventory now on the market. Condos now have an 8+ month inventory, likely from all the would-be flippers who are getting their asses handed to them.

I can see that NM condo now... at 50% lower than current prices.
You wanna feel the screw?

A bunch of apartment buildings in the Sacramento CA area "went condo", sold a portion of their units, and then when the rest wouldnt sell...went back to being an apartment building!

So voila...you paid $300k for a 2 bedroom condo that was supposed to convert and now you own an apartment in a building where a portion are owners and most are renters!

Good luck on THAT resale...
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 01:50 PM   #247
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
You wanna feel the screw?

A bunch of apartment buildings in the Sacramento CA area "went condo", sold a portion of their units, and then when the rest wouldnt sell...went back to being an apartment building!

So voila...you paid $300k for a 2 bedroom condo that was supposed to convert and now you own an apartment in a building where a portion are owners and most are renters!

Good luck on THAT resale...

Eh, caveat emptor. Always risk when you buy at a discount to the full meal deal.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 02:15 PM   #248
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Those conversions are a total disaster in my area, and yet they keep doing it! People are paying as much as I did for my house to get an 800 sq. foot apartment conversion in a questionable (I'm being kind) neighborhood. Right on a busy intersection with the bus depot and across from an Albertsons.

It's my understanding this is what's pushing out the condo inventory and crashing it's values...?
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 04:08 PM   #249
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

june 05 to june 06

miami-dade went up another 4%

fort lauderdale dipped to $377,400 from $378,000 (medium price), about where it's been all year.

palm beach county dropped to $405,500 from $406,800 after having hit a high of $421k in november 2005 and the so-far-recent-low of $390k in jan 2006.

statewide prices rose 3% june to june.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider
Lazyg4n:

Here in St Augustine, prices seem stable now, but there are a lot of reduced signs. People are not really selling the homes though, I see the same ones evey month in the mags and in the paper. (Taxes ~ $16 per 1k)
you live in a really pretty area, at least it was from when i was a kid until my last visit back in the 70s. my favorite uncle lived in jax and kept his boat in st augustine later in life, right next to hoss's boat (of bonanza fame). before moving to a condo--been a long while but i think it was in area called baymeadows--he had a wonderful house right on the st john river. you could almost land an airplane in that backyard. can't imagine what the taxes would be on that today but i'm certain i couldn't touch it.

taxes here in broward are just sick. new homeowners pay $23 per 1k. thanx to "save our homes" homestead exemption, i pay less than $1,500 to live in a house worth more than $400k. there is talk of reducing millage but i doubt they'll lower enough for anyone to notice much.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lets-retire
On the west side of the state, it seems that accurately priced houses sell without too many problems....He is asking 349 and I just sold mine for 233 after being listed for 2.5 months.
i think this is a very good observation and i see similar in our area. there's a house nearby which hasn't sold probably in 5 or 6 months. it's been listed at $400k which i thought from the get-go was too high even for the insane 2005 period. it's a nice parcel, but directly across from rental apartments, is only 800 or 900 sf and hasn't been updated since it was built probably in the late 1940s. the current owners (they bought right about when things peaked) haven't even planted a shrub. i see on realtor.com the price just dropped to $350k which looks about right as either a teardown (i don't think our lots would sell for less than that) or to add $60,000 to upgrade the house. it would have sold eventually, problem was he had it listed at the 2008 price, not at the 2006 one, so of course, it would have taken 2 years to sell.

Quote:
Originally Posted by timo
Since there are so many Floridians on this thread, you all might find this interesting, on the topic of how property tax increases are making it hard for some to move within the state in FL:
http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pb...5/-1/SPECIAL09

I am amazed at how insane the whole property tax situation has become in much of the country, and yet how little media attention it gets.
more likely this forum sports more florida bashers than resident participants. not a problem. we've survived numerous named storms. we can handle a few hits from some screen-named clouds.

you are absolutely correct on the tax issue though. sometimes i think i'd like to "downsize" from my overpriced little cottage but i simply couldn't afford to move & increase my taxes seven-fold. so i am trapped in a totally wonderful little house just a 3-mile bike ride to the beach. woe is me.

there is talk here about to a california-ish tax thingy whereby we can take at least part of our existing homesteaded exemption with us were we to move within the county or state. nothing yet on that. the best idea someone came up with but then someone else immediately shot down was allowing us to sell our exemption along with our house. they feared it would bring in speculators and drive up our prices too much. i guess that wouldn't be good for the state but boy would that be great for me.

what i totally don't understand about taxes is that now that prices have risen so much and government is collecting billions more, how come i don't notice any improvement in services? (not that it needed improving--it's really quite good.) but, um, where's all that newly collected money going?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
Those conversions are a total disaster in my area, and yet they keep doing it!...It's my understanding this is what's pushing out the condo inventory and crashing it's values...?
here we have a combo of conversions and new builds pushing inventory, add to that higher prices, taxes and insurance. i'll be glad if some of the conversions bust. as i've mentioned on another post, in just the last year or two (i forget just what i read now), we lost about 25% of our rental housing stock. if we don't recapture that i'm afraid all our restaurants are gonna turn into self-service cafeterias. and then i really will be trapped.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 04:57 PM   #250
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Dude, I'm just not keeping up. Let me consolidate your comments & questions into one post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex
So, are suggesting that this and all other government studies are essentially steaming piles of BS??
Yes, your tax dollars at work. Data provided for taxes is probably pretty accurate, but surveys are usually crap whether they're paid for by the govt or by TH's former employer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex
yet you still spend lots and lots of time revealing all sorts of personal data on this forum......are you being compensated? or do you do it for other reasons? I'd guess that you get something else out of it. As do the people that participate in polls and surveys.
Yes, I think so. I enjoy writing. I think the personal info provides credibility, although I "went public" to deal with a particularly antagonistic poster.

Asking & responding to questions on this forum forces me to organize my thoughts, figure out what I'm doing & why, and understand it well enough to explain it to someone else without inviting comments like "Hairball!"

If filling in survey ovals with #2 pencils or blue-black ink makes other people feel happy & fulfilled, kindly send me names & addresses and I'll send them my surveys.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex
Ok - do you have that data? I would not be surprised if it was pretty close to (within the margin of error) the Census data.
Nope. I wouldn't be surprised either, but I'd be a lot more confident in the quality of the data.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 05:20 PM   #251
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Dude, I'm just not keeping up. Let me consolidate your comments & questions into one post:Yes, your tax dollars at work. Data provided for taxes is probably pretty accurate, but surveys are usually crap whether they're paid for by the govt or by TH's former employer.
Yes, I think so. I enjoy writing. I think the personal info provides credibility, although I "went public" to deal with a particularly antagonistic poster.

Asking & responding to questions on this forum forces me to organize my thoughts, figure out what I'm doing & why, and understand it well enough to explain it to someone else without inviting comments like "Hairball!"

If filling in survey ovals with #2 pencils or blue-black ink makes other people feel happy & fulfilled, kindly send me names & addresses and I'll send them my surveys.
Nope. I wouldn't be surprised either, but I'd be a lot more confident in the quality of the data.
Thanks for your reply, I appreciate your candor. It is especially nice to have a civilized discussion without being insulted by an arrogant, overbearing, 'forum' bully. Especially when the bully has serious anger issues and a propensity for one word replies like - Hairball! ( maybe he has one in his throat?) Does this forum have an 'Ignore' feature?

At any rate, I agree that the Census data is far from perfect - but it is close enough for government work (pun intended..haha) and as reliable as anything else that the Gov't puts out. I believe that if we were to compare the gov't data to private sources (if we could find them) the numbers would be comparable.

That being said, I still maintain that all real estate is local. Some areas will be more effected than others and some won't be touched at all. A nice home in a popular area with good schools, plentiful jobs, and low crime is always going to be valuable. In ten years we will all be wishing we could of bought at today's prices. It is and always will be about location.



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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 06:24 PM   #252
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex
Thanks for your reply, I appreciate your candor. It is especially nice to have a civilized discussion without being insulted by an arrogant, overbearing, 'forum' bully. Especially when the bully has serious anger issues and a propensity for one word replies like - Hairball!
Really? Can you point out where I demonstrated any anger, arrogance or overbearing anything towards YOU?

I pointed out that a particular paper you referenced might not contain the most trustworthy of data. Backed up by my decades of experience running exactly these sorts of 'studies' and 'surveys'.

Your response was to attack me personally.

I gave you the benefit of the doubt in presuming you just had a hairball that made you feel personally attached to the quality of the external data point that you provided.

Quote:
Does this forum have an 'Ignore' feature?
Oh how I wish.

I hope you preferred this detailed response to your note, rather than the one word response I was prepared to offer.

Butthead.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 06:28 PM   #253
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Folks, you have to make allowances for the fact that some of us are still working and are stressed out. Heck, I haven't had a chance to shoot a coworker in weeks!*
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 06:33 PM   #254
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by timo

IMO property taxes are the most pernicious kind of tax. They're set according to some arbitrary formula that's not related to your ability to pay, and about which you can do nothing (usually). As we've seen recently, they can rise at a _much_ faster rate than inflation.
The advantage I can see from the POV of the taxing authority is that the taxpayer cannot escape property taxes. No fiddling, no creative accounting, just pay up or move. And in his new home he will be taxed by that local taxing authority.* :P

Ha
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 06:38 PM   #255
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
my wife laughs at me when i tell her that our place is worth what someone will pay for it when we have to sell it, not some magical number she reads about

I bought an apartment in NYC for $135,000 in 2003. People in the neighborhood are asking $240,000 now for places that aren't renovated and ours has been completely renovated. She says we won't get a penny less than $250,000. I tell her I'll believe it when i see it.
Is this near a subway stop? Does it have AC? Walk-up or elevator? How big, and br/bath #.

This price seems quite good to me, anywhere but Staten Island. Your wife is probably right!

BTW, why are you selling?

Ha
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 08:06 PM   #256
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
Really? Can you point out where I demonstrated any anger, arrogance or overbearing anything towards YOU?

I pointed out that a particular paper you referenced might not contain the most trustworthy of data. Backed up by my decades of experience running exactly these sorts of 'studies' and 'surveys'.

Your response was to attack me personally.

I gave you the benefit of the doubt in presuming you just had a hairball that made you feel personally attached to the quality of the external data point that you provided.
Oh how I wish.

I hope you preferred this detailed response to your note, rather than the one word response I was prepared to offer.

Butthead.
don't stress Bugs, How do you know I was even talking about you? Guilty consciounce? Maybe you're just an avocado?
PS- I do like your new signature- Butthead is a good choice for you.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-25-2006, 10:02 PM   #257
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Hi
Its gotta be overpriced or not in a great area. We run the gamet of really expensive areas in fort lauderdale to slums. I find it hard to believe she cant atleast break even but then again not everyone paid a fair price when they bought



Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider
That contradicts a little of what I heard from a friend in the Fort, that has had her home on the market for 9 months and can't sell it. It does not seem to be over priced at all and is in a nice area. She has to move and will most likely end up taking a loss or breaking even over what she paid 2 years ago in order to sell it.

So you see depending on who you talk to the answers to the housing situation are different.

SWR
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-26-2006, 06:41 AM   #258
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
Is this near a subway stop? Does it have AC? Walk-up or elevator? How big, and br/bath #.

This price seems quite good to me, anywhere but Staten Island. Your wife is probably right!

BTW, why are you selling?

Ha
I'd be willing to bet that al bundy is in Queens, Brooklyn or the Bronx, and a fair bit away from fashionable areas. Contrary to popular belief, it is possible to live relatively inexpensively in the boundaries of the 5 boros if you don't insist on Manhattan.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-26-2006, 08:09 AM   #259
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
Is this near a subway stop? Does it have AC? Walk-up or elevator? How big, and br/bath #.

This price seems quite good to me, anywhere but Staten Island. Your wife is probably right!

BTW, why are you selling?

Ha
1br in queens in rego park
1 block from subway, AC, elevator and maintenance includes gas and electric. Nice concrete building, very little noise heard from neighbors. around 750 sq ft total.

we're not selling, but my wife says that if we sell in a few years to buy a house we will get that much money. I remember back when co-ops were the rage in the late 1980's and early 1990's and my mom bought one for 80% off the original asking price and values fell when people tried to flip.

my mantra is don't count your money until you have it in your hand.

I remember a few years ago is when I first heard of the strategy of buying more than you can afford on an ARM and selling a few years later for a profit before it resets. Fine for the first people, but if too many people are selling at once than it can be a problem. And there are always people who have to sell their home for whatever reason.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-26-2006, 10:01 AM   #260
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex
don't stress Bugs, How do you know I was even talking about you? Guilty consciounce? Maybe you're just an avocado?
PS- I do like your new signature- Butthead is a good choice for you.
Hmmm...lets see...specifically mentions my post then pretends she isnt talking about me...passive aggressive. Then makes inappropriate use of the term 'avocado' trying to "fit in", indicating a self esteem issue and a yearning for group acceptance.

Gosh I wish I was interested enough to get me to decide which one to pick on.

By the way, I cant remember the name you used to use before, what was it again?
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