Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-01-2006, 11:03 PM   #341
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob
Strong luxury condo sales and the only reason SFR sales are down is because of no inventory.*

That's why I skeptable of them figgers and graphs.*

Call me Honobull
You're probably right, Honobull.* *Sales down 26% YoY?* Prices down month to month?* Inventory levels up 100% YoY (highest levels since 1999)?* Honolulu is obviously in the clear when it comes to this crazy bubble talk.*

But you might want to consider this: when nobody can afford to enter the market (no inventory!?), where is the pool of upgrade buyers going to come from?* *And do you think there's any chance that those new condo buyers might be (gawd forbid) flippers?
__________________

__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-01-2006, 11:37 PM   #342
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab

But you might want to consider this: when nobody can afford to enter the market (no inventory!?), where is the pool of upgrade buyers going to come from?* *And do you think there's any chance that those new condo buyers might be (gawd forbid) flippers?
Nope it's all good!* Market needs to provide at least 26% more entry level SFR's to equalize.* Maybe* not the best time to hold high end properties, but is it ever. " Metric" Best to own the smallest home in the neighborhood.* Flippers are in the ocean.* Most highrise highend new construction is sold by lottery only to owner occupants.*

Akamaibob
__________________

__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 01:19 AM   #343
Moderator Emeritus
laurence's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,234
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

We'll have a better picture in a year or so. If I had the cash for it and didn't need to free it up anytime soon, I would buy a luxury condo in Hawaii myself, but because I want to spend time there, not as an investment. Interest rates alone are a big turn off for me right now.
__________________
laurence is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 08:14 AM   #344
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Yup.* And the recent changes to the BK law make it more likely that the lender will go after the defaulted borrower for the difference between the proceeds from the sale of the house and the amount owed.
Maybe not. Some states allow a quicker and easier foreclosure process if the lender gives up a deficiency. Most states provide that if you take a deed in lieu of foreclosure you must give up the deficiency. Most often the lender goes for speed. Often lenders just want to get the loan off their books.
__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 08:18 AM   #345
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Martha
Maybe not.* Some states allow a quicker and easier foreclosure process if the lender gives up a deficiency. Most* states provide that if you take a deed in lieu of foreclosure you must give up the deficiency.* Most often the lender goes for speed.* Often lenders just want to get the loan off their books.
Interesting. My suspicion is that lenders will probably not find it worth the trouble to go after the deficiencies anway. After all, homeowners wouldn't default on the loan if they had a pile of ready cash laying around.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 08:32 AM   #346
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Another reason to believe that the housing bubble is bursting. This thread has had 10743 views as of this post.
__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 08:52 AM   #347
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 699
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Newspaper reported today that 2006 is the first time in 14 years that real estate prices rose year-on-year in Japan as a national average. (Limited pockets had started recovering previously.)

14 years from peak to trough.

But, it can't happen over there in the US, so don't worry.
__________________
bpp is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 09:18 AM   #348
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Historic Florida
Posts: 1,647
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Martha
Another reason to believe that the housing bubble is bursting. This thread has had 10743 views as of this post.
One of my points exactly. If you, (and everyone else) is talking about it. It WILL happen. Seen most TV news broadcasts lately? Inbetween the wars and a sick Castro that is.

SWR
__________________
"Arguing with an Engineer is like rolling in the mud with a pig. Just remember that the pig likes it."
ShokWaveRider is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 09:44 AM   #349
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Martha
Another reason to believe that the housing bubble is bursting. This thread has had 10743 views as of this post.
Weeeellll...the mineshaft canary just chirped a little. I had reported that developement had all but stopped here, some homes that look like they'd been built-to-suit ended up foreclosed on without being lived in, and then theres the famous "house for sale via piece of white paper and crayon sign on the garage door".

But...yesterday the KBHOME up the street from me plowed a 20 acre field and marked it off...

Not sure if they were just trying to make it pretty or if they're going to start another 100 homes...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 10:57 AM   #350
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,046
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

There is no telling when a bust will occur. The following links about the Hong Kong and Shanghai housing markets may shed some light on the afrermath of run-ups fueled by massive speculation.

Attention, Speculators: Here's a Lesson from Hong Kong's Housing:
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/a...articleid=1194

Shanghai Housing Boom Turning to Bust:
http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/151997.htm
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 01:40 PM   #351
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,291
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I was taking a look at some condos down in Galveston... way overpriced, but it seems they were being bought... so, to my surprise..

PRICED $21,000 UNDER DEVELOPER'S ASKING PRICE FOR COMPARABLE UNIT!!! Beautiful, large 1 bedroom 1 bath with ALL NEW granite countertops in kitchen and bath, 24' ceramic tile in living and dining area. Tile in bedroom as well for easy care. ALL NEW stainless appliances, new full size washer and dryer. Unit overlooks the pool and has an unobstructed view of the Gulf of Mexico. THIS UNIT HAS NEVER BEEN LIVED IN. MOVE IN NOW AND ENJOY THE SUMMER!! Owner is a licensed Real Estate Agent

Hmmm.. still way overpriced for a 750 foot place for $210K...
__________________
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 04:28 PM   #352
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

O'ahu median home price hits $660,000 in July

Advertiser Staff

The median price for both single-family homes and condominiums on O'ahu rose in July, although the volume of sales continued to decline, the Honolulu Board of Realtors reported today.
The median price of a single-family home rose to $660,000 from $639,000 in June and $599,000 in July 2005. The median price of a condominium rose to a record $329,000, up from $310,000 in June and $270,000 in July 2005.

"The pace of residential sales continues to ease, and median prices are being maintained," said Mary Flood, president of the Honolulu Board of Realtors.

There were 379 single-family homes sold during July, down 10 percent from 418 sales a year in the same month a year earlier. Condo sales totaled 498 in July, down 27 percent from a year earlier.

For the first seven months of 2006, sales volume is down 9 percent for single-family homes and down 13 percent for condominiums.

Reported in Honolulu Advertiser today.

Lucky you live Hawaii!
__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 04:39 PM   #353
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob
O'ahu median home price hits $660,000 in July
And remind us, what's the median income in O'ahu?

Honobobble, the same thing is being played out in markets across the country. Sales down. Inventory way up. Prices flat. When inventory gets to about 6 months of sales or so, that's generally when you start to see price drops. You should see it sooner in new construction, since builders don't want to hold onto inventory as long.
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 05:02 PM   #354
gone traveling
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
And remind us, what's the median income in O'ahu?

Honobobble, the same thing is being played out in markets across the country.* *Sales down.* Inventory way up.* *Prices flat.* *When inventory gets to about 6 months of sales or so, that's generally when you start to see price drops.* * You should see it sooner in new construction, since builders don't want to hold onto inventory as long.

Median income rising also!* Honolulu has about the lowest unemployment in the U.S.* Honolulu's entry level inventory is not meeting DEMAND.* I think 6-7% increase YOY, especially when the last year was a record year, is pretty good.* From my experience back in January and April alot of the excess inventory was from people who who sell if they got some rediculous amount that wasn't supported by the comps.* Anything priced well is selling at record prices despite the bubble blab.* I see nothing alarming about sales slowing down after consecutive record years.* New construction between Waikiki and Downtown is going strong.* Maybe Don Ho's right in a few years...."Tiny Bubbles"* It's got a good beat and I can dance to that!
__________________
honobob is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 05:19 PM   #355
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob
Median income rising also!* Honolulu has about the lowest unemployment in the U.S.
I really don't know much about that market, and I'm too lazy to look it up.* *But, let's say that the median household income there is $80K/year.* *The median house costs $660K, so that's an income multiple of 8.25x.* *The historical multiple for the US is around 3x.* *So, either home prices need to get cut in half, or incomes need to more than double for things to get back to normal.

Now, it's valid to ask "why be normal?"* *What's magic about an income multiple of 3x?

For that median income family to buy that median price house, they'd need to come up with a down payment $66,000.* *That's a chunk of cash.* *And that would give them PITI payments of nearly $5000/mo.* * That's $60,000/year for a family earning $80,000/year.

Either these prices are unsustainable, or incomes are going to the moon.
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 05:42 PM   #356
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Now, it's valid to ask "why be normal?"* *What's magic about an income multiple of 3x?
wab,

I have been using the 3x number as the ceiling whenever I discuss house price with others.* But a lot of the people I talk to live in California and Mass.* They just shake their head and dismiss my comment as childish and unrealistic.* I find it best to keep that ratio to myself now.
__________________
Sam is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 05:45 PM   #357
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
I have been using the 3x number as the ceiling whenever I discuss house price with others.* But a lot of the people I talk to live in California and Mass.* They just shake their head and dismiss my comment as childish and unrealistic.* I find it best to keep that ratio to myself now.
Well, to be fair, there are a couple of places where the historical multiple has been over 3x. For example, I think it's been closer to 5x in Silicon Valley due to stock options providing instant down payments, but even in those "rich" areas, current multiples are well above the historical mean.
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 06:24 PM   #358
Full time employment: Posting here.
TargaDave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 588
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
wab,

I have been using the 3x number as the ceiling whenever I discuss house price with others. But a lot of the people I talk to live in California and Mass. They just shake their head and dismiss my comment as childish and unrealistic. I find it best to keep that ratio to myself now.
Not just CA and MA. Lot's of coastal seller denial to go around right now. I've been tracking some NC coastal waterfront closely for a few years. It's fun to watch actually. A few low ball offers coming in but sellers are just not ready to throw in the towel. Wonder how they will feel next year when the cash reserves start drying up? Brokers and RE support people that I talk to are clearly feeling the pain NOW.

__________________
TargaDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 06:32 PM   #359
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Historic Florida
Posts: 1,647
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
I really don't know much about that market, and I'm too lazy to look it up. But, let's say that the median household income there is $80K/year. The median house costs $660K, so that's an income multiple of 8.25x. The historical multiple for the US is around 3x. So, either home prices need to get cut in half, or incomes need to more than double for things to get back to normal.

Now, it's valid to ask "why be normal?" What's magic about an income multiple of 3x?

For that median income family to buy that median price house, they'd need to come up with a down payment $66,000. That's a chunk of cash. And that would give them PITI payments of nearly $5000/mo. That's $60,000/year for a family earning $80,000/year.

Either these prices are unsustainable, or incomes are going to the moon.
The bigger they are the harder they fall. I seem to remember last time this happened. not sure when but something like this is in the Islands past.

SWR
__________________
"Arguing with an Engineer is like rolling in the mud with a pig. Just remember that the pig likes it."
ShokWaveRider is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 08-02-2006, 07:01 PM   #360
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,620
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob
O'ahu median home price hits $660,000 in July
You're on your own, here, Bob, and I'm pretty sure that Stott thinks it's over too...
__________________

__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
How to take advantage of a housing bubble? Sam FIRE and Money 8 03-29-2007 12:21 PM
Psychology of the Housing Bubble (and its collapse) justin Other topics 132 01-26-2007 02:33 PM
What Real Estate Bubble? Art FIRE and Money 76 11-09-2006 03:33 PM
Housing bubble bursts....in Shangai camberiu FIRE and Money 5 01-19-2006 02:12 AM
Bad tax law funding the housing bubble? laurence FIRE and Money 12 08-02-2005 07:48 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:04 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.