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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
08-23-2006, 03:13 PM
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#401
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
That's not ugly-- that's deep-value investing!
We're waiting for the blue light to start flashing in our neighborhood... we can be patient... sometime in the next decade...
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Screw my neighborhood. I already have a house there. I would prefer a nice wooded tract, condo in a sunny destination, etc.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
08-23-2006, 03:32 PM
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#402
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gone traveling
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,146
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Screw my neighborhood. I already have a house there. I would prefer a nice wooded tract, condo in a sunny destination, etc.
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I just cannot do a condo, Too loud! The way they build these things today too much noise from the neighboring units.
We had a place once where the toilet and shower were next to our bedroom from the unit next door! Can you say water sounds toilet flushing sounds!!
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
08-24-2006, 11:10 AM
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#403
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
I'd be thrilled to trade - someday - yard work, fireants, watering restrictions, crabgrass my house in the burbs for a condo, but I fears the ASSociation fees would forever grow out-of-control, consuming the savings of getting rid of the yard...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
08-24-2006, 11:18 AM
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#404
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
... a condo, but I fears the ASSociation fees would forever grow out-of-control, consuming the savings of getting rid of the yard...
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Since it is self-government, be careful to buy in a building that consists of like-minded individuals. SW cousin bought in a building populated by gays and they spent like they were DINKs and her fees went through the roof.
But MIL lives in a complex with (mostly) other retirees and the fees are still very reasonable after 35 years.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
08-24-2006, 11:19 AM
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#405
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 538
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Yeah, HFWR, I've looked at condos but the fees seem too much for me. *I'm almost tempted to hire gardening/yard help during the several months of the year when I need it. *At least, it's just for a few months, while condo fees are for all year long.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
08-24-2006, 11:22 AM
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#406
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
But I'm a cheap bastard I already do all the fertilizing, weedkilling, bush trimming, landscaping; only pay to have the lawn mowed. Worth $16/wk when it's 105 outside...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
08-24-2006, 11:25 AM
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#407
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by flipstress
Yeah, HFWR, I've looked at condos but the fees seem too much for me.
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Same here. A lot of places have a condo glut, so I figure condo prices will take the biggest hit. But some of these new fancy high-rise condos have association fees close to $1000/mo. I wouldn't take one for free!
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
08-24-2006, 11:27 AM
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#408
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 538
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Yikes, and I thought $250 condo fees were too much!
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
08-24-2006, 12:20 PM
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#409
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Central, Ohio, USA
Posts: 2,635
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by flipstress
Yeah, HFWR, I've looked at condos but the fees seem too much for me. I'm almost tempted to hire gardening/yard help during the several months of the year when I need it. At least, it's just for a few months, while condo fees are for all year long.
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Live in a Condo. Condo Fee $207 a month in Central Ohio. For that we get Irrigation, Lawn care, Trash Service, Water, Snow Removal, and Outside Maintenance. 80 Units in 20 Buildings. I do not know how that compares but did not seem too bad to me (first experience with this type of living and so far (approaching a year) so good). Very few young kids (either pre or post teens) around so most must be pretty "seniors". We looked for one that DID not have the pool and club house (to pay for). One we found is about 1/2 mile from public golf course and a new city pool.
__________________
Vietnam Veteran, CW4 USA, Retired 1979
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
08-26-2006, 01:18 PM
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#410
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 81
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Hey NSF* * *RE "You may have thought ugly was coming but ugly is here already."
The WSJ article* only tells half the story.... that castle is full of flaws. That house that wouldn't sell has been on the historic house tour in Herndon* and is very old and is a "Money Pit" waiting to happen,* as well as the fact that a 100+ town homes have been aproved to* be built as neighbors..* *
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
09-06-2006, 09:04 PM
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#411
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 899
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Sales in Silicon Valley are slowing but prices seem to be hanging in there. A RE flyer that I got in the mail today listed the following sales between May 31 and August 15:
List Price/Sale Price (in k$)
734/775
739/745
739/795
739/739
849/830
898/960
940/940
1049/1065
1098/1100
So most sales were still above the List Price.
The other thing that seems to be happening is that the market is segmenting with the further out neighborhoods slowing more that the close in neighborhoods. (I'm in a close in neighborhood.)
MB
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
09-06-2006, 09:16 PM
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#412
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,327
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider
Me and DW are visiting Washington DC right now, she bacame a citizen recently. Of course I had to look at the housing market.* While a rabbit hutch here cost $600k I have noticed plenty of reduced signs and people offering $10 - $15k off closing closts.
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I live very close to DC and while there is TONS of inventory on the market and prices have slipped some from year ago, I expect things to go more flat than down as Fed Gov't appears to be ramping up in some areas. Due to the military base realignment we have thousands of military and civilian employees relocating to Ft Meade, MD and Ft Belvoir, VA, for example.
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
09-06-2006, 10:17 PM
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#413
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by mb
Sales in Silicon Valley are slowing but prices seem to be hanging in there.
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Depends on how you look at it.* *Most areas are still showing a price increase vs last year, but the OFHEO just came out with their latest report, and they say that the *rate* of appreciation has taken the largest drop since they've been tracking appreciation for the last 30+ years.
Report
Appreciation for the most recent quarter was 1.17 percent, or an
annualized rate of 4.68 percent. The quarterly rate reflects a sharp decline of more than one
percentage point from the previous quarter and is the lowest rate of appreciation since the fourth
quarter of 1999. The decline in the quarterly rate over the past year is the sharpest since the beginning
of OFHEO’s House Price Index (HPI) in 1975. The figures were released today by OFHEO Director
James B. Lockhart, as part of the HPI, a quarterly report analyzing housing price appreciation trends.
“These data are a strong indication that the housing market is cooling in a very significant way,” said
Lockhart. “Indeed, the deceleration appears in almost every region of the country.”
HI, CA, FL, and NV had the biggest cooling off.
Edit: here's Silicon Valley:
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Rank=106 Annual=10.29, Quarter=1.79, 5-Year=46.89
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
09-06-2006, 10:23 PM
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#414
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by mb
Sales in Silicon Valley are slowing but prices seem to be hanging in there. A RE flyer that I got in the mail today listed the following sales between May 31 and August 15:
List Price/Sale Price (in k$)
734/775
739/745
739/795
739/739
849/830
898/960
940/940
1049/1065
1098/1100
So most sales were still above the List Price.
The other thing that seems to be happening is that the market is segmenting with the further out neighborhoods slowing more that the close in neighborhoods. (I'm in a close in neighborhood.)
MB
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It's really amazing. Part of the reason is that jobs are heating up in Silicon Valley. My brother was let go by Sun Micro System, Inc. in Colorado. It took him less than a week to find a job in the valley.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
09-07-2006, 07:17 AM
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#415
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,719
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazz4cash
I live very close to DC and while there is TONS of inventory on the market and prices have slipped some from year ago, I expect things to go more flat than down as Fed Gov't appears to be ramping up in some areas. Due to the military base realignment we have thousands of military and civilian employees relocating to Ft Meade, MD and Ft Belvoir, VA, for example.
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Yep, seen that as well. The folks in the military, however, aren't buying luxury condos or $600k+ houses. They're buying $250k condos and townhouses in the far suburbs (even around Baltimore if they work at "the Fort") and are commuting long distances just to own a piece of property. Closer in towards DC, there are numerous unfinished and late-model luxury condos, as well as McMansions in far-flung Virginia suburbs for sale (as evidenced by TV infomercials on Sunday mornings touting various local properties). They're still overpriced in my mind, so I wouldn't consider touching them until their prices drop at least another 15-20%. Most folks I know that are in the market for a house in the DC area are also waiting for prices to drop.
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He had one of those rare smiles with a quality of eternal reassurance in it . . . It faced, or seemed to face, the whole external world for an instant and then concentrated on you with an irresistible prejudice in your favor. -- The Great Gatsby, F. Scott Fitzgerald
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
09-07-2006, 10:03 PM
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#416
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 899
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Depends on how you look at it.* *
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Rank=106 Annual=10.29, Quarter=1.79, 5-Year=46.89
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Agree, the data that I have seen is that we are still up year over year but the price change is now flat but prices not yet decreasing. That seems to be supported by the data that you posted. (I didn't read the article.)
If the 2nd derivative remains constant we will start going negative shortly but I haven't seen that yet. We might see it first in S. San Jose and other regions where the average sale time is much longer than in say Sunnyvale.
My WAG is that we will drop about 20% over the next year or two but that we will not have the large decline like that seen for example in Houston in the 80s.
MB
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
09-07-2006, 10:55 PM
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#417
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by mb
We might see it first in S. San Jose and other regions where the average sale time is much longer than in say Sunnyvale.
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Sacramento seems to be dropping faster than just about any other region of CA (they even passed San Diego recently in price drops). One theory is that Sac had a large influx of "investors" from the BA who are now exiting the market, so the contraction is starting even further south.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
04-04-2007, 01:22 PM
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#418
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 7,113
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
I know that this is a topic resurrection, but I found a great link for those who are watching the real estate market: find the current housing inventory in many local markets, total, single family, condo by price bracket. I found it very interesting.
http://www.paperdinero.com/Inventory.aspx
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Duck bjorn.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
04-04-2007, 02:11 PM
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#419
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: west bloomfield MI
Posts: 2,223
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
It was interesting reading through the first two pages and last page, thx for bumping.
It's a credit bubble more than a housing bubble. If rates go up, the bubble pops quicker.
We just bought our house (new contruction) 15 months ago (dec 06). There is a market house sitting across the street which listed at 330k and they are now asking 290k for it. Demand is low for sure.
The bubble will not burst if employment remains strong. I think we are at 3% unemployment now. Anything less than 5% unemployment is considered a strong job market. If people can afford to pay their bills (stay employed), anything bursting will be the result of CREDIT and not the actual housing market.
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Light travels faster than sound. That is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak. One person's stupidity is another person's job security.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
04-04-2007, 02:22 PM
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#420
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat
I know that this is a topic resurrection, but I found a great link for those who are watching the real estate market: find the current housing inventory in many local markets, total, single family, condo by price bracket. I found it very interesting.
http://www.paperdinero.com/Inventory.aspx
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You want links? I got links!
Here's a nice inventory and price tracker:
http://www.housingtracker.net/
Here's a price predictor!
http://www.thebubblebuster.com/
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