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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-04-2007, 03:24 PM   #421
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Interesting to see lenders stepping-up mortgage modifications in the hope of heading off the hemorage .... I imagine this works if the loans are still in-house. If the secondary market already has your loan ... tough luck.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17949352/
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-04-2007, 03:25 PM   #422
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by jIMOh
The bubble will not burst if employment remains strong. I think we are at 3% unemployment now. Anything less than 5% unemployment is considered a strong job market. If people can afford to pay their bills (stay employed), anything bursting will be the result of CREDIT and not the actual housing market.
Agreed. But the early stages of a credit contraction are already unfolding. It remains to be seen how far it goes. My suspicion is that it will get worse than the Fed wants it to, which will result in rates cuts later this year.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-04-2007, 03:26 PM   #423
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by jIMOh
The bubble will not burst if employment remains strong. I think we are at 3% unemployment now. Anything less than 5% unemployment is considered a strong job market. If people can afford to pay their bills (stay employed), anything bursting will be the result of CREDIT and not the actual housing market.
I don't think the folks that paid $800k for a 4 BR in a so-so neighborhood a year ago will be able to appreciate the nuanced semantic distinction you make between housing and credit bubble implosions after they lose a few hundred thousand dollars.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-04-2007, 03:29 PM   #424
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Agreed. But the early stages of a credit contraction are already unfolding. It remains to be seen how far it goes. My suspicion is that it will get worse than the Fed wants it to, which will result in rates cuts later this year.
I dont see them cutting rates if inflation continues at its present rate. I dont see how they can without it getting out of control.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-04-2007, 03:40 PM   #425
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
I don't think the folks that paid $800k for a 4 BR in a so-so neighborhood a year ago will be able to appreciate the nuanced semantic distinction you make between housing and credit bubble implosions after they lose a few hundred thousand dollars.
this is my point- even if the value of the house decreases, it's only a paper loss unless the house is sold.

you only lose money on an investment/asset if you sell it.

The credit bubble is popping (sub prime). If someone paid for the 800k house with interest only terms, the fine print says it's interest only for 10 years, then reammortizes to a 20 yr fixed loan the last 20... that's a credit problem... not a housing problem, IMO. Someone extended too much credit to the borrower.

I don't think rates are going anywhere too soon. If employment remains strong, that will drive the economy and should be what drives the economy.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-04-2007, 03:42 PM   #426
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by jIMOh
you only lose money on an investment/asset if you sell it.
Sometimes, the only way to keep the money you made on an investment/asset is to sell it.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-04-2007, 03:44 PM   #427
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mwsinron
I dont see them cutting rates if inflation continues at its present rate. I dont see how they can without it getting out of control.
Well, if housing bashes the economy, it will take consumer spending with it. That would take a lot of inflationary pressure off the economy. Time will tell. I think a lot of chickens will be coming home to roost in the spring selling season for housing.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-04-2007, 04:09 PM   #428
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat
I know that this is a topic resurrection, but I found a great link for those who are watching the real estate market: find the current housing inventory in many local markets, total, single family, condo by price bracket. I found it very interesting.

http://www.paperdinero.com/Inventory.aspx
my historic high is the same as my historic low. i guess i'm not getting anywhere.

Current Count: 1069
Historical Low: 1069
Historical High: 1069
Average Range: $450,001.00 - $500,000.00
Median Range: $350,001.00 - $400,000.00
Listed Market Cap: $531,625,000.00


and here's the inherited house area:

Current Count: 2535
Historical Low: 2159
Historical High: 2547
Average Range: $850,001.00 - $900,000.00
Median Range: $500,001.00 - $550,000.00
Listed Market Cap: $2,167,975,000.00


i have no idea what these figures mean, but they sure are pretty.



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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-04-2007, 04:56 PM   #429
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan
Interesting to see lenders stepping-up mortgage modifications in the hope of heading off the hemorage .... I imagine this works if the loans are still in-house. If the secondary market already has your loan ... tough luck.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17949352/
yeah........that artical contains the info I've been waiting to hear. Foreclosure only adds cost and reduces value. What I fear is overkill via some one-size fits all solution like a 6 month moratorium.

This cracked me up...............
"The Mod Squad is planning a six-city tour; it hopes to attract struggling homeowners to information and counseling sessions with offers of $100 gift cards to Home Depot Inc. The number is (877) 362-6631."
...........I could sure use one of those gift cards!
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-05-2007, 12:31 AM   #430
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Well, if housing bashes the economy, it will take consumer spending with it.
It'll impact both consumer spending and employment. This just in:

link

But job cuts in housing-related industries (real estate, construction and mortgage lending) surged 346 percent to 21,245 from 4,764 in the first quarter a year ago. The first-quarter total for these three sectors nearly matches the 2006 total of 22,814.


“While many have predicted that the housing market has hit bottom, the situation seems only to worsen as home builders continue to report slumping orders,” says said John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.


“Now we are seeing the impact hit traditional as well as sub-prime mortgage lenders as demand for loans declines and the number of foreclosures skyrockets,” he says.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-05-2007, 05:46 AM   #431
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I moved to the crazy building area and people moving to Wake county North Carolina area last summer. The building and selling has slowed even here to a crawl!

Stuff is sitting not sold even in the prime areas Cary and North Raleigh. New home starts in these areas are also down by almost 50%.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-05-2007, 07:22 AM   #432
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by tryan
Interesting to see lenders stepping-up mortgage modifications in the hope of heading off the hemorage .... I imagine this works if the loans are still in-house. If the secondary market already has your loan ... tough luck.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17949352/
i wonder how they work it out with the MBS and all.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-05-2007, 07:23 AM   #433
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
i wonder how they work it out with the MBS and all.
As I understand it, the servicers in these deals have absolute discretion on whether or not to forclose, modify, etc.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-06-2007, 01:05 PM   #434
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Today's Dallas Morning News:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont...e.378dc47.html
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 04-06-2007, 11:14 PM   #435
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Anyone else hoping for this?
I will not be able to afford a bazillion dollar home on my own (but a 250K home in the next 24 mos or so will be just fine...praying for a house on market for long time to wheedle down)...plus am in the middle of a few foreclosure "flips" - we'll see how those go by the end of the year.
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