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Re: More Fuel For the Housing Fire
Old 06-12-2006, 12:08 PM   #41
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Re: More Fuel For the Housing Fire

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Good article, but it only addresses the question of whether there is a bubble. I don't think anybody can question the bubble's existence any longer.

So, now the questions are:

Q) What can we do to hedge?
A) No friggin idea.
Reading all the doom and gloom (and I am not arguing with it) I wonder why folks on the other threads are trashing immediate annuities so hard. Not to start that one up again
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-12-2006, 12:23 PM   #42
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
Most homeowners move within 7 years. Almost all within 10. People who stay past ten years are quite rare.
Man this seems strange to me. I live on Capitol Hill in DC, a metro area that is described as very transient. Mentally counting row houses to my left and right I see the seven to my immediate left and three to my immediate right (end of block) ALL being here over 10 years. Of those ten, at least six of us have been here more than TWENTY years. Across the street things are not so extreme but still more than 50% are 10 years + and there were several deaths causing turnover of long term home owners.

Some of you must be turning them over yearly to make up for my neighborhood. Seriously, I remember reading somewhere that nieghborhoods go in cycles - young folks move in to new construction, stay for years rainsing kids, grow to a ripe old age and then all die off together and the nieghborhood starts getting young again - rinse and repeat.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-12-2006, 12:37 PM   #43
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Actually I see the housing value a little differently.

In order of change:

1. Condos where there is a lot of inventory comming on line.
2. Far flung burbs where the cost of gas hits commuters.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-12-2006, 12:41 PM   #44
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
Some of you must be turning them over yearly to make up for my neighborhood.* Seriously, I remember reading somewhere that nieghborhoods go in cycles - young folks move in to new construction, stay for years rainsing kids, grow to a ripe old age and then all die off together and the nieghborhood starts getting young again - rinse and repeat.
I just came back from a visit to my old home city. On the block where I lived, many people who have moved in with young kids are the grandchildren of my parents generation. Sometimes they live in the same houses, sometimes in neighboring houses, or a street of two over. This is an urban neighborhood, with bus service, lots of hospital and parks, etc.

My parents lived there for > 40 years, and my sister lived in their house when they had to move out. She had to move, because she couldn't afford their house, but she and her family live nearby.

I have owned my current house for 30 years. It is the only house I have ever owned, though I had to rent it out occasionally when I had to be elsewhere for work.

I can see why people want to get the hell out of a typical suburb asap, but city or country can be different. I have cousins that still own and live on the farm where my Grandfather was born before the end of the War Between the States. There are values here that don't come cheaply.

Ha
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-12-2006, 12:52 PM   #45
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
Some of you must be turning them over yearly to make up for my neighborhood.
Blame the military. Spouse and I put together 14 moves (four of them together!) over 21 years.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-12-2006, 12:54 PM   #46
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I've stayed seven years twice, oddly it was almost 7 years to the day.

Three years in the current residence is in third place.

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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-12-2006, 12:56 PM   #47
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Here are some stats from NAR:

26 percent of all repeat home buyers in 1995 had been in their previous home three years or less.

Fully 60 percent had been in their previous home seven years or less.

Only 28 percent had been there 10 years or more.


Article
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-12-2006, 12:59 PM   #48
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

And 90% of those there 10 years or longer had sold or attempted to sell their house.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-12-2006, 01:45 PM   #49
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Here are some stats from NAR:

26 percent of all repeat home buyers in 1995 had been in their previous home three years or less.

Fully 60 percent had been in their previous home seven years or less.

Only 28 percent had been there 10 years or more.


Article
I wonder if that "repeat home buyers" qualifier at the top is limiting the sample. Let me take my brothers and sisters as an example - six of us: three have been in their current homes for 30+ years, Two of us for 24+ years, and one sister (Steamboat Springs) got an unsolicited offer she can't refuse and is selling hers after 10 years.

All these transients must be moving to some pretty sterile places if they want/need to get out so fast. Or "repeat buyers" is tapping a young group when people are getting started and buying up.

Can't be military since most of them are smart enough to follow Nord's advice in another thread to be careful before you buy
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-12-2006, 02:46 PM   #50
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Heat humidity hurricaines yea a great place. sorry man but Florida does nothing for me.
By the way a Hurricaine is approaching today June 12th.
It is here and so far we are thankfull for the rain it is bringing. When I lived in SoCAL we use to tell everyone how bad the Quakes were, hoping they would not come. We had 3 or 4 in my time there.

So for all the hurricane shy, we get so many! They affect every household in the state. Please re-consider moving to Florida, Please.... And by the way you cannot get insurance for protection either. I am in my safe room typing this message.

Oh and don't move to Oklahoma either, those Tornados.....

SWR
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-12-2006, 06:58 PM   #51
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Originally Posted by mikew
Since that was written last year, I just checked on markets in Oz and London.* *Oz is taking a small hit, and London took a small hit last year, but they already have another run-up after their interest rates were cut:

Article

This thing is going to unwind slowly....
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-13-2006, 04:06 PM   #52
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Does any one have a similar graph for Houston, TX?* I'm curious.

Thanks,
Sam

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab


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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-13-2006, 04:10 PM   #53
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
Does any one have a similar graph for Houston, TX?* I'm curious.
I haven't seen one, but I believe most of TX (and places like GA) have been pretty flat for years, with relatively constant inventory levels.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-13-2006, 05:12 PM   #54
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
I haven't seen one, but I believe most of TX (and places like GA) have been pretty flat for years, with relatively constant inventory levels.
From what I can tell, Houston TX is one of the cheapest places to buy a home in the country providing you can afford the property taxes.

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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-13-2006, 07:27 PM   #55
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Most agree that housing is bound to revert to the mean. If this spawns a recession, and if this drags on like it did in Japan, what does that say of the stock market? Will it be flat for a decade, will it crash? Would some of you economically savvy people explain the effect of a major housing bubble burst on the stock market?
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-13-2006, 07:38 PM   #56
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

If the housing decline causes a recession, then we'll see an initial drop in the stock market as forward earnings expectations are reset.* *After that, you get whatever the economy gives you.

The bigger question is whether we've really worked out all the excesses of the 2000 peak from the market.* *The 2003-2006 rally (and housing bubble) was induced by *lots* of stimulus.* *Now that the stimulus is gone, do we continue the 2000-2002 decline?* * That's sort of the secular bear theory.

And in the meantime, we've created a humongous debt burden ... just as boomers are about to retire....

The market may do fine, but it'll be swimming up stream pretty hard if it does.

Personally, I want to hedge my bets.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-13-2006, 09:35 PM   #57
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

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Personally, I want to hedge my bets.
you can!* futures and option contracts based on residential real estate indexes trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange -- 10 major markets (boston, NY, LA etc) plus a composite. this isn't my cup of tea, so i wouldn't hazzard a guess as to how well it might work, but someone might be able to advise.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-13-2006, 09:54 PM   #58
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
And in the meantime, we've created a humongous debt burden ... just as boomers are about to retire....
That's just it - I bet a lot of boomers don't retire. They're in too much debt, they haven't saved enough, etc., etc. They'll keep working and helping the economy.

Audrey
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-13-2006, 10:28 PM   #59
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I dont see a bubble where I live in so-cal and neither do alot of experts. All Real estate, like politics, is local. I live in an area that is very desireable so I am not worried. If prices drop, so what? I'm not sellling for a few more years anyway.....
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-13-2006, 10:56 PM   #60
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

No doubt that we have a bubble in NY. I've been trying to sell my home on Long Island and have no luck at all. We've done all the usual things, lowered the price, open house, agent open houses. We can't even get anyone to look. The prices all around us are also droping and no one is selling.

Today we offered an additional 5K bonus to the selling agent and lowered the price to a price range to stir the pot. This may bring in some low ball offers but I'll listen.
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