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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 08:05 AM   #61
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

from yahoo news:

Markets seldom disappoint both bulls and bears for long. But over the coming years the US housing market looks likely to do just that, according to a study by Harvard University.

"Although housing prices are stretched, it is hard to see the catalyst for a crisis in the market," says Nicolas Retsinas, director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. "The overvaluation looks pretty well balanced by longer term supports for house prices, so we may just see a few years with little action. Houses will revert to being something to live in rather than money makers."

So why will non-home-owners be deprived of the crash they have been waiting for?


http://tinyurl.com/hwedl
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 08:49 AM   #62
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I'm watching the real estate on the waterfront(bayfront) here in South Jersey.
It seems as if almost everbody has their homes for sale. The prices, for some of these bay shacks, are unbelievable. They are still moving them, but slowly.
I don't think we are going to see a price drop on prime(waterfront) real estate
here, or South Florida. Most are looking for second homes, and willing to pay
up for the view..
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 10:32 AM   #63
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I agree with most here that the question is "when" rather than "if" the bubble will deflate. BUT I see this as a great opportunity. The best buys I made were made between 1992-1995. So save your pennys and wait with a smile.

Everything is cyclical.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 11:01 AM   #64
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Global Insight (a research firm paid to provide data to support preconceived opinions) says there's a widespread bubble, except in a few choice areas like College Station-Bryan (wherever the heck in Texas thatis, Houston, and Dallas-Fort Worth. In fact eight of the ten cheapest areas are in Texas...

http://globalinsight.com/gcpath/1Q2006report.pdf

Please don't mistake my link as a serious research study. Global includes factors like "Finally, we calculate a 'constant' term for each metropolitan area. These control for historically observed differences in metro area price-to income ratios that is not explained by the other three determinants. The numbers range from -3.1 to +3.2 and reflect a variety of difficult to quantify, but nonetheless important, factors that influence prices. Such factors that influence metro area constants would include pollution, climate, expected property price appreciation, cultural amenities, school systems, miscellaneous costs, (e.g. tax and utility rates) and geographic location."

However this study is being picked up by the wire services and will be widely quoted in the media... so it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 11:20 AM   #65
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Cool. Lets all move to texas!!
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 12:07 PM   #66
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Interestingly, price appreciation continues to be strongest among more over-valued markets.

Yup, that's momentum "investing" -- a sure sign of speculation. We should see the same momentum on the way down.

These reports and articles are kind of interesting, but I prefer watching this thing unfold in real-time on the blogosphere.

For example, this site tracks inventory and price reductions:

Bubble Tracking

Here are the top 5 markets leading the correction based on percentage of price reductions:

Sacramento Metro:
1/30: 30.5%---> 6/13: 39.7%

Phoenix Metro:
1/30: 28.0%---> 6/13: 39.0%

Orange County:
1/30: 22.8%---> 6/13: 37.0%

Riverside County:
1/30: 27.3%---> 6/13: 36.5%

San Diego County:
1/30: 26.3%---> 6/13: 35.3%
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 12:16 PM   #67
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
... College Station-Bryan (wherever the heck in Texas thatis,* ...
College Station is about 100 miles north-west of Houston.* Home to the Texas A&M University, and former George Bush Library.* Thanks for the Global Insight report.

Sam
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 03:29 PM   #68
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

sorry, but simply hoping for something real real hard doesn't make it true. The best time to buy is often when everyone is saying not to. When the mailman, waitress and blogosphere are all talking about a housing bubble, I know there isn't one. Bubble Schmubble....
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 03:44 PM   #69
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Wab, the Phoenix data looks scary, with inventory at amazing levels and sales lower than last year. Our condo units are still selling steady and still putting $6000 to $8000 in our pocket each month. What would be a nightmare is for a sudden slow down so that some units are condo and some stuck as apartments. Bad juju.

On the upside, the buildings were bought as apartments so a condo conversion was not priced into its purchase price. For one building we already have been paid our investment plus about 10%. The other is a more recent conversion so we still have money into it.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 05:20 PM   #70
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Martha
Wab, the Phoenix data looks scary, with inventory at amazing levels and sales lower than last year.
I think now is a good time to sell, and it looks like a lot of other sellers feel the same way. That's why inventory is growing so fast. YoY demand doesn't look like it has slackened much.

These things rarely happen quickly. I've read that Japan had a 15-20% drop about 18-24 months after their peak, so assuming we peaked last year, this is the time to sell.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-14-2006, 10:56 PM   #71
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex
sorry,* but simply hoping for something real real hard doesn't make it true.* The best time to buy is often when everyone is saying not to. When the mailman, waitress and blogosphere are all talking about a housing bubble, I know there isn't one. Bubble Schmubble....
Alex- I think you were right the first time. When you yourself chopped 30% off your own equity position! Good luck in Southern CAl. Hope it is not San D iego !
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-15-2006, 10:51 AM   #72
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by blanston
Alex- I think you were right the first time. When you yourself chopped 30% off your own equity position! Good luck in Southern CAl. Hope it is not San D iego !
In my case, I really don't see a bubble. I believe that all real estate is "LOCAL". I live in northern LA county in a highly desireable area with excellent schools and low crime rates. I am 35 minutes to downtown even in rush hour traffic. I am not worried. Bubble? Schmubble!
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-15-2006, 11:10 AM   #73
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

PIMCO Manager is now a renter

PIMCO is based out of Newport Beach, CA. The guy probably made a small fortune selling his house.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-15-2006, 04:59 PM   #74
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I hope he signed a multi-year lease.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-15-2006, 06:01 PM   #75
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
"Amy wasn’t thrilled about moving, but my sense is she will look back on our sale and view it as a good one. In the end, the fundamentals should win out. "

My sense, honed from some experience with women, is that Amy with the help of the courts will have Mark cash her out. She will look back on Mark, and view him as good any vehicle to get where she wanted to go, but she henceforth will prefer going without ol' Markie.

Ha

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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-15-2006, 07:12 PM   #76
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

A few quick facts from today's paper re San Diego housing market:

- median price in May of all new and existing homes was 490k, up only 0.4% from May 2005 and down 3% from April

- May's median of 490k down 5% from SD County's record level of 518k set in November 2005

- May's sales were fewest of any May in 10 years

- New-home median price fell 4.5% this May compared to last May
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-15-2006, 09:33 PM   #77
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
"Amy wasn’t thrilled about moving, but my sense is she will look back on our sale and view it as a good one. In the end, the fundamentals should win out. "

My sense, honed from some experience with women, is that Amy with the help of the courts will have Mark cash her out. She will look back on Mark, and view him as good any vehicle to get where she wanted to go, but she henceforth will prefer going without ol' Markie.
Yeah - I caught that "Amy wasn't thrilled...." bit too.* I bet Amy's thinking "WHAT!!! He expects me to live in an APARTMENT! - What kind of life is this!* I want my nice beautiful house back!!!!"

Hmmmm - seems you better be careful about lifestyle changes (which are the true "fundamentals") when it comes to your spouse.* Not all life decisions are simple financial trades.......

Audrey
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-16-2006, 07:13 AM   #78
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I live in South Florida. A year and a half ago, when a for sale sign went up, the house sold in a matter of weeks. I now see for sale signs that have been up for months, and the number that I see are increasing.

I have 3 friends who are realtors. They all tell me that nothing is selling. In addition, the Fed will probably keep raising rates.

Draw your own conclusions.
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-16-2006, 10:29 AM   #79
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I live in VA, just outside of DC. My townhouse development right now has about 10 units for sale (out of 100), and they are not selling very fast. And the prices being asked for are down about 5-8% from this time last year.

Glad I plan to stay put for awhile!

Karen
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-16-2006, 11:18 AM   #80
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Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

i think south florida now has about an 11-month inventory and i suspect we're a bit spoiled. for the last few years in my area, houses sold before signs went up. now the sign sticks in the ground for a while. sometimes because the owner is advertising their hopeful future price instead of their realistic current one.

i walk through town most evenings. i do not notice many more signs on single family houses here but the ones i see have been there for a while. of those, i notice some belong to long-time residents. there are two residential lots on my block for sale which belong to a church and have not been offered for sale likely in the last 30 years. so i do not get a sense of panic selling.

catty-corner to my area is a redeveloped section which 5 years ago was mostly hud housing at best. now it is mostly new townhouses selling at about $400k & up with some converted 1/1 condos at the $250k level. here i see a barrage of real estate signs. usually at least one outside most buildings. some buildings have a collage of up to 5 signs.

so my sense from observation matches what i've been reading. single family is still, for now, pretty stable. but condos might tank some in the near future.
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