Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 01:55 PM   #101
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
When I die I want my spouse to bury my cremated remains right here in our compost pile, where my true fertilizing benefits can finally be spread far & wide!
Funny.* In Vietnam, death people are usually buried within the family property.* I wonder if I can do it here in Texas.* I guess that would bring my property value down pretty quick, not to mention that of the whole neighborhood.* I can smell the lawsuits now.

Sam
__________________

__________________
Sam is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 01:58 PM   #102
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Jay_Gatsby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,719
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
When I die I want my spouse to bury my cremated remains right here in our compost pile, where my true fertilizing benefits can finally be spread far & wide!
But you do already spread fertilizer far and wide....on this board no less.
__________________

__________________
He had one of those rare smiles with a quality of eternal reassurance in it . . . It faced, or seemed to face, the whole external world for an instant and then concentrated on you with an irresistible prejudice in your favor. -- The Great Gatsby, F. Scott Fitzgerald
Jay_Gatsby is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 02:07 PM   #103
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,617
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
I wonder if I can do it here in Texas. I guess that would bring my property value down pretty quick, not to mention that of the whole neighborhood. I can smell the lawsuits now.
There are some things that just don't belong on any seller's disclosure statements. I don't get it... we've seen houses with fine graveyard collections of well-loved pets and somehow that's considered cute, but a few rotting human remains really mess up your sale negotiations.

Besides, a good deep backhoe excavation, a couple layers of lime, and a good drainage field can overcome any ground-penetrating radar.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay_Gatsby
But you do already spread fertilizer far and wide....on this board no less.*
That's why spouse agreed so readily to my plans... for some reason she thinks she'll be outliving me anyway!
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 02:08 PM   #104
Recycles dryer sheets
IBWino's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 423
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay_Gatsby
But you do already spread fertilizer far and wide....on this board no less.*
He did say "true fertilizing benefits".
__________________
IBWino is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 03:23 PM   #105
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

You're seeing a rush of people putting their house up for sale before the "good prices" go away. Including a lot of unsaleable crap and whatnot. Hence increasing inventory without a drop in asking prices.

Similarly, I see the cnbc talking heads all happy about the new home starts being high this month after dropping off the last few months. I've noticed it up the street from me where several subdivisions are being built. A bunch of foundations got poured and they're trying to slap the homes together and get them up for sale before the bottom drops out. After all the foundations got poured last month, no new ones at all. The 25 or so acres of weeds they nuked a few months ago to build on has been allowed to go back to weeds. One high end developer (meritage) bought a huge tract near my house...I'm going to say about 50-60 acres. The property owner plowed all his peach trees under and made a very impressive heap of wood chips out of them. Then meritage backed out of the deal, paid the guy for his trees and his trouble, and walked away

Wab showed a chart last week that said my region had the frothiest real estate; i'm on the outskirts of the froth where its really stupid as theres nothing to support the ridiculous prices. This might be the miners canary...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 03:46 PM   #106
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
lazygood4nothinbum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
This doesn't sound right.* How can price goes up (albeit by a small %) when inventory has tripled?* Playing with numbers to downplay the severity?

Sam
the rules are different here. it only seems like prices went up if you didn't get a 35% increase last year.

inventory sounds like a lot but we also have population growth of about 30,000 per year expected to continue over the next 30 years in a county that is already at build-out. we are bound by the atlantic to the east and the everglades to the west. to both north and south are counties which are also experiencing an influx of another 30,000 people per county per year.

so our high inventory, while currently at an 11-month supply and likely growing, is still not enough yet to restrict either price increases or construction output. construction on residential units in broward county is up about 70% 2006 from 2005. though numbers in counties on either side of us went down & i would imagine that ours will decrease this year.

buffeting our bubble likely is the investment we still get from europe and central and south america. besides that, while we seemed to exhibit exorbitant rises in value lately, likely fort lauderdale was undervalued for many years. even now we are only half that of san francisco and where's their beach in winter?
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin

"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
lazygood4nothinbum is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 03:49 PM   #107
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
the rules are different here...

...we are bound by the atlantic to the east and the everglades to the west...
I thought it was de River Nile to the west.

"The rules are different this time."
__________________
justin is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 03:54 PM   #108
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
lazygood4nothinbum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

no, it's the river of grass. http://tinyurl.com/fryv7
Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
The stats are also year-over-year increases. If the "peak" of the bubble was in November 2005, then you won't see the decreases in year over year prices till ~ november 2006.
according to the article i quoted the peak was may where we went up 4% 2006 from 2005. i thought i remembered things were still pretty nutz down here though at least until the canes started hitting and then lots of contracts went on hold.

that would be like august/sept so i'll be more interested in seeing those year to year figures before i'm comfortable settling in on the banks on the river denial. in the meanwhile i'll just break out the suntan lotion and my shades.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin

"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
lazygood4nothinbum is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 04:03 PM   #109
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum
we also have population growth of about 30,000 per year expected to continue over the next 30 years in a county that is already at build-out. we are bound by the atlantic to the east and the everglades to the west. to both north and south are counties which are also experiencing an influx of another 30,000 people per county per year.
30,000/year per county sounds like a lot.* What is it in terms of county population percentage?

What attracts people to that area?* The Atlantic and the Everglades?

Thanks,
Sam
__________________
Sam is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 04:12 PM   #110
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
lazygood4nothinbum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam
30,000/year per county sounds like a lot.* What is it in terms of county population percentage?
Quote:

ya, tell me about it. it's insane. i absolutely can't tell month to month how long it takes to drive somewhere. i'm still driving on 1970s time and so i am always late. even here we are now having discussions of water supply problems.

here's a 2002 county study showing a 1.9% annual growth rate expected through 2030. http://tinyurl.com/hgeu4

just skimmed 1st page. looks like an updated version shows us slowing down after 2015 so we only go from 1.6 million in 2000 to 2.3 million by 2030. i have no idea where all those people are going to park.

as to what attracts, yes & yes and add some icw action...
Attached Images
File Type: jpg pier 66.jpg (34.4 KB, 172 views)
Attached Files
File Type: jpg_thumb pier 66.jpg_thumb (30.8 KB, 0 views)
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin

"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
lazygood4nothinbum is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 04:26 PM   #111
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Those population growth forecasts probably don't include feedback for ridiculously unaffordable housing prices. Who's gonna live there if they can't afford it?

One of the big problems surrounding long range forecasting of land use planning/population/employment growth is the feedback loop between each of those factors and other infrastructure constraints - education, transportation, water, sewer, etc. No one really has a good model to incorporate all of these factors with any degree of reliability. Throw on future economic and political uncertainties and good luck getting anything meaningful out of a model.
__________________
justin is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 06-20-2006, 04:29 PM   #112
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
lazygood4nothinbum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

well, of course that's correct. the only true way to determine population growth is to watch my weaving on i-95 as i try to arrive on time, yet not dead.

while we don't wanna see our values fall, frankly we'd be happier not with prices rising, but with population leveling. but going just on the last few years, even with rising prices, it's not looking good for anyone suffering demophobia.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin

"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
lazygood4nothinbum is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-14-2006, 02:21 PM   #113
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

I figured it was time to update this thread.* *I've been watching reports of the housing bubble collapse nation-wide for a while now, but some of the best information is coming directly from the home builders.* * This latest earnings forecast from DR Horton even caught the bears off-guard:

Some analysts following the industry were caught off guard by the magnitude of D.R. Horton's profit warning.

"To say our initial reaction was surprise" would "heavily underestimate the impact; we were shocked," wrote Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Stephen East in a research note.

"Cancellations have taken a mighty toll on D.R. Horton's ability to deliver on its forecast, which has reduced its revenue and pressured margins as incentives have jumped substantially," he said. The shares should "get hit hard" on Friday, he added.

"Even this housing bear is stunned," said A.G. Edwards analyst Gregory Gieber in a note Friday. "This is an industry epidemic, and we believe others could get hit worse."


Article

Obviously, new home sales compete with resales, so watch the builders in your area for a leading indicator of market action.
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-14-2006, 02:36 PM   #114
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 473
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Hm, so we are past the "market is leveling off" stage and the "soft landing" stage, fast approaching the "oh, this is going to be painful" stage. At this rate we should be hitting the "sky is falling" stage by the end of the year
__________________
Scrooge is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-14-2006, 02:45 PM   #115
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Increasing inventory and flat prices as sellers list their homes in denial of a soft market.* * And then capitulation.

It's like watching a road-runner cartoon.* *This is the part where Wile E. Coyote has just run off the end of a cliff, hovers in mid-air for a second, and then looks down and says "yikes!"
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-14-2006, 02:56 PM   #116
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,094
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Things are a little different down here in Northern Mexico:

S.A. housing market is hot as the weather

Craig and Kelly Collins put their Medical Center-area home up for sale on a Friday afternoon in June. Two hours later, it sold for $1,200 over the asking price of $139,900.

"We had to go get ice cream to celebrate," said Craig, who with a 2-year-old and two dogs initially had dreaded the home-showing process. "To tell you the truth I thought it was a little crazy." Crazy, but increasingly common.

San Antonio's housing market is on pace to break sales records and reach all-time price highs in 2006. In neighborhoods across the city, well-maintained homes are going off the market within hours or days.

The median sales price over the first six months of the year reached $139,400, an 8.6 percent increase over last year,...

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-14-2006, 03:11 PM   #117
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,384
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
Things are a little different down here in Northern Mexico:

S.A. housing market is hot as the weather

Craig and Kelly Collins put their Medical Center-area home up for sale on a Friday afternoon in June. Two hours later, it sold for $1,200 over the asking price of $139,900.

"We had to go get ice cream to celebrate," said Craig, who with a 2-year-old and two dogs initially had dreaded the home-showing process. "To tell you the truth I thought it was a little crazy."* Crazy, but increasingly common.

San Antonio's housing market is on pace to break sales records and reach all-time price highs in 2006.* In neighborhoods across the city, well-maintained homes are going off the market within hours or days.

The median sales price over the first six months of the year reached $139,400, an 8.6 percent increase over last year,...

Of course, Wahoo, but then your houses sell for the price of a one car garage up North.*

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-14-2006, 03:16 PM   #118
Recycles dryer sheets
IBWino's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 423
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
Of course, Wahoo, but then your houses sell for the price of a one car garage up North.*

Ha

Yeah, here in the SF North Bay, 30 year old track homes are still going for $500K to $600K, although inventory is up quite a bit from last year.
__________________
IBWino is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-14-2006, 03:25 PM   #119
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,094
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
Of course, Wahoo, but then your houses sell for the price of a one car garage up North.
Yep. What the article doesn't say is how many people from up North (and back East and out West) are selling those one car garages and moving to or buying investment property in this part of the world. That is definitely impacting RE prices here, along with some really good growth in the employment picture.

I'm just happy everyone in the family already owns a house and isn't trying to buy into this price headwind.

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble
Old 07-14-2006, 04:41 PM   #120
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,375
Re: Sizing the Housing Bubble

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
along with some really good growth in the employment picture.*


ReWahoo: That's it. I can't take the pressure anymore. If you are bound and determined to work for wages again, so be it.

I recently lost a good fly-fishing partner (my cousin), who is about your age, and also a former AF pilot, to a job as a central valley crop duster.

"Hold this beer, Bubba, and I'll show you how to fly under those transmission lines."

There are, I'm sure, worse things than working for "wages" again, but please, be discreet.

Jarhead, who, as of now has officially resigned from the ReWahoo employment "watch".

(Can't take the stress anymore).



__________________

__________________
Jarhead* is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
How to take advantage of a housing bubble? Sam FIRE and Money 8 03-29-2007 12:21 PM
Psychology of the Housing Bubble (and its collapse) justin Other topics 132 01-26-2007 02:33 PM
What Real Estate Bubble? Art FIRE and Money 76 11-09-2006 03:33 PM
Housing bubble bursts....in Shangai camberiu FIRE and Money 5 01-19-2006 02:12 AM
Bad tax law funding the housing bubble? laurence FIRE and Money 12 08-02-2005 07:48 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:42 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.