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So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-20-2004, 06:19 PM   #1
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So are ya doing anything?

Greenspans uttering and the markets are sputtering.

On the other hand, the guy was trying to talk people into ARMs not that long ago, so I'm leery of anything he comes up with.

I was pretty sure we wouldnt see a rate rise of any significance in '04...maybe 25 basis points. But now i'm not sure.

So besides chuck eyeballing REITS, anyone making any moves?

I just moved 200k from intermediate bonds to short term corp. I'd like to sidestep a piece of the beating.
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-20-2004, 06:37 PM   #2
 
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

Quote:
So besides chuck eyeballing REITS, anyone making any moves?
Gee, I thought (not really it's just what everybody SAYS all the time) that the market knows all and sees all.. It is always rational and forcasts the future and discounts everything. So, why was today's interest rate yabba-gawddamned-jabba of any significance? Shouldn't it have already been "priced in" to the market?

For right now I am just holding tight. Rates have some room to rise and still be a comfortable zone. AFTER people get their panicky heads out, anyway. I own quite a bit of bond funds and I know how they react vis a vis rate moves and am fully prepared to take the few percentage points hit. It's not like Greenie is gonna raise rates 5%'age points first thing Monday morning.

I DO have my eyes peeled or maybe my guts peeled for a possible sell-out sometime this summer not due to interest rates but due to terrorist shenanigans.
I figure through the summer the upside potential isn't likely to be that much anyway if you follow trends, and the downside potential could be quite a bit. But that is only in the realm of "thinkable" at this point.


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Re:  Shorted Janus (JNS) last month.
Old 04-20-2004, 07:05 PM   #3
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Re:  Shorted Janus (JNS) last month.

It wasn't hard to predict after studying the financials & news over the last year, but it was quite gratifying to boot up this morning and wave goodbye to Mark Whiston, to the tune of another 2% drop in the stock.

Think I'll put in a sell stop and go longboard shopping...
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-20-2004, 07:21 PM   #4
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

I'm watching long term TIPS. They're inching up (over 2.3% now).
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-20-2004, 08:29 PM   #5
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

New guy here. But I kind of have been developing the idea that the intention is to establish your portfolio and then make adjustments to your asset allocations in a somewhat patterned manner rather than sudden reactions to the markets. I'm still digesting my latest Bernstein book.

I am still taking account of things and reorganizing my investments to some of the philosophies I am trying learn about, but am weighted pretty heavily into intermediate term bond funds. I've made a few relatively large dis-investments of these funds this week. Some of this is in reaction to the news, and some is just a part of my reorganization. It looked like good timing to me, but I'm wondering more and more if the timing philosophy is somewhat of a delusion once you've organizined you portfolio?

I'm thinking of parking at least some of this money until the election is approaching, but wonder what opportunities I'll be missing.
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-21-2004, 12:43 PM   #6
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

Quote:
I'm watching long term TIPS. They're inching up (over 2.3% now).
Yeah, I couldn't resist. *I took a little bite at 2.31% today. *Given that the long-term real return of treasuries has been about 2.5%, I figure 20 bps is worth it for the inflation adjustment premium.

Edited to add that Vanguard has better spreads than Waterhouse even though they outsource bond trading to the same company. That 2.31% would have been 2.36% had I gone through Vanguard.
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-21-2004, 04:38 PM   #7
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

I net sold about 40 K in stocks/U.S. Mutuals, and another 20 K in Bonds (mainly a high yield fund). Added my first gold stock ever (Newmont Mining). TIPS are becoming more attractive & I may add if they continue to come in. I've added modestly to REITS, albeit early (a bit of a fallen knife in my belly), & I have also added to my coal/oil exposure. I have no idea whether this will pan out, but it felt good making these moves. My trigger finger is still mega itchy.....the bear case is making a bit of sense to me...for the first time in quite some time.
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-22-2004, 06:30 AM   #8
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

Generally a whole lot of nothing - balanced index takes care of itself.

In hobby stock land - at the edges(1-2% of portfolio) may take a fling with some wildly speculative stocks. Plan to add to my Union Pacific and DOW drips. And I'm scratching my head trying to understand why Dodge and Cox has AT&T as their biggest holding. The 5% or so yield is tempting but the drip plan fees stink.
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-22-2004, 10:11 AM   #9
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

Quote:
I'm watching long term TIPS. They're inching up (over 2.3% now).
Could you tell me how I can buy long term TIPS at 2.3%?

Thanks
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-22-2004, 10:35 AM   #10
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

amt, you can buy them on the secondary market through a brokerage account (I use Vanguard). The maturities are 2028 - 2032.
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-22-2004, 04:51 PM   #11
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

I don't think I've done anything in reaction to the market, but I may be wrong.

I did move some money into a money market fund about 6 months ago, but that was because my job was in danger and I wanted to know for certain the money was there if I needed to tap it because my plan was to pick up an move back to familiar territory immediately after losing the job.

Before that I was nearly 100% in stock funds, but just recently I decided that my job is not immediately threatened, but instead of moving the money back to stock funds I put it and more into Vanguard's total bond market index fund so I'm about 80/20 stocks/bonds now. But I don't plan to go back to 100% stock funds no matter what the market does in the future, so I think this change in allocation is permanent and not market-based, although the sobering of 2000-2003 probably contributed to my becomming more conservative.

I decided a ways back I won't try to time the market, but instead move money when it suited my personal needs. I've babbled a bit in other posts about how my long-term personal outlook is changing lately, and that's the main motivator for this move. Besides, I hear stocks are overpriced, it's a bad time to buy bonds and real estate is overvalued, so I don't have much choice. I'm not interested in metals, international stocks or the other stuff for now, and I don't want my money out of the market as cash, either.

In fact, I was considering going to 60/40 stocks/bonds but vetoed myself because it was too drastic a change and I was afraid the current market situation was affecting my thinking. In a few months my savings will jump up to 30% to 40% of gross income, and I'll gradually rebalance through contributions not transfers.
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-22-2004, 08:06 PM   #12
 
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

Yes, I am doing something! - I'm fishing!

I actually read Bernstein's 'Four Pillars' Book and am putting it into action. I no longer worry about Greenspan, interest rates, Stock Market Moves etc. etc. etc.

I'm living.
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-23-2004, 04:06 AM   #13
 
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

I'm with Cut-throat. Just fishing and killing time until
cocktail hour. Of course, having no stocks means none of my time is required considering what do there.

Life is short! Live it up! (Nikita Kruschev)

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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-23-2004, 11:02 AM   #14
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

For those of us with some cash to put to work, long term TIPS are available right now with an offer yield of 2.455%.
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-23-2004, 11:55 AM   #15
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

An interesting blurb from Bloomberg today:

The Treasury today said it wants to reduce sales of long- term debt and instead sell more inflation-protected securities, and will ask primary dealer firms for advice on how to accomplish the goal.

This could massively increase the TIPS supply, and means we can expect TIPS yields to go up.
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-23-2004, 05:41 PM   #16
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

In case you missed it, Vanguard's TIPS fund fell
about 1% today. It is now 5.5% below the peak
on 3/17/04.

Cheers,

Charlie (aka Chuck-Lyn)
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-24-2004, 07:04 AM   #17
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

Cutthroat:
Thanks for the picture.
Sounds like as good a fishing day as anybody has ever had.
Was that section catch and release with barbless hooks?
I believe you said that you were staying with a friend that is a fly fisherman. (Helps, huh).
I always found that I did much better on the 2nd. or third day. (There is usually a lot of dead water to be eliminated). I have reached the point in my life where I will not even attempt to fish an area that I, or a fishing partner have not fished before.
Appears that the only tip you were concerned with was the rod_tip.
Congratulations on a fantastic day. (You will undoubtedly have many others, but I believe you will be able to use this as a bench mark.)
If your goal in posting this picture was to make me green with envy, mission accomplshed.
Trying to explain the joy of fly fishing is next to impossible, but we both understand 8)
Hope you will report back on details of next day, etc.
Regards, Jarhead

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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-24-2004, 04:49 PM   #18
 
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

Man Cut-throat, thanks for sharing. I too am
envious. However, I have never really gotten into
catch and release. I tend toward the Ted Nugent school
of thought vis-a-vis hunting and fishing; "Kill it and grill it!" I no longer hunt, but still eat 90% of the fish that I catch.

John Galt
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-25-2004, 07:29 AM   #19
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

Cutthroat:
If you really want to live there, I"ve got a possible solution for you.
All you would have to do is sell 250 limited partnership shares at $40,000 a share. (That would handle the low end house at $10,000,000.00)
As the general partner, it would be your responsibility to live there, and keep the property in good repair.
House to be sold in 15 years.
Your investors would probably do as good as any other investment, and at the end of 15 years you would be a fly fishing legend in those parts.
Of course, if all 250 of them showed up at the same time to do a little fishing, you would have to put all your
powers of creativity to work 8)
Regards, Jarhead
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Re: So are ya doing anything?
Old 04-26-2004, 06:17 AM   #20
 
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Re: So are ya doing anything?

You know, Cut-throat's big day trout fishing got me thinking about my personal "bests".
Sometimes it is hard to come up with any one event
in the various venues. Still, it's a pleasant exercise,
i.e. best trip, best fishing, best investment, best car,
best sex etc. Most of my obvious personal bests
lie in the areas of fun stuff I've done as opposed to financial/business events.
Not sure if this is because or in spite of 30 years
of compulsive workaholism.

John Galt
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