So How Are You Doing in 2005?

[rsboone]

Everyone is celebrating their gains for 2004 - how about 2005 -- I'm down 4% - quickly giving back my 2004 gains- what is wrong with the market - almost every asset class is down

 

[Cut-Throat]

My Net worth is up .027% so far

 

[BigMoneyJim]

My YTD investment performance is -2.37% which annualizes to about -57%. Yikes, I need to start hoarding ammunition and gold!

My net worth is down the difference between retail cost and current market value of my 46" HDTV and a DVD/tuner combo.

 

[retire@40]

My net worth (excluding home) is up $2K from January 1 even though my ROI is down 2%

 

[Spanky]

I am avoiding to update my portfolio, knowing that it is down at least by 2.5%. REIT and internatinals are poor performers.

SPanky

 

[John Galt]

2005? We are only 2 weeks into it. Anyone in equities
must necessarily take a long term view of things.
In my case, I only have to cash my interest checks while I ignore the DJIA and NASDAQ.

JG

 

[haha]

I'm down 0.41%. This is just investment returns, not net worth changes.

I know that most of you have heard of the January effect.
I have heard this term applied to 2 different phenomena. One, the tendency for small caps to out perform large caps for the last couple weeks of December, until some time in mid to late January.

The other usage is the January Predictor- as January goes, so goes the year. We have 2 weeks and 2 days for left for January trading. So it is premature to generalize from here. However, should January continue to be weak, asset allocator and Batterymarch Financial founder Jeremy Grantham describes a less well known tendency for the January predictor to be more solid in the first year of the 4 year presidential cycle. Thius, if January is down in 2005, history says the whole of 2005 should be weak.

Another interesting observation regarding the first year of the election cycle is that there is a much larger likelihood of a weak year 1 if equity markets are statistically overvalued than if they are undervalued or fairly valued on January 1st.

This may sound likea big "Duh!", until you remember that normally valuation has no effect at all on 1 year returns. That is does under a year 1 condition I find interesting.

There aren't enough instances to place a lot of credence in these things, particularly once you start slicing and dicing and refining the condition. Still, it does make sense, and it has been found in the past. It is suggestive enough to me that I have sold all but a tiny % of my US stocks in retirement accounts. The only block to selling stocks outside my retirement accounts is taxes.

Mikey

 

[Martha]

It is suggestive enough to me that I have sold all but a tiny % of my US stocks in retirement accounts. The only block to selling stocks outside my retirement accounts is taxes.

Mikey

So what do you end up doing with the money?

 

[haha]

So what do you end up doing with the money?  

Hi Martha,

I am making a ladder of 13 and 26 week treasury bills. I could get a little more with a CD, and I may soon, but for now just that.

This is the first time in 30 years of investing that I don't have a large % in stocks. I'll sooner or later find out if I was right to do this. One thing I won't do is buy stocks back at this or higher levels-I'll continue to wait.

I have enough faith in human nature to feel confident that markets will eventually come to me.

Mikey

 

[Spanky]

I finally had the courage to update my portfolio which is down by 1.91%. The worst returns are REIT and small cap value.

 

[REWahoo]

... I'm down 4% - quickly giving back my 2004 gains- what is wrong with the market...

Nothing is "wrong" with the market. If you are going to fret over the fluctuation in equity values, you might want to find a spouse to support you, put all your assets in CD's, bonds and real estate, and change your name to John Gault, Jr.
REW

 

[Spanky]

I am not sure if real estate is the way to protect assets since the interest rate is on the rise.

 

[REWahoo]

I am not sure if real estate is the way to protect assets since the interest rate is on the rise.

I don't disagree. My point (and attempt at a little humor) was to suggest to rsboone that if he(?) thinks there is something "wrong" with the market because it declined in the first two weeks of 2005, perhaps he should follow in the footsteps of JG. (No stocks, and proud of it...and not shy about repeatedly telling us so.)
REW

 

[brewer12345]

Well, my daughter is growing and changing rapidly, as is typical at 7 months old. My wife tells me every third day how happy she is staying home with our daughter and running her side business, especially compared to when she was working full time for the man. I have already planned a 10 day vacation for April. I am in the process of setting up a 75 gallon planted freshwater tank (with pictures to come when it is at least presentable). Work sucks, but I vest in about $40k of retirement and bonus money in March (the "tinfoil handcuffs"), and after that I will be a "free agent" as they say in the NFL (no salary cap issues any more either, if you get my drift).

Investments? Who cares. Its a two week period for a portfolio I won't be tapping for roughly 15 years.