So many calculators, so little time

Live And Learn

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I've used FIRECalc, Vanguards Portfolio Longevity calculator, Fidelity Retirement Income Planner, and T Rowe Price Retirement Income Calculator.

FIRECalc and Fidelity both give me results I like very much ! 90% or better confidence level of my portfolio lasting 35 years (75% of it lasting to 45 years).

Vanguard is more conservative - 80% chance of my portfolio lasting 30 years.

The T Rowe Price calculator is downright depressing, 80% chance of my porfolio lasting 26 years and 40% chance of my portfolio lasting 40 years.


I understand that these calculators are just "tools" but how do you know if you've reached FI with such varying results ?
 
I'm no expert, but I figure if I can live off the lowest potential return without touching principal, then I'm set. I'm using 2% - 3% in my current calculations. The day will probably come that I have to dig into principal. Perhaps not, if I'm fortunate [or my son is lol]. If I'm REALLY lucky, the principal may increase.

That's just my comfort level. FIRECalc gave me a %100. Haven't tried the others yet.
 
Calc differences prob have to do with assumptions (e.g. inflation, etc.). I haven't compared calc's exactly, but small differences get magnified a lot projected over 40yrs and range of uncertainty widens a lot. Uncertainty makes it hard to bet your future on one roll of the dice ;)
 
I understand that these calculators are just "tools" but how do you know if you've reached FI with such varying results ?

Wait 30 years, look back and then you'll know for sure.

Otherwise you have to take your best educated guess. If you knew when you'll die, what returns and actual expenses will be then it would be academic.

You could save up enough to live off returns alone, but then you'll work a lot longer. Perhaps the best bet is not to burn bridges when one retires, just in case.
 
I have run no other calculators than FIRECalc, and this only for a few times. There is no point in agonizing too much over it. I have been trying to lower my expenses so I can live on 3.5%, and if I happen to have more money than projected, it is a nice problem to have and I will deal with that later.

On the other side of the coin, if things get bleak, I will do like Uncle Mick: stay mobile and hostile (can I talk RV now?). Heh heh heh...
 
The takeaway from all this then is...

Don't plan your retirement to the 3rd decimal point.

Have some cushion in your plan

Be flexible in your spending.
 
Interesting question. My favorite online tool is this one, maybe because the results I get are closest to the results of my own home-made spreadsheet : Merrill Edge| See Where You Stand
Wowza. It told me my portfolio would support a 4.3% WR even with "Poor Market Performance" and 4.8% WR with "Average Market Performance." At 57 yo, that seems way aggressive to me. I see that it's a Monte Carlo type calculator, I like to see actual historical (like FIRECALC) too. YMMV
 
Wowza. It told me my portfolio would support a 4.3% WR even with "Poor Market Performance" and 4.8% WR with "Average Market Performance." At 57 yo, that seems way aggressive to me. I see that it's a Monte Carlo type calculator, I like to see actual historical (like FIRECALC) too. YMMV
+1

That Merrill calculator scares the cr*p out of me.
 
Interesting question. My favorite online tool is this one, maybe because the results I get are closest to the results of my own home-made spreadsheet : Merrill Edge| See Where You Stand

That calculator was way too inflexible for me. One problem is that it requires that you and your partner retire in the same year. The other is that it assumes taking SS at 67. Also you couldn't plug in variable expenses for particular years.
 
I understand that these calculators are just "tools" but how do you know if you've reached FI with such varying results ?

1. Understand exactly what question the calculator is answering. In FireCalc's case, there is no prediction of future results whatsoever. FireCalc answers the question "Given a level of retirement income (SS, pensions, etc) and portfolio value and AA, plus inflation levels and withdrawal rates, how often would I have run out of money during a withdrawal period historically?" Other calculators are answering somewhat different questions. It's up to you to decide which "test" gives you the best information for your case.

2. Become comfortable with the fact that there will not only be significant variation from test to test (from FireCalc to Merrill to TRP to etc.) but there will also be significant variation within one particular test. In my own FireCalc run, results say that historically my scenario would have been 100% successful. I would never have run out of money. However, at the end of 30 years I may be close to broke or have much more than I started with depending on how things go.

I'm comfortable with variation. Lots of statistical analysis work in my professional background. The fact that my ending portfolio could have me going to the grave near broke or fabulously wealthy makes sense to me given the wide range of economic factors our economy has experienced historically and which I fully expect to continue into the future.

If you're looking for a calculator you can use as a black box and simply feed inputs into and get accurate predictions of how your scenario will work out over the next few decades, you're looking for something that doesn't exist. Accept variability. Get used to it.
 
Interesting question. My favorite online tool is this one, maybe because the results I get are closest to the results of my own home-made spreadsheet : Merrill Edge| See Where You Stand

Not as positive for me as some others in this thread, but it did say my savings should last between the ages of 85 and 90 excluding SS. If I allow it to assume SS then I could have retired last year

My homegrown spreadsheet gets me to full portfolio depletion at 82.
 
My homegrown spreadsheet gets me to full portfolio depletion at 82.
In that case, if your spreadsheet is well designed and does not have computational flaws, do not retire unless you can count on large SS or other pension that your spreadhseet does not account for.

I basically am not able to believe that any significant number of retirees will be able to happily watch their portfolios deplete as they themselves age; or that they will be able to calmly accept huge drawdowns after the option of returning to work is clearly closed. The next time you pass a homeless man or woman ask yourself if you would be able to pass this person without feeling personal terror if you were 78 and your spouse is sick and you are down to your last $150,000.

Ha
 
I've used FIRECalc, Vanguards Portfolio Longevity calculator, Fidelity Retirement Income Planner, and T Rowe Price Retirement Income Calculator.

FIRECalc and Fidelity both give me results I like very much ! 90% or better confidence level of my portfolio lasting 35 years (75% of it lasting to 45 years).

Vanguard is more conservative - 80% chance of my portfolio lasting 30 years.

The T Rowe Price calculator is downright depressing, 80% chance of my porfolio lasting 26 years and 40% chance of my portfolio lasting 40 years.


I understand that these calculators are just "tools" but how do you know if you've reached FI with such varying results ?

If you're a VG customer you should be able to use Financial Engines (just another calculator to try :))
 
If you're a VG customer you should be able to use Financial Engines (just another calculator to try :))
I second Alan's suggestion.

Just be aware that FE (offered by VG) will not give you a "plan end date", by age.

It uses internal tables of average lifespans in its calculation and will only tell you if your spending target will survive, as long as you do :cool: ...

Also be aware (as shown on the link Alan provided) that it is not designed to be used by a retiree. There is a way to "fool it" (change your birth and retirement dates) to get it to run, but it is less than a satisfactory solution, IMHO.
 
I've used FIRECalc, Vanguards Portfolio Longevity calculator, Fidelity Retirement Income Planner, and T Rowe Price Retirement Income Calculator.

FIRECalc and Fidelity both give me results I like very much ! 90% or better confidence level of my portfolio lasting 35 years (75% of it lasting to 45 years).

Vanguard is more conservative - 80% chance of my portfolio lasting 30 years.

The T Rowe Price calculator is downright depressing, 80% chance of my porfolio lasting 26 years and 40% chance of my portfolio lasting 40 years.


I understand that these calculators are just "tools" but how do you know if you've reached FI with such varying results ?
Most of them have an "assumptions" page somewhere. Look at that, and pick the one that assumes things closest to your internal beliefs. Then, if you're wrong, you have no one to blame but yourself. :)

For example, I've used some that don't allow different assumptions for "after retirement" returns than "pre retirement" returns. That's just not very bright IMO. Heck, even if they allow both, that's not reality, as we change our allocations slowly over time.
 
In that case, if your spreadsheet is well designed and does not have computational flaws, do not retire unless you can count on large SS or other pension that your spreadhseet does not account for.

I basically am not able to believe that any significant number of retirees will be able to happily watch their portfolios deplete as they themselves age; or that they will be able to calmly accept huge drawdowns after the option of returning to work is clearly closed. The next time you pass a homeless man or woman ask yourself if you would be able to pass this person without feeling personal terror if you were 78 and your spouse is sick and you are down to your last $150,000.

Ha

My homegrown spreadsheet assumes 4% annual return and 3% inflation. I've only included 67% of what SS says I will get. However .... I think you're right. I can survive for some period of time but I'm thinking I need to be w*rking another 5 years (bummer). :( Maybe we'll stop having sideways years in the market over that period too ! (LOL a girl can dream, no ?)

If you're a VG customer you should be able to use Financial Engines (just another calculator to try :))

Not a VG customer. I do have access to the "non monte carlo" version of FE. That one is telling me I'm good to age 85.
 
My homegrown spreadsheet assumes 4% annual return and 3% inflation. I've only included 67% of what SS says I will get. However .... I think you're right. I can survive for some period of time but I'm thinking I need to be w*rking another 5 years (bummer). :( Maybe we'll stop having sideways years in the market over that period too ! (LOL a girl can dream, no ?)



Not a VG customer. I do have access to the "non monte carlo" version of FE. That one is telling me I'm good to age 85.

Seems very conservative, particularly the 67% of SS. What do you get with 90% or 100% of SS? More than 82 I assume.
 
I basically am not able to believe that any significant number of retirees will be able to happily watch their portfolios deplete as they themselves age; or that they will be able to calmly accept huge drawdowns after the option of returning to work is clearly closed. The next time you pass a homeless man or woman ask yourself if you would be able to pass this person without feeling personal terror if you were 78 and your spouse is sick and you are down to your last $150,000.

Yes, most people would cut way back on their expenses and not continue to spend like any of these calculators assume.

Still, if one finds himself in the predicament that you described, then it is time to sell the house and to get "hostile and mobile" like Uncle Mick likes to say. Even if one does not have a house, the $150K still leaves enough to get a used RV and hit the road. There are plenty of people who survive on just SS alone. One just has to become more resourceful, to avoid living in terror.
 
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+1

That Merrill calculator scares the cr*p out of me.

+2 It suggests a 5.4% WR for me. I wish.

Perhaps I should tell them that I'll give them my entire nestegg in exchange for 5% WR inflation adjusted for the next 45 years and they can keep the 0.4%.
 
Seems very conservative, particularly the 67% of SS. What do you get with 90% or 100% of SS? More than 82 I assume.

at 90% I get to 85 before my portfolio is depleted. I use the 67% (actually I looked and I knocked it down to 50%) to hedge risks of retirement age going up another year or two, or SS payments being cut back based upon income, or Medicare costs going up.

Part of me says I can ER within the next year, another part of me says "why risk it". Guess my conservative nature is what has gotten me to the point where I can even THINK about retiring at 50 - not a bad problem to have !
 
In that case, if your spreadsheet is well designed and does not have computational flaws, do not retire unless you can count on large SS or other pension that your spreadhseet does not account for.

I basically am not able to believe that any significant number of retirees will be able to happily watch their portfolios deplete as they themselves age; or that they will be able to calmly accept huge drawdowns after the option of returning to work is clearly closed. The next time you pass a homeless man or woman ask yourself if you would be able to pass this person without feeling personal terror if you were 78 and your spouse is sick and you are down to your last $150,000.

Ha

I don't know if there are similar programs in your state but in Oregon, there are programs that will allow a person to rent a simple apartment on 1/3 of whatever their income is (below a certain income level of course). So, if your income is just SS at $900 a month for example, an apartment can be had for $300 a month. Although not a common approach at this forum since most of us are millionaires (or so it seems) there really are a lot of resources at far lower levels. I think there is a lot more to homelessness than just the $$$.
 
I understand that these calculators are just "tools" but how do you know if you've reached FI with such varying results ?
Part of me says I can ER within the next year, another part of me says "why risk it". Guess my conservative nature is what has gotten me to the point where I can even THINK about retiring at 50 - not a bad problem to have !
Here's some issues to consider:
1. In general, Monte Carlo simulations are more conservative than the historical data. Of course many people also think that the historical data was an anomaly and that Monte Carlo might more accurately reflect the future.
2. The more detailed the calculator, the better you can understand the assumptions and the recommendations. I'd put more weight on FinancialEngines.com than I would on any other Monte Carlo calculator.
3. Most retirement calculators do not handle variable spending in retirement. If you're getting close to the 4% threshold, then consider Bob Clyatt's 4%/95% variable-spending thumbrule from his "Work Less, Live More" book.
4. Build yourself a barebones budget-- the absolute minimum you're willing to tolerate before becoming a Wal-Mart greeter or a doorman at an apartment complex when you're 82 years old. Make that your 100% success threshold, or annuitize that amount of your portfolio. Treat the rest of your portfolio as money to be spent when there is not a bear market.
5. Use Bud Hebeler's "Analyze Now!" negative-feedback annual-spending review system instead of a calculator.
6. Use Otar's red-light calculator.
7. Use the 4% rule to start your ER, and keep an eye on your portfolio vs annuity costs. If your portfolio declines to the absolute minimum standard of living that you can tolerate then start buying annuities. It's a study discussed in this thread:
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/new-thoughts-on-the-draw-down-phase-29273.html

You might want to start spending some time on Wade Pfau's blog. I think he's producing some of today's most innovative and useful retirement research analysis since Milevsky & Bernstein. I suspect that over the next decade he's going to figure out how to mix in variable retirement spending and annuities into a retirement calculator.
Pensions, Retirement Planning, and Economics Blog

Here's some other reading. I write for a military audience, but this is applicable to all ERs:
Retirement planners and calculators (part 1 of 2) | Military Retirement & Financial Independence
Retirement planners and calculators (part 2 of 2) | Military Retirement & Financial Independence
Is the 4% withdrawal rate really safe? | Military Retirement & Financial Independence
Problems with retirement calculators | Military Retirement & Financial Independence
 
I don't know if there are similar programs in your state but in Oregon, there are programs that will allow a person to rent a simple apartment on 1/3 of whatever their income is (below a certain income level of course). So, if your income is just SS at $900 a month for example, an apartment can be had for $300 a month. Although not a common approach at this forum since most of us are millionaires (or so it seems) there really are a lot of resources at far lower levels. I think there is a lot more to homelessness than just the $$$.
I know you are right about these things sometimes being available, but there are plenty of gotchas. I get to know vendors of Real Change, a street newpsaper sold by homeless or recently homeless people. One woman I know recently got an apartment like this. She loves it; but she was on a waiting list for 3 years before she got the call. She is dying from lung cancer that she might be able to get operated on if only she had the energy and oomph to put on the 10 pounds the doctors want before they will consider her for surgery. I know another guy who is one of the sweetest, brightest men I know. He is very appealing to people and has many friends who only buy from him outside of one particular store where he works long days rain or shine. His mother recently died, which freed up a bedroom in his brother's house which he is moving into now. But for many long years before, he lived on cardboard in the entryway to a woman's store out in north city. He kept her sidewalks and parking area free of snow, cleaned up random messes customers and passersby made, and in return she gave him a place to camp out so he didn't have to carry his bedding around all day. It took him 2 bus rides each way to get from his "home" down here to work where there is much more pedestrian traffic and it is easier to sell a liberal/radical newspaper. Today he told me his sciatica is kicking up and it will be a long day for him standing on the pavement. Once a couple years ago during a spell of real cold weather I asked him if he ever considered public housing- "Oh hell yes, but they try to give that first to women with kids, and there are plenty of them to use up all that is available." He also said, "and that is how it should be".

So it isn't as simple as it looks from the outside, or to someone who has never really lost in his life. Likewise the "get a motorhome and go fishing" is mostly and most times a pure fantasy. Fine for young male loner or even a couple, but problem plagued for a woman or many an older person. What if your money troubles coincide with early Alzheimers, or maybe a stroke?

I know there are many homeless people with heavy mental/emotional and/ substance problems, but often there is little or nothing they can do about that either. But a large number of them are tougher and more resiliant than the average salaryman or woman sitting in front of their 50"TV. They just turned some different cards in the Tarot Deck of life.

Physical appearance really counts too. Lose a few teeth and your chances of finding a job on today's market take a dive. And losing a few teeth is very easy to accomplish when you fall out the bottom. In an aside, I was tired of paying dentists a huge sum for teeth cleaning and a most cursory exam, only to have them attempt to sell some restorative program that I often suspected was to help them restore their bank accounts recently depleted by divorces. So I went to a school that trains hygienists. They have staff supervisors, and an incredibly nice and thorough dentist. The hygienists were joking me about being rich, since I had so much gold in my mouth. I told them to relax since that all went with my ex. Anyway, the dentist said "we don't see many mouths this clean here".

We middle class people usually have no idea how other people really live. In general, not as well as we do.:)

This message is as poplular here as a whore in church, but I feel that if one is at all in doubt, keep working. It will never be easier to increase your security than right now while you still have a job.

Ha
 
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