Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 10-27-2008, 03:42 PM   #21
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
As Unclemick is fond of saying, "hurry up and just stand there" may be a better long-tern strategy than a knee-jerk emotional reaction.

I've re-learned the market can decline faster, deeper, and (I'm afraid) stay down much longer than I envisioned.
I've learned having 5+ years in cash is a wonderful thing, but it doesn't guarantee a good night's sleep.
I've learned waiting to age 66 or 70 to start SS benefits is great in theory, but not necessarily the best option.
I've learned if you are retired and living entirely off your portfolio a very conservative 45/55 asset allocation can still be a Fruit-of-the-Loom staining level of risk.
Hurry up just stand there is from Bogle - but I don't remember which speech/article.

To paraphrase an ancient ole pal - tooo bad there wasn't a 'mentor?' to whack me around the head with wet squirrel in 1966 to buy an index or lifecycle fund. Of course they in fact came later.

But had I just dollar cost averaged 'the market' thru thick and thin, good times and bad, stayed the course, reinvested dividends - I'd be posting this from the Bahamas instead of north of Kansas City. And saved a lot on the price of my investment 'education.'

Ben Graham gave the math version of John J Raskob's 'Everybody Ought to Be Rich' Ladies Home Journal article prior to the 29 Crash.

Often lampooned - but had you dollar cost averaged thru the Depression and out 20 plus years - you actually would be rich.

Did I listen after reading Intelligent Investor? - nope.

Got some great tales of why I don't like Spotted Owls on timberland, how the Boy Scouts in the end didn't take our patented gold mine off our hands, got pretty good shooting guns at the gravel pit and learned to like freeze dryed food even before the backpack versions came out.

60/70's gold, guns, and freeze dryed food.

heh heh heh - I haven't bought commodities - yet. . Even though I think contango and backwardation are cool words.

Target Retirement - those Vanguard computers don't make the interesting noises like when I scream and yell - they don't watch football either.
__________________

__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-27-2008, 03:52 PM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 2,049
When my "play money" starts throwing off decent returns each month, withdraw some and invest in index funds.
__________________

__________________
eridanus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2008, 04:05 PM   #23
Full time employment: Posting here.
tangomonster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 756
Like Dawg, I found that 50/50 is too aggressive for me. Once I recoup some of what I lost, it will be more about capital preservation than growth.

I learned not to trust what stocks have done historically----this may be a whole new ball game.

And I learned that I don't have to hoard all my money----because now I'm going to have to be able to live on less...so in a weird way, this may actually encourage me not to be so frugal!
__________________
“It is not a sign of good health to be well adjusted to a sick society”.------Krishnamurti
tangomonster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2008, 04:36 PM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bikerdude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
1.) I'm going to learn how dividends hold up in a prolonged "Bear" market.

2.) Bonds/cash = your age.
__________________
“I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said” Alan Greenspan
Bikerdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2008, 05:26 PM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 2,951
The question suggests the lesson is over, but I'm not too sure about that and I'm still studying my notes. I've withstood the carnage pretty well emotionally, but I have 10 yrs to go. This has reinforced the need for a bucket and/or lifecycle approach going forward.

I'd like to take credit for "Don't DO something..........just STAND there!", which I used many years ago, but I've seen somebody else use it also.
__________________
jazz4cash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2008, 05:26 PM   #26
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,487
In the past month I have learned two things -

- You gotta have a plan B

- I can still make a mean pot of chili.
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2008, 06:15 PM   #27
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,440
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post

And don't gloat if you have missed the mess, and don't be too hard on yourself if you got mauled by the bear.


Ha
But but....I enjoy banging my head against a wall. Gives me a buzz.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2008, 08:28 PM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by retire@40 View Post
Stupid people can make you lose money indirectly even when you do everything right.
So very true. I knew the home builders, and particularly financial companies were contributing to the bubble, and so tried to not own any. But they still hurt me.

How could I have made retribution against all those that contributed to this mess?

I could have shorted them! Never did in my life, and never did think about it. But thinking back I could have hedged against the drop of my holdings of "good companies" that I believe in, by shorting the "bad ones". No, not while they were rising up - never underestimate the size of the bubble - but when the news broke, and they were on the long slide down.

Am I too mean? Bad karma? This is really against my gentle nature.
__________________
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2008, 10:43 PM   #29
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas 'burb
Posts: 9,039
I've realized that the many lean, tough years I have experienced made me stronger. I'm comfortable with my A/A and will stay with it. So let the good/bad times roll.....

I'm a survivor.
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2008, 11:22 PM   #30
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
ladelfina's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,713
I learned that I should trust my instincts and not be swayed by the "conventional wisdom" including that found on this board.

Not to knock anyone here in particular, or knock the concept.. Just that there are so few people even tuned in to the idea of trying to live off of investments that I gave undue credence to a buy/hold philosophy that promises to even out the rough spots. This is not a rough spot, imo, but a chasm, possibly a black hole. AA is virtually irrelevant. I imagine a portion of my holdings might recover in 30-40 years.. by the time I am 80 or 90; I don't know what will befall us in the meantime. What will be the survivorship of currently-publicly-traded companies?

I saw this coming early in the year.. as if it were a mirage on the horizon that no one else saw, or only a few other 'deranged, tin-foil hat' people.

I didn't trust my own instincts that it was the mirage that was real, while it was everything else that was fake.

I feel dislocated.

---
I learned that it is a little bit foolish to be in the stock market if one does not have the experience or acumen or ba!!s to short.

I learned that the world is much crazier and chaotic than we have been led to believe.

commenter elsewhere:
Quote:
Overseas on an OT subject, the world is really burning up! Reading about Hungary and all eastern Europe for that matter. This could spread to set western Europe on fire worse than it already is. Imagine, single mothers in Hungary were taking out 100% loans in Swiss currency! One woman saw a 10% increase in her mortgage in a week! Many in worse shape than her. Icelanders taking home mortgages in YEN! Amazing!
__________________
ladelfina is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2008, 11:44 PM   #31
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Following the nice weather
Posts: 6,439
Quote:
Originally Posted by ladelfina View Post
This is not a rough spot, imo, but a chasm, possibly a black hole. AA is virtually irrelevant. I imagine a portion of my holdings might recover in 30-40 years.. by the time I am 80 or 90;
LOL! I've learned that the internet is populated by drama queens, just like the real world.

I've learned that it's different this time, just like it was all those other times.

I truly have learned to not buy into the conventional wisdom, on either the upswing or the downswing.

I've also learned that it's better to be lucky than good, and that when people are telling you how good they are (and this includes me), they are full of crap.

I've learned that I can predict downturns, having predicted both this one and the 2000 flameout, plus four or five others that never happened. Of course, I didn't do anything about them, so it didn't do me any good.

I've learned that the economy directly tracks my fantasy football team. I have the second highest point total in my league, but a 2-5-1 record. The US economic base is also strong, but it still sucks.

And I've learned that this too shall pass.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Will Rogers, or maybe Sam Clemens
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2008, 12:27 AM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,451
Quote:
Originally Posted by ladelfina View Post
I learned that I should trust my instincts and not be swayed by the "conventional wisdom" including that found on this board.

Not to knock anyone here, or knock the concept.. Just that there are so few people even tuned in to the idea of trying to live off of investments that I gave undue credence to a buy/hold philosophy that promises to even out the rough spots. This is not a rough spot, imo, but a chasm, possibly a black hole. AA is virtually irrelevant. I imagine a portion of my holdings might recover in 30-40 years.. by the time I am 80 or 90; I don't know what will befall us in the meantime. What will be the survivorship of currently-publicly-traded companies?

I saw this coming early in the year.. as if it were a mirage on the horizon that no one else saw, or only a few 'deranged, tin-foil hat' people.

I didn't trust my own instincts that it was the mirage that was real, while it was everything else that was fake.
I learned that I'm not as good at spotting overvalued markets as thought.
I was convinced in 99 that tech stocks were overvalued. There was a glich in Schwab computers recently and for calculating performance it showed transaction I made back in Oct 1998 to short Yahoo at 188. I eventually close that trade out (at a loss ) but with Yahoo at $11 I feel vindicated. I had very little trouble getting out of tech stock in Jan 2000, despite the claims of many that Internet obsoleted traditional valuation.

For whatever reason I didn't see this train wreck coming. I think part of the reason was unlike the internet bubble where I was fortunate to be near ground zero, the house bubble seemed far removed. Honobob wasn't completely crazy housing prices in Hawaii are reasonably stable and foreclosure rates are low.

I don't think I called any of you people who foresaw this one idiots and if did I apologize. Ladelfina if it is any consolation, I appreciate the many posts you made pointing out the dangers of too much debt in the system.

Your posts were enough for me to at least ease my foot off my the accelerator enough that I slowed my stock buying mania down I bit. I feel like crashed into the track wall at 100 instead of 150 MPH, thanks to your posts so thanks.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2008, 01:22 AM   #33
Recycles dryer sheets
Linney's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 262
I've learned that I'm a really lousy market timer. I bought several times during those "Blue Light specials" back in June. HA! I learned that I need to stick with what I do best -- DCA, year after year.

I've learned that while a 5 figure paper loss was mildly uncomfortable (2001-2003) a 6 figure paper loss is a heck of a lot more unconfortable. This paper loss is giving me a good education on how to handle my portfolio as I switch from accumulation to distribution over the next ten years. I'm thinking about how I would go about restructuring my portfolio for income and capital preservation, yet mindful of the need to outpace inflation.

I've learned that there are some great ideas on this board and some which... um... at least get me thinking I appreciate the poster who suggested switching one's 401k investment to all stock to take advantage of the low prices (thanks! implemented that suggestion two weeks ago) After all my fund purchases back in June, I was feeling too uncomfortable with rebalancing my 401k right now but I found that I was comfortable with directing all new contributions to funds on sale right now. DCA, yup, I'm good at that.

I've probably learned a lot more things than that but those are the ones which are top of mind right now.

--Linney
__________________
Linney is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2008, 03:02 AM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
I think one hard lesson we all may learn is one that was learned 100 years ago. We are assuming that what is happening now is like bear markets in the last 40 years.

We could all be financially ruined and not know it yet. This financial crisis has not been corrected. We could have many many business failures. If businesses begin to file bankruptcy, even your bonds may be worthless... or you get pennies on the $.

I am sticking with my original plan of diversified stocks and bonds... But I realize that I may loose 1/2 perhaps more of my savings (it could take 10 - 15 years to recover).

I normally have a lot of faith in our system... but we are going through something that no one understands. I do not think many American's grasp the desperate circumstances we find ourselves in. Many of us are assuming the system will correct itself... and it will. But how long it will take is the question. Looking at a worse case situation.. if it takes 15 to 20 years to recover... then in practical terms for most of us it is permanent.
__________________
chinaco is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2008, 03:29 AM   #35
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,414
i think we all learned those words in a prospectous ,MAY CONTAIN RISKS really does mean something

we learned taking risks may not always produce higher returns long term.

we learned history never repeats its self, only historians repeat themselves, each time things play out different enough to make each event very different from the time before


we learned my saying i always toughted on this board "its no longer about growing richer as we get older but its about not growing poorer has much truth.

it looks like index funds and most managed funds are about even in this downturn. my managed funds are slightly less down but both are pretty much crushed to the same levels. while the managed funds may have made defensive moves the slightly hiher expense negated that


lastly i learned that while following ray lucias bucket system may have been a little more conservative then i would have liked at times its a beautiful thing right now to know i have a plan in place that will not require me to sell equities for almost 15 years.....



i learned ill be working longer and not pulling the plug as early as i thought
__________________
mathjak107 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2008, 08:14 AM   #36
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
tryan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,449
I learned how to clean my chimney and start 2 propane furnaces (for more than a decade I've hired these things out).

Yeah, I know it's only a few hundred bucks - while I am down a few hundred grand - but I felt better doing it myself.
__________________
FIRE'd since 2005
tryan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2008, 12:28 PM   #37
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 217
What I have learned from the 2000 bubble until now.
Lost quite a bit in that one.
1 Dont trust broker to protect your money.
2 From my neighbors current losses, dont trust financial advisor,
take what they say with a grain of salt.
3 AA does not seem to work that well.
4 Buy and hold also does not work well.
5. Markets now move really fast.
6. In this market there is always another shoe to fall.
7 Rule 1. Never loose the principal.
8. Rule 2. Read rule 1.

I am new here and will be early retired in 3 days, was VRIPed,due
to old line private company being sold to investment company.

I have learned quite a bit from this and another board, but I will
take what I have learned with another grain of salt.
Old Mike
__________________
mf15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2008, 12:51 PM   #38
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
ls99's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 4,792
Can't say I've learned anything from this recent mess.

Having been in LBYM mode since early teens, the ups of the past seemed extravagant. This current financial downturn is closer to what I was familiar with growing up.

Besides, no lines at the gas stations, or alternate days for that go dino juice. No bread lines, no trekking to the bank with cash to receive the newly devalued money ten times the denomination and half the value.
To paraphrase my favorite slogan from my long ago Aleutian days (originally referring to the clouds, now to the economy): "I think its lifting" other guy; why? "can't get much lower".

The habit and comforts of LBYM makes all this an amusing spectacle.
__________________
There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
ls99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2008, 01:14 PM   #39
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
ladelfina's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,713
ls99, the LBYM mentality of everyone here will make this downturn easier on us than on many others. That is one (relatively) positive thing to keep in mind.
__________________
ladelfina is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2008, 02:49 PM   #40
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 322
Quote:
Originally Posted by tangomonster View Post
And I learned that I don't have to hoard all my money----......so in a weird way, this may actually encourage me not to be so frugal!
this is me too... in the next month, I plan to buy furniture from here: Thos. Moser : Vita Horizontal Dresser

i learned i have zero tolerance to risk.
i also learned i need to trust my instincts. this has served me well in my job, but i wasn't sure of myself with financial markets. i've been following finance since early teens. of course, i still don't know but a little, but i am more trusting of my ability to believe what seems logical to me.
fortunately, we actually had less than 20% in when things started to fall (that I kept as a hedge against my uncertainty), although every time I posted on this board or came to read I felt real dumb.
__________________

__________________
P.S. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Lock in electric rates or continue month-to-month? soupcxan FIRE and Money 47 08-02-2008 11:25 PM
Checking Past Stock Prices yakers FIRE and Money 12 08-29-2007 10:40 AM
Items from our past-SEARCH crazy connie Other topics 12 04-07-2007 08:23 PM
Tales of Christmas past... REWahoo Other topics 6 12-27-2006 11:41 AM
Homeowners Own Less Than In The Past REWahoo FIRE and Money 4 08-08-2005 07:02 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:54 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.