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Old 10-28-2008, 03:02 PM   #41
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Hey the Saint's won in London. Now that I think about it this is way more fun, at least so far than 1966 - 1982.

I wonder if I should get me a new shotgun, some more gold and platinium coins(maybe some new Panda's) and try the lastest in freeze dryed food.

Glad I know what I know now and glad I'm on full auto with a Target fund so I don't have to strain myself with a lot of thinking(legend in my own mind stuff).

Fun being on a relative scale and with the fond hope this little difficulty doesn't last as long as the above 1966 - 1982 period of er flatness(with dips).

heh heh heh -no such thing as a free lunch. Rats!
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Old 10-28-2008, 03:08 PM   #42
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I've learned that the Eagle is a Chicken.

When the Market was up I prated about how I would buy if/when the market hit 11,500. Didn't do it. Still haven't bought anything or changed my allocation. Cluck. Cluck.

I learned that pensions combined with social security are good. I expect the market to return to the golden days of yesteryear and I have the capability to wait on it. Further, the tried and true LBYM principle ensures that capability.

I learned that asset allocation works well if you do it right before everything blows up. I've learned that you must take a realistic look at the worst that could happen and then do what you can to prevent it. Don't trade with money that you can't afford to lose. Play defense, especially if you're retired.

I've learned that past performance does not predict future results... but I knew that.
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Old 10-28-2008, 03:48 PM   #43
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I've learned that the Eagle is a Chicken.
"Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines." Anon.

Nor do chicken!

PS. I am also proud to be a chicken. No, make it a rooster.
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:11 PM   #44
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I've learned:

  • I have nerves of steel, and so does DH (we're at 80/20 equities/bonds and have experienced a 35% drop so far...).
  • Having cash ready to invest at a market downturn is really nice. We didn't have enough this time around to invest as much as we'd like and so will be putting money into a MMF pronto.
  • Being young helps during a bear.
  • Never underestimate the psychological power of an emergency fund.
  • Most folks (us included) can't pick stocks or time the market worth beans. Indexing the total market is where we're heading.

And I was reminded:

The fact that I've got money in the market puts me among the fortunate. Yeah, we lost a bunch of our retirement money, but at least we had it to lose.
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:15 PM   #45
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"Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines." Anon.

Nor do chicken!

PS. I am also proud to be a chicken. No, make it a rooster.
My first lead engineer at Boeing said his first job was tossing chickens into the jet engines - until the Humane Society got wind and made them put them to sleep first.

SOooo - does a sleeping Eagle count? I mean even if I don't look those Vanguard computers are rebalancing my Target Retirement - right?

heh heh heh - does a bear---nevermind. .
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:15 PM   #46
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Well after today I learned that volatility works both ways!

Dow +10.88%
Nasdaq + 9.53%
SP500 + 10.79%
VEU + 12.39%

DD
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:17 PM   #47
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My first lead engineer at Boeing said his first job was tossing chickens into the jet engines - until the Humane Society got wind and made them put them to sleep first.

SOooo - does a sleeping Eagle count? I mean even if I don't look those Vanguard computers are rebalancing my Target Retirement - right?

heh heh heh - does a bear---nevermind. .
NASA Chicken Gun - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:21 PM   #48
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Urban legend - and a darn good one!

Scientists at NASA have developed a gun for the purpose of launching dead chickens. It is used to shoot a dead chicken at the windshield of airline jet, military jet, or the space shuttle, at that vehicle's maximum traveling velocity. The idea being, that it would simulate the frequent incidents of collisions with airborne fowl, and therefore determine if the windshields are strong enough to endure high-speed bird strikes.

British engineers, upon hearing of the gun, were eager to test it on the windshields of their new high-speed trains. However, upon firing the gun, the engineers watched in shock as the chicken shattered the windshield, smashed through the control console, snapped the engineer's backrest in two, and embedded itself into the back wall of the cabin.

Horrified and puzzled, the engineers sent NASA the results of the experiment, along with the designs of the windshield, and asked the NASA scientists for any suggestions.

The NASA scientists sent back a brief response: "Thaw the chicken."
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:37 PM   #49
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Urban legend - and a darn good one!

Scientists at NASA have developed a gun for the purpose of launching dead chickens. It is used to shoot a dead chicken at the windshield of airline jet, military jet, or the space shuttle, at that vehicle's maximum traveling velocity. The idea being, that it would simulate the frequent incidents of collisions with airborne fowl, and therefore determine if the windshields are strong enough to endure high-speed bird strikes.

British engineers, upon hearing of the gun, were eager to test it on the windshields of their new high-speed trains. However, upon firing the gun, the engineers watched in shock as the chicken shattered the windshield, smashed through the control console, snapped the engineer's backrest in two, and embedded itself into the back wall of the cabin.

Horrified and puzzled, the engineers sent NASA the results of the experiment, along with the designs of the windshield, and asked the NASA scientists for any suggestions.

The NASA scientists sent back a brief response: "Thaw the chicken."


heh heh heh - very good!
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Old 10-28-2008, 04:37 PM   #50
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Shuck! I forgot chicken got plucked.

Hey, it rythmes.
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Old 10-28-2008, 05:29 PM   #51
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Things I've learnt:

1. Beware of gurus without oversight
2. If you can't understand it, it's probably too good to be true
3. If experts can't understand it, it's definitely too good to be true
4. There are some real white collar criminals out there
5. Risk is inherent in the markets even if you do all the right things
6. A little regulation is a beautiful thing
7. I have nerves of steel (or at least alloy)
8. Cash flow is king
9. Gonna be slaving away for a while yet!
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Old 10-28-2008, 06:24 PM   #52
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I've learned

- I'm fine with volatility (we're down 30% or so), and DH is ok if he doesn't know the details
- It's important to check what your portfolio's doing more frequently than once a year, just so you know how it behaves
- We're probably going to want extra cash sitting around when we get closer to FIRE
- We may want to make our AA more conservative when we're withdrawing rather than accumulating
- I am definitely not a market timer. I prefer to stay with our DCA/AA plans rather than try for better returns by guessing the bottom
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Old 10-28-2008, 07:01 PM   #53
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and DH is ok if he doesn't know the details
Here, it's my wife who gets scared if I tell her.

Among my friends and family members, it is usually the husband who makes the investment decision (and hides the results ).

Was there a thread about which spouse or sex handles the investment process better?
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Old 10-28-2008, 07:10 PM   #54
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There is somewhere, but it might have been more than a year ago. There were quite a few households where the wife manages the investments and the husband was happy not to know any details.

Audrey
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Old 10-28-2008, 07:15 PM   #55
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And I almost forgot...

I learned that selling all your equities right before a market drop and being 100% in cash is the smart thing to do in the short-term.
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Old 10-28-2008, 08:45 PM   #56
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What I have learned:
- ignore the mass and experts.
- trust your intuition - if a dark cloud (or a big storm) is in the horizon, be prepare to get out to preserve your capital.
- stop worrying about capital gains -- it's better to pay the 15% long-term capital gain than to see a loss over 40%. It's true that there is not a reliable way to estimate the decline in advance. However, the up side potential was limited toward the end of last year and the down side was almost certain though not to the extent that we have witnessed recently. A buy-and-hold strategy may strive over the long haul, but I do not live forever. It might take a very, very long time just to recover our losses.
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:11 PM   #57
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I think most people are shocked by the depth of the drop.

But the "real ugly learning" that might remain to be seen could be the duration of a bear market - we could easily go sideways for 5 years.

I think there's a lot of people expect some "snap back" before year end - I wish, but....
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:37 PM   #58
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I had not paid attention to my asset allocation after the dot com bubble popped and had a lot more cash than I wanted to when I woke up and took a look.

I had been in the process of ramping up the equity portion while the market was going up so I did not get a chance to reallocate out of equities during the market high period.

I am now reallocating into equities to try to keep my equity portion close to 60%. My "stated" equity target was 60% or 65%.

I think I learned:

1) That you should have a more clearly defined asset allocation statement.
2) That you need to harvest your gains by reallocating out of equities or other categories when they exceed your targets.
3) That I am ok with the risk level maybe because
3a) I still am working at a high paying job.
3b) I spend way less than I make and between cash and I-bonds I have about 7 years expenses, so I sort of figure if all else goes to zero I have a small nest egg to fall back on.
3c) I try to realize that money is not the primary factor in happiness. In fact I watched a ted.com video today that showed a graph of the real income over the past 60 years adjusted for inflation going steadily up, but the percentage of people claiming to be happy running flat at 30% all during that period.
4) That Investors Business Daily predicted to get out of the dot com bubble and also predicted to get out of this one. I did not listen either time. However, I am not sure if they go to cash a lot of other times given their momentum-based strategy - so they may have predicted twelve of the last three crashes.
5) That I can depend on the members of this forum for lots of good advice and help with learning about investing and with guidance on my save money home improvement projects.
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:45 PM   #59
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I learned that Joe Dominguez, author of of Your Money or Your life wasn't as dumb as I thought when he said to put your entire nut in US Treasuries...
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Old 10-28-2008, 09:46 PM   #60
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I think most people are shocked by the depth of the drop.

But the "real ugly learning" that might remain to be seen could be the duration of a bear market - we could easily go sideways for 5 years.

I think there's a lot of people expect some "snap back" before year end - I wish, but....
This brings up a point I've been wondering about - do the large group of people on this forum really think that this crisis is unbearable and unmanageable? Or is this just the whining of some fairly spoiled brats who have had things going their way for too long? I mean, bear markets happen, financial meltdowns happen, people lose money (on paper and real) and homes, and basically, bad stuff happens.

But things recover. Eventually, sooner or later. I'm not that old (52), but I remember some pretty hard times, and definitely remember hearing depression stories from grandparents and other relatives. I guess I don't understand this "end of the world" attitude. Things suck right now. They've sucked before. Sometimes things are great. Now they aren't. If you use common sense and have a little intestinal fortitude you'll get through it, however long it takes. And I'm saying this as a ER with no pension who retired into the these bad times.

William Bernstein, in the 4 Pillars of Investing talks over and over about the big bad that comes along every generation or so. This appears to be ours. And I'm including the tech bubble, the housing bubble, and the current financial system ef-up as all part of our crisis. I'm not surprised at the MSM, the man on the street, the political pandering. However, I'm a little surprised that the people on this board, who I thought were head and shoulders above the crowd regarding investing and saving and LBTM are throwing out statements like "AA doesn't work", "zeo tolerance for loss", "30 years to recover", things like that. I understand the angst, but not the total desertion of the principals that were so strongly espoused just a few years ago, whether those principals were long term buy and hold, timing, cash, whatever.

Sorry for the rant, but this is all beginning to sound like the 9th grade after a pop quiz was announced. Life is still out there. Roll on.
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