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Old 01-02-2017, 08:27 AM   #21
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Yeah, I really don't get this thread. I guess the OP considers ages 70-90 as the sweet spot. These stats say that about 2/3 of guys will fall in there. What's wrong with that? Pretty good odds, I'd say.

Want to improve those odds of making it to 70? Take charge of your health, and avoid unnecessary risks. There's no sense of worrying about the other things that may take you out then.

Want to not out live your savings after 90? Take control of your financial health. Save enough and track your spending so you know if you have to cut back. Defer SS to 70, or at least time starting it at a market low.

Or, just bask in the sorrow that you will die some day and it might not be at a convenient time for you, if that's what gets you off. Try not to bring others around you down with your cloudy attitude though.
Right. Life is much better if you have an optimistic view.
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Old 01-02-2017, 09:08 AM   #22
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Texas is right. You are reading it backwards.
+1
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Old 01-02-2017, 09:37 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
I think you are reading this wrong... there is a GREATER than 84% chance you will be living at 70...... (you have the less than sign)...

If you think about what you wrote... 85 die within the first 10 years but 20% live past 90... that is 105%....
That's not what he wrote. Read it again.
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Old 01-02-2017, 09:51 AM   #24
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Don't forget that the longer you live, the better your odds get.
Not sure if this was meant to be humorous or not, but it is true. Whatever one's life expectancy is at age 60 (e.g., age 70), it's a tad better at age 61 (e.g., age 70.5 or whatever), and so on. So one needs to look at these life expectancy stats in perspective.
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Old 01-02-2017, 10:54 AM   #25
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If you think about what you wrote... 85 die within the first 10 years but 20% live past 90... that is 105%....
No.

The 20% who live past 90 are part of the ones who live past 70. So you cannot add them up.

Here's another example.

Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%

One cannot add the above numbers up and say that the chance of living past any age is greater than 100%.

What we can say is that, take 100 60-year-old's now, 7 will drop off within 5 years, and 15 within 10 years. The 15 that die within 10 years include the 7 that die within 5 years.

That's 1-in-6 chance (15 out of 100) of not making it to 70 if you are 60 now. And that is higher than people realize.

Think of loading a revolver which holds 6 rounds with 1 single bullet, and play the Russian roulette. It's scary, no?
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Old 01-02-2017, 11:12 AM   #26
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Let's look a bit further.

Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%
Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%

Out of one hundred 60-year-olds, 15 will die before 70 (100-85=15). Then, another 29 will die before 80, so that the number of survivors to 80 is 56 = 100 - 15 - 29.

Say that you are among the lucky ones to survive the 1st round of Russian roulette, there are 85 of you, what is the chance you will make it to 80?

Out of the 85 who make it to 70, 29 will die off before 80 (to leave 56 survivors). So, the risk of death for a 70-year old is 29/85 = 34%.

You get to play the Russian roulette again, but with 2 rounds loaded. 2 bullets in a 6-shot revolver gives you the risk of 2/6 = 33%.
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Old 01-02-2017, 11:19 AM   #27
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Let's keep on going.

Prob of 20 years past 60= 56.3%
Prob of 30 years past 60= 18.4%

So, you make it to 80. There are only 56 survivors out of the original 100. Only 18 of those will make it to 90. So, the number of deaths is 56 - 18 = 38.

38 deaths out of 56. That's huge. That's 38/56 = 68%, the risk of death for an 80-year-old. Your Russian roulette game now has 4 bullets loaded in the gun!
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Old 01-02-2017, 12:06 PM   #28
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It is a bit depressing on two counts:
- the average 60 YO guy has <85% chance of living to 70 (too soon)
- ~20% of average guys will be around at 90 (outlive savings?)
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Originally Posted by RunningBum View Post
That's not what he wrote. Read it again.
My bold on his quote... he is saying you have less than a 85% chance of living to 70.... that means 85% of the people die before 70... if so, there is no way 20% can live past 90.....
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Old 01-02-2017, 12:08 PM   #29
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No.

The 20% who live past 90 are part of the ones who live past 70. So you cannot add them up.

Here's another example.

Prob of 5 years past 60= 93.5%
Prob of 10 years past 60= 84.6%

One cannot add the above numbers up and say that the chance of living past any age is greater than 100%.

What we can say is that, take 100 60-year-old's now, 7 will drop off within 5 years, and 15 within 10 years. The 15 that die within 10 years include the 7 that die within 5 years.

That's 1-in-6 chance (15 out of 100) of not making it to 70 if you are 60 now. And that is higher than people realize.

Think of loading a revolver which holds 6 rounds with 1 single bullet, and play the Russian roulette. It's scary, no?
Read my post above.... I agree that if you only look at the table you are right... but he made a comment that had the wrong sign...


Unless of course I am having a dyslexic moment....
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Old 01-02-2017, 12:18 PM   #30
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My bold on his quote... he is saying you have less than a 85% chance of living to 70.... that means 85% of the people die before 70... if so, there is no way 20% can live past 90.....
No, a 84.6% (which is less than 85%, the OP's quote) chance of living to 70 mean that 84.6% of people live past 70, not die before. Only 15.4% of men die before 70.
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Old 01-02-2017, 12:21 PM   #31
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Scott Burns on the growing longevity gap:

https://assetbuilder.com/knowledge-c...-longevity-gap

Here's the tool he mentions which you can use yourself to estimate your longevity odds:

Actuaries Longevity Illustrator - Enter Your Information
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Old 01-02-2017, 01:03 PM   #32
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pour moi...
Born... life expectancy was age 60
Now age 80... statistics projects 88

How long were you expected to live when you were born?
Life Expectancy at Birth by Race and Sex, 1930–2010

The income equality factor (Options links) is interesting... Lots to think about re the future of the world.
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Old 01-02-2017, 03:08 PM   #33
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I have a cousin who lived to 96. His brother lived to 74. Dad lived to 95. My brother died at 69. Mom died at 57.

I am amazed that I am still going at 74...every year above ground is a good year...
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Old 01-02-2017, 03:23 PM   #34
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...every year above ground is a good year...
So my plan to be bronzed and placed on the front porch is viable?
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Old 01-02-2017, 04:16 PM   #35
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...every year above ground is a good year...
Double+10!

I w@#ked in underground coal mines for 35 years.
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Old 01-02-2017, 05:27 PM   #36
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Thinking some more about this, my reduction of the OP's numbers can be summarized as follows.

If you make it to 60 (where I am now), the risk of dying between 60 and 70 is 1 in 6.

Then, once you make it to 70, the risk of dying before 80 doubles to 1 in 3.

If you survive again, then the risk of dying before 90 goes up to 2 in 3.

The rule of thumb is the risk doubles every decade.

Between 90 and 100, death is near certainty. Indeed, only 173 out of 1 million make it to 100, according to the US 2010 Census. And of those centenarians, 83% are women.
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Old 01-02-2017, 06:59 PM   #37
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No, a 84.6% (which is less than 85%, the OP's quote) chance of living to 70 mean that 84.6% of people live past 70, not die before. Only 15.4% of men die before 70.

OK... I see... I was reading it wrong...
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:03 PM   #38
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OMG! We're all gonna die. Argggh.

And a Happy New Year to you, too.
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:32 PM   #39
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The problem with mortality tables is that they are averages of everyone: they don't take into account "priors". For instance: do you smoke, do you exercise, what your education level is, what your gender is, whether you are married, what your current health is, etc. Those, among other factors, contribute a lot to your expected longevity. There are calculators out there that consider these factors. I tried one and, at age 60, got an expected (50% chance) of living to 90.
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Old 01-02-2017, 08:10 PM   #40
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The problem with mortality tables is that they are averages of everyone: they don't take into account "priors". For instance: do you smoke, do you exercise, what your education level is, what your gender is, whether you are married, what your current health is, etc. Those, among other factors, contribute a lot to your expected longevity. There are calculators out there that consider these factors. I tried one and, at age 60, got an expected (50% chance) of living to 90.
You gotta take these calculators with a grain of salt. I tried one, and it told me there was a 92.6% chance I was already dead.
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