Social security estimate

[SumDay]

Not really related, but I'll chime in anyway: I applied for SS in November with first payment expected in March, if all goes well. However, I can no longer see my estimates. Just thought I'd let people know this will happen.

Estimated benefits: Not Available

We cannot provide you estimates because you recently applied for Social Security benefits or Medicare. Your local Social Security office can provide you with the information you requested.

[Al18]

Quote:

Originally Posted by garyt A bit of a threadjack, but say my wife's SS statemant says she'll get $1500 a month at 62, assuming she continues to make her current salary until then. If she retires at 59, any idea on how much her SS payment will be reduced by missing those 3 years? Is it substantial or nominal? thanks

https://socialsecurity.tools/ lets you plug in your salary history from https://www.ssa.gov/ You can simply copy and paste your entire salary history from SSA in one step. Note socialsecurity.tools is not an part of SSA - it was created by one of Google's founders. No info in transmitted from this site - you can read more by clicking the About link.

[JustCurious]

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Originally Posted by Dtail One additional point is I believe the yearly estimated increase through or until perhaps 60 or 61 years old is based on wage inflation and not Cola increases.

This is an important point that is often overlooked or not understood.

[CRLLS]

As I recall, the quick and dirty SS annual statement is calculated as if you continue to earn income at the current rate (+ some inflation rate) until full retirement age. With 17 years to go, and this being a FIRE board, that premise may not be applicable. I'd trust doing the long calculation with your inputs for the next 17 years over the simple statement.

[Spanky]

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Originally Posted by Al18 Since you're 17 years away from collecting, I would assume your SS benefit will be 23% smaller, based on SS's statement 'The laws governing benefit amounts may change because,by 2034 the payroll taxes collected will be enough to pay only about 77%of scheduled benefits.'

If that's the case, we all should start collecting ASAP, i.e., at age 62.

[RunningBum]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spanky If that's the case, we all should start collecting ASAP, i.e., at age 62.

I ran a spreadsheet with the cutback coming at the worst possible time, at age 70, and it pushed my breakeven point with my assumptions back from 84 to 91 for taking SS at 62 vs 70. Since I turn 70 in 2031, I could be pretty close to that worst case.

Taking SS at 62 would eliminate my ACA subsidy and close my Roth conversion window, so I probably won't start at 62 anyway. 65, maybe. Still a few years to decide and see what happens with everything.

[Spanky]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunningBum I ran a spreadsheet with the cutback coming at the worst possible time, at age 70, and it pushed my breakeven point with my assumptions back from 84 to 91 for taking SS at 62 vs 70. Since I turn 70 in 2031, I could be pretty close to that worst case. Taking SS at 62 would eliminate my ACA subsidy and close my Roth conversion window, so I probably won't start at 62 anyway. 65, maybe. Still a few years to decide and see what happens with everything.

Thanks for the analysis. Since my FRA will be in 2019, it is still better to delay SS until 2023 (age 70) despite the projected shortfall in 2034.

[pb4uski]

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Originally Posted by Spanky If that's the case, we all should start collecting ASAP, i.e., at age 62.

Not necessarily. On opensocialsecurity.com you can include a benefit reduction scenario under the advanced options, but the optimal solution isn't necessarily to take at age 62.

[kimcdougc]

I find this thread very useful. DH can start collecting at 62 this November. We haven't decided what we will do. Me, I have another 4 years to 62. Alas, just keep watching and reading and keeping up with current news about ss.

[SecondCor521]

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Originally Posted by Spanky If that's the case, we all should start collecting ASAP, i.e., at age 62.

I'm not saying @Spanky is thinking this way, but I wonder sometimes if people saying this are thinking that maybe the benefit cuts would only be to those who have not yet started collecting and not those who are already recipients.

Based on Social Security's phrasing, I've always thought that the haircut would be applied to all current and future recipients across the board. Yet I also doubt that is what we would end up with, as we seem to tend to preserve benefits for those closer rather than further away.

[joeea]

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Originally Posted by SecondCor521 I've always thought that the haircut would be applied to all current and future recipients across the board.

Unless the current rules are changed, that's exactly what will happen.

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Yet I also doubt that is what we would end up with, as we seem to tend to preserve benefits for those closer rather than further away.

I agree that the rules will change before that point in time.

[Bir48die]

So I read all sorts of comments about the solvency of SS. Well I'm just not in the boat of those that worry about it. Why?

1) Politicians won't let it happen

2) If you immediately take the earnings cap off it will solve most of it.

3) I'd worry more about the solvency of our country. If that goes to h*ll then we don't have to worry about the other stuff

In conclusion I don't see any haircuts on SS unless out elected representatives don't get off their lazy as*ses and fix it. They are coming up with all sorts of new ideas on how to raise taxes but this is the one that I personally would endorse and have even when I was a high earner.

[Perryinva]

If you are still only 45, and expect to have taxable income through age 60, then the current estimate, even inflation adjusted will still be low. I have copies of SS statements going back to the 80’s and if I take my age 45 statement, (61 now) and apply inflation increases to that amount it was pretty low. So use it as a rough number only. It is not a lot of use to plan for a retire income only using todays dollars, since no one knows what inflation will do that far in advance.

[Crabby Mike]

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Originally Posted by Bir48die So I read all sorts of comments about the solvency of SS. Well I'm just not in the boat of those that worry about it. Why? 1) Politicians won't let it happen

You're kidding, right?! Note the inability of the current crop of stubborn egotists (on both sides of the aisle) to even keep the government operating. I have ZERO confidence in the ability of our elected officials to agree on how to deal with something as complicated and controversial as overhauling Social Security, even given 15 more years to do it.

[imoldernu]

Thought it might be interesting to see how SS has worked out for an old timer.
Basically, here's how it went for jeanie and me.

1. We are the same age, and took SS the same time in 1999, when we were 62.
2. We retired in 1989 at age 53, and had no more earnings in the 10 year period to 1999, when we took SS @age 62. Spent down our IRA's in between.
3. During the 40 quarters that counted for SS, I maxed the income level. Jeanie, while she worked, never reached more than 1/2 of my earnings, so receives 1/2 of mine.
4. Now at age 82... our current SS total for both of us, is $27,000.

Can't remember what we received from SS back in 1999, but @ current (inflation adjusted)... the total would be 20 X 27000 - $540,000. It has helped.

[RunningBum]

Quote:

Originally Posted by imoldernu Thought it might be interesting to see how SS has worked out for an old timer. Basically, here's how it went for jeanie and me. 1. We are the same age, and took SS the same time in 1999, when we were 62. 2. We retired in 1989 at age 53, and had no more earnings in the 10 year period to 1999, when we took SS @age 62. Spent down our IRA's in between. 3. During the 40 quarters that counted for SS, I maxed the income level. Jeanie, while she worked, never reached more than 1/2 of my earnings, so receives 1/2 of mine. 4. Now at age 82... our current SS total for both of us, is $27,000. Can't remember what we received from SS back in 1999, but @ current (inflation adjusted)... the total would be 20 X 27000 - $540,000. It has helped.

So you're at around break even age now, and still kicking. Had you waited until 70 to collect, you'd be at about the same spot financially, and collecting ~$48K instead of $27K. Maybe you didn't have the funds to hold off on SS then, or maybe your returns have done better, or maybe that's not the right strategy for marrieds, but it seems like it'd be nice to have a much larger benefit for the rest of your life. Oh well.

[2retireearly]

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Originally Posted by brewer12345 Great. Thanks, folks. I am still 17 years away from the earliest time I could possibly take it (assuming it is still there), but it is helpful to have a rough number for planning purposes.

It assumes your last year's salary will be your salary each year until age 63,full retirement age or age 70. Then it takes from all those years the highest past 35 salaries, and those are used in the calc. So if your projected incomes are the same as your real incomes, with each year's maximum amount applies, then the estimate will be pretty close..

[audreyh1]

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Originally Posted by brewer12345 So the numbers I see are what I would get it I were the age to claim the benefit today. Payouts will increase at chained CPI, so this is effectively a real number if we believe that chained CPI is an accurate representation of inflation. That sound correct?

I don’t think SS is using chained CPI at present. Federal Income Tax brackets are.

I treat SS projections by age as real numbers in planning future income and taxes. Like you (I think) I’ve several years of zero earnings, so all future earnings are assumed by the SSA to be zero.

Brewer you’re making me feel old! I’m 11 years out, DH 7.

[audreyh1]

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Originally Posted by 2retireearly It assumes your last year's salary will be your salary each year until age 63,full retirement age or age 70. Then it takes from all those years the highest past 35 salaries, and those are used in the calc. So if your projected incomes are the same as your real incomes, with each year's maximum amount applies, then the estimate will be pretty close..

I think Brewer has been retired for several years? Or did some part time work come your way? Can’t remember.

At some point after a few zero earning years SSA sets future earnings to zero when projecting your SS payments.

[imoldernu]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunningBum So you're at around break even age now, and still kicking. Had you waited until 70 to collect, you'd be at about the same spot financially, and collecting ~$48K instead of $27K. Maybe you didn't have the funds to hold off on SS then, or maybe your returns have done better, or maybe that's not the right strategy for marrieds, but it seems like it'd be nice to have a much larger benefit for the rest of your life. Oh well.

Well.. maybe... but giving up 17 years of retirement,since age 53, to w*rk for an extra $21K /mo. @ age 83 .. hmmm... I'd have to think about that. Ummm, maybe I could afford that Mercedes.