Solar photovoltaic on the house as an investment

Lithium batteries can easily stand a 1C discharge. That is, Elon Musk's announced 7kWh home battery should be able to do 7kW, and it requires 57,000 of them at a cost of $171M retail to do 400MW, though they would last only 1 hour. Another big question is how many cycles the battery will last.

I think a nice feature of a distributed residential storage system is that it will alleviate the hardship put on the distribution grid. All that is needed is an inexpensive battery that can last.
 
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Robert A. Heinlein wrote about Shipstones in a book he wrote titled 'Friday'.
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In the story, Shipstones come in various sizes, some large enough to power ocean freighters and even spaceships. Others are smaller, intended to power a home or even a small tool, like a drill. They last forever. The guy who invented them won't tell how he does it and when anyone attempts to reverse-engineer them, they blow up.
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[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I imagine science fiction is more than just prediction of the future, it's a glimpse into the future. Storage of power will evolve into something that will totally change how we see energy.

Here's a potential on the horizon;
http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/Science-Fiction-News.asp?NewsNum=1179

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Electric company I worked at will be building pumped storage as peaker power. We use wind generated electricity at night to pump water up hill to run through a hydroelectric plant during peak hours on hot afternoons.

It's called the Iowa Hill Project

...

What I am curious to know is the investment cost of pumped water storage systems. There's a large initial cost, plus some maintenance and operating costs. How's that relative to the current small-scale battery cost? I am sure the numbers are available, but just not accessible to laymen.

Yes, it is interesting, and probably a good thing, but I didn't find much background info. It says 400MW capacity, but how many MW-hours can it provide each day? Cost was listed at $800M, but we need the hours to make sense of that. And how large of a grid is that 400MW on (perspective)? What is the environmental impact of a new 100 acre reservoir?

SMUD begins feasibility work on $800M pumped-storage system in the Sierra - Sacramento Business Journal

They list efficiency at 80%, so it wastes 20% of any stored energy, bring those costs up by that factor, plus amortizing construction costs.

Does that grid actually have a surplus of variable renewable energy that needs to be stored?

It looks like this is really more about cutting back NG peakers in the late afternoon and evening (they mention a 5:30 PM peak), which sounds good, but...

Look at it this way - they need NG peakers arround 5:30 PM, these can be scaled back with the pumped storage. But, what if there is little excess wind at night? Where are they getting the energy to pump this back up? Would a high % of energy to refill the reservoir come from baseline coal overnight? If so, this might not be so environmental?


So the key is whether they really have excess renewables (or expect it in a few years when this can come on line)? And how does that factor into the cost of renewables?

Really back-of-the envelope calculation here: Imagine a grid where we already have solar just hitting the daily peaks. To add more, we need to store/shift that power from the peak. Say you could use this 400MW capacity to store and shift a few hours of a solar farm output most days (this assumes it has the MW-hour capacity to take the entire output, I'm just basing this on peak capacity of each). A 400MW peak solar farm, at ~ $1/watt installed for the solar farm - their $800M pumped storage estimate adds $2 per watt to the system cost. Increase by 20% for losses, plus whatever operating costs there are. I don't know if that calculation is in the right context to make sense, but it could be close? Triples the cost of solar? This is why I question these comments that solar is now on par with coal - not when you add in the cost of making it available when we need it.

And we still have not dealt with days of storage, like many parts of the country would need. So we still need the capacity (and capital costs) of all those peaker plants, in many (most?) cases.

And big picture wise, how much of this kind of storage can be applied country-wide? There is some background at David MacKay FRS: : Contents, I may dig into that later.

-ERD50
 
We are still working on storage solutions to bridge the gap of a few hours between peak supply and peak demand. Storage that lasts a few days is currently beyond our reach. Large reservoirs would be nice, as the storage capacity (the kWh) is independent from the size of the equipment (the kW). So, pumped storage cost will not scale up with capacity like electrochemical batteries do. On the other hand, battery capacity can be added incrementally, requiring no massive initial investment.

Most likely, we will have an assortment of technologies, each to be used where it makes most sense.

I thought about solar in Hawaii where electric cost is high due to import of oil (or coal?). Even if solar does not reduce the size of the power plant, hence no reduction in capital equipment, perhaps it still helps lowering the operating cost as the plant does not burn as much expensive imported fuel.
 
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This is very interesting but too complicated for me. I say lower the KW cost a small bit and jackup the monthly connection fee to keep everyone paying their fare share to maintain viability of system. If they don't like it, then go completely off grid and avoid the monthly fee.


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This is very interesting but too complicated for me. I say lower the KW cost a small bit and jackup the monthly connection fee to keep everyone paying their fare share to maintain viability of system. If they don't like it, then go completely off grid and avoid the monthly fee.
Hey, us "solar freeloaders" helped HECO avoid building another generating plant. Instead they used their extra capital to boost the CEO's salary.

If we give utilities a chance to behave responsibly and they screw it up, then I'm going to oppose paying my "fair share" so that they can waste everyone's money.

Maybe a utility should be able to figure out their cost of producing power and their cost of maintaining the grid, and bill us accordingly.
 
Hey, us "solar freeloaders" helped HECO avoid building another generating plant. Instead they used their extra capital to boost the CEO's salary.

If we give utilities a chance to behave responsibly and they screw it up, then I'm going to oppose paying my "fair share" so that they can waste everyone's money. ...

I'm guessing 99% of the population would use that rationalization to oppose their "fair share" of taxes as well.

Maybe a utility should be able to figure out their cost of producing power and their cost of maintaining the grid, and bill us accordingly.

Like this? Careful what you wish for - with almost half the bill going to delivery, payback on solar will take a hit.
 

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Maybe a utility should be able to figure out their cost of producing power and their cost of maintaining the grid, and bill us accordingly.

That's exactly what our Co-Op does, but I've been with them for so long I assumed that's what they all do.

Our monthly electric bill has four components:

Availability charge - a flat charge of $25.00 "just because"
Delivery/Distribution charge - a per kwh charge for constructing and maintaining the grid
Energy Charge - a per kwh charge for the power they purchase
Fuel Cost Adjustment - a per kwh charge to increase the bill a bit more

Last month the three per kwh charges totaled just over $0.09 and $0.02 of that was for delivery/distribution. The payback numbers for solar don't work for us.
 
Hey, us "solar freeloaders" helped HECO avoid building another generating plant. Instead they used their extra capital to boost the CEO's salary.



If we give utilities a chance to behave responsibly and they screw it up, then I'm going to oppose paying my "fair share" so that they can waste everyone's money.



Maybe a utility should be able to figure out their cost of producing power and their cost of maintaining the grid, and bill us accordingly.


Well since NEE is coming in and buying out your good HECO friends maybe they will be able to drive price down and bring some efficiency to your expensive grid system down there. I think that is their goal and maybe adding a solar farm to provide electricity. I love buying electrical utility preferred stocks, but you Hawaiians take that solar too seriously for me to invest in the local power plant. I want my dividends safe and secure. :)
Our local rates are 12 cents summer and a bit under 8 cents in winter with a flat $8 line fee. Solar isn't going to overrun us here anytime soon so I load up on the safe preferreds from the local Ute.


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... Our local rates are 12 cents summer and a bit under 8 cents in winter with a flat $8 line fee...

In the summer, I am paying 7.41c /kWh during off-peak hours and 22.26c during on-peak. I do not think this cost differential is real, meaning I think they undercharge the off-peak and overcharge the on-peak to entice people to cut back consumption during peak hours.

So, I program my pool pump to run when electricity is cheap, and also put a timer on the water heater to lock it out during peak hours. Every month, they tell me how much I save compared to the bill I would have had under the conventional flat rate (yes, that is one of the options). I saved $13 last month.

An individual is entitled to do what is advantageous to himself, as long as he plays within the rules. Who does not take tax deductions and credits that he is allowed?
 
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In the summer, I am paying 7.41c /kWh during off-peak hours and 22.26c during on-peak. I do not think this cost differential is real, meaning I think they undercharge the off-peak and overcharge the on-peak to entice people to cut back consumption during peak hours.

So, I program my pool pump to run when electricity is cheap, and also put a timer on the water heater to lock it out during peak hours. Every month, they tell me how much I save compared to the bill I would have had under the conventional flat rate (yes, that is one of the options). I saved $13 last month.

An individual is entitled to do what is advantageous to himself, as long as he plays within the rules. Who does not take tax deductions and credits that he is allowed?


I had not ever bothered to check our official rates until I just wrote them above, though I had a decent idea. Interesting for me there is no peak or off peak charge for summer. Which is odd because that is when they roll in the dough. Although I just did a blended guess above they actually have peak winter rates of 8 plus cents for first 750 KWH and 5 plus cents over 750KWH. So they actually encourage you to turn up the heat. Maybe I will!
Income restricted people get a nice deal. 3 cents a KWH.


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Here, they have 3 different price plans for residential accounts, plus one for solar owners. Did not see anything for "income restricted" people.

My income is quite restricted right now, and I already have to create more myself via Roth conversion. Wonder if I could get cheap electricity for my AC if I lived in your state. :)

I can see the newspaper headline now: "Millionaire early retiree sucks up thousands of cheap kWh for his 5-ton AC". ;)
 
Here, they have 3 different price plans for residential accounts, plus one for solar owners. Did not see anything for "income restricted" people.

My income is quite restricted right now, and I already have to create more myself via Roth conversion. Wonder if I could get cheap electricity for my AC if I lived in your state. :)

I can see the newspaper headline now: "Millionaire early retiree sucks up thousands of cheap kWh for his 5-ton AC". ;)


The tabloids would love running that headline. :)


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That's exactly what our Co-Op does, but I've been with them for so long I assumed that's what they all do.

Our monthly electric bill has four components:

Availability charge - a flat charge of $25.00 "just because"
Delivery/Distribution charge - a per kwh charge for constructing and maintaining the grid
Energy Charge - a per kwh charge for the power they purchase
Fuel Cost Adjustment - a per kwh charge to increase the bill a bit more

Last month the three per kwh charges totaled just over $0.09 and $0.02 of that was for delivery/distribution. The payback numbers for solar don't work for us.

Basically the same kwh charges in the municipal system I live in about .02 for distribution and .06 for energy, as well as a base charge of about 6.00.
As with many coops the goal is the lowest cost for all customers thus the flat rate.
 
... they actually have peak winter rates of 8 plus cents for first 750 KWH and 5 plus cents over 750KWH. So they actually encourage you to turn up the heat. Maybe I will!
Or you can ask your neighbor to plug into his outlet and share the "savings". ;)

Why that rate structure? They've got more power than people can use? I wish my rate got lower the more I use.
 
I have seen people rig phone and cable lines between houses before so it can be done. :)
We must have plenty of power as there as never been a conservation alert that I am aware of. I had no idea it got cheaper in the winter. I need to see how close I get to 750kwh on a monthly basis. I will admit to being dumb and having no clue how much use that is. But if Im close and its February I will toss the blanket and warm the place up. Utility is 65% coal fired. Rates were even cheaper until the past few years they made them spend mega bucks on sending less pollution.



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What I am curious to know is the investment cost of pumped water storage systems. There's a large initial cost, plus some maintenance and operating costs. How's that relative to the current small-scale battery cost? I am sure the numbers are available, but just not accessible to laymen.

Here is a site with some info: http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/pump-up-the-storage/

The good news is that they are quite efficient. The bad news is that all the best sites have already been taken. The other bad news is that all that water has to be pumped back uphill, so best case is that it will produce power no more than 12 hours per day.

We visited the Boulder Canyon hydro plant when I was in college. They told us that the worst case scenario was if something happened and the water flow got shut down during operation. The water hammer could cause massive damage.

He related one of the tests they had run. They abruptly closed the bottom water valve under load. Slowly enough that the water hammer didn't damage the generator, of course. Then again, the operators at Chernobyl thought their test procedure was safe, too. :-[

He said that the reflection when the water hit the closed valve was impressive. The surge traveled back up the water passage and sent a 3' diameter fountain of water very high up at the upper lake.

A cubic meter slug of water moving at 100 m/sec has an impressive amount of momentum. If it it abruptly halted all the energy has to go somewhere.
 
The drumbeat of solar was in the daily rag this morning's op-ed. Talking about the German transformation of energy by moving power from where its produced to where its consumed. It was sounding pretty good until they had to slide in the disclosure last paragraph hoping most were too bored to finish reading it. That being their electricity costs are three times as high as North America. I would be digging for coal myself if my rates were jacked up 3X what I am paying now.


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re - pumped storage:
...
The good news is that they are quite efficient. The bad news is that all the best sites have already been taken. The other bad news is that all that water has to be pumped back uphill, so best case is that it will produce power no more than 12 hours per day. ...

I noted that the SMUD system plan for a 400MW (capacity) unit is expected to cost $800M. I think it is safe to assume that this is sized for that late afternoon peak, so probably no more than a few hours storage. Making that lake bigger would be added expense for very little benefit, so I bet they stopped there.

And I agree, there probably aren't too many places available for this. I've read that there is very little hydro we could add in the US, and while the 'run of the river' style could be applied more, the total power is so low it doesn't add up to much.

Then again, the operators at Chernobyl thought their test procedure was safe, too. :-[

He said that the reflection when the water hit the closed valve was impressive. The surge traveled back up the water passage and sent a 3' diameter fountain of water very high up at the upper lake.

A cubic meter slug of water moving at 100 m/sec has an impressive amount of momentum. If it it abruptly halted all the energy has to go somewhere.

Chernobyl pales in comparison to the failure of a hydro-electric plant:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam#1975_flood

According to the Hydrology Department of Henan Province, in the province, approximately 26,000 people died from flooding and another 145,000 died during subsequent epidemics and famine. In addition, about 5,960,000 buildings collapsed, and 11 million residents were affected. Unofficial estimates of the number of people killed by the disaster have run as high as 230,000 people.

Even the highest estimates for Chernobyl don't come close. Plus, Chernobyl was not really a 'power plant', it was a nuclear weapons plant that produced power as a by product. They eliminated a whole level of containment for the sole reason of being able to pull the weapon grade material from it more efficiently. It really doesn't even count as a 'power plant' disaster. France doesn't seem to have these sorts of problems with their 58 plants (~ a dozen accidents, zero fatalities over ~ 45 years).

-ERD50
 
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If you want to invest in a company that actually utilizes renewable energy with a commonsense approach then a good investment could be IDA -(IDACORP), which garners a significant amount of their energy 64 % from renewable energy primarily hydro mostly in Idaho though they are trying to work to bring power to west coast as well.
 
The drumbeat of solar was in the daily rag this morning's op-ed. Talking about the German transformation of energy by moving power from where its produced to where its consumed. It was sounding pretty good until they had to slide in the disclosure last paragraph hoping most were too bored to finish reading it. That being their electricity costs are three times as high as North America. I would be digging for coal myself if my rates were jacked up 3X what I am paying now.


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Is that all due to higher costs or just taxes like they throw on gas (for cars)....
 
Is that all due to higher costs or just taxes like they throw on gas (for cars)....
There is a 20% tax to support renewable energy sources and a 20% VAT tax in Germany. Because electricity is so expensive and China uses primarily coal at a world low cost of 8 cents per KW to users of Chinese electricity, Germany exempts business and industry from any taxes, business pays about 12 cents per KW and residential pays about 35 cents per KW. Germany uses about 1/8 the amount of electricity China uses. The increase for China in electric use from 2010 to 2011 was nearly the amount of electricity produced annually in all Germany.
 
The article didnt say so Running Mans response is more thorough than anything I know. Interesting part of the article was despite the high costs they still use 45% of energy production from coal. I do not know if that is keeping costs from being higher or contributing to their higher costs; ie building scrubbers that almost touch the moon. :)
 
Here is a site with some info: http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/11/pump-up-the-storage/

The good news is that they are quite efficient. The bad news is that all the best sites have already been taken. The other bad news is that all that water has to be pumped back uphill, so best case is that it will produce power no more than 12 hours per day.

I glanced through the article, and did not verify all his numbers and calculations. Assuming no serious errors, the author makes a good point that we cannot build enough pumped storage to stockpile our national power need for 1 week. Not even 1 day, as suitable sites are few.

In the far future, when fossil fuel runs out, we may be able to have enough solar and wind capacity, but without storage, we are still screwed. Coal will last us more than 100 years, so we have some time to figure this out. He talked about using the Great Lakes for storage which still may not be enough, and about us not having enough lead nor lithium to build the batteries that we would need.

Unless really new technologies are found, we cannot count on scaling up existing devices that we are currently using. Is it that bleak?
 
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