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Some info from an economist I saw live yesterday.......
Old 10-22-2008, 09:20 AM   #1
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Some info from an economist I saw live yesterday.......

I guess take it for what its worth. His name is Jeff Roach, he worked for B of A and now works at Horizon Investments. There are a few nuggets I gleaned I thought I would share:

1)He doesn't see a recovery until early Summer 2009 at the earliest.

2)Oil should remain low, near $70, because demand is imploding in several large markets.

3)There is a 75% correlation between the University of Michigan Consumer COnfidence index and the retail price of gas..........

4)For every 1% change in the dollar, there's a 7-8% change in the price of oil. So, if the dollar stregthens 1%, the price of oil should drop 7-8%

5)In 2005, up to 52% of all home loans were to people with BELOW median income..........

6)He is adamant that folks should have 10% of their AA in things like commodities and/or natural resources.........

That's the main points. He thinks a 2nd stimulus package is likely. However, in the first stimulus package, Congress brought back favorable depreciation recovery laws, so a lot of companies have incentive to do capital expenditures, as they can take large deductions up front.
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Old 10-22-2008, 09:24 AM   #2
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That's the main points. He thinks a 2nd stimulus package is likely. However, in the first stimulus package, Congress brought back favorable depreciation recovery laws, so a lot of companies have incentive to do capital expenditures, as they can take large deductions up front.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bud...er-Broad-Swath
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Old 10-22-2008, 12:15 PM   #3
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Old 10-22-2008, 12:37 PM   #4
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3)There is a 75% correlation between the University of Michigan Consumer COnfidence index and the retail price of gas..........
What follow what? I suspect that the consumer confidence index is influenced by the retail price of gas, which is one of the most "in-your-face" prices that consumers face on a day to day basis. In other words, no way to make money off of this finding.
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Old 10-22-2008, 01:21 PM   #5
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maybe i'll time just right the selling of my houses and buying back into the market at bottom. (working theory: elevator down, escalator up.) though the only thing i've timed well so far is my upcoming 3000 mile roadtrip. at 17 mpg, since i started planning, i've already "saved" almost 200 bucks. hey, that's two nights at a roadside motel. excellent.
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Old 10-22-2008, 02:45 PM   #6
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What follow what? I suspect that the consumer confidence index is influenced by the retail price of gas, which is one of the most "in-your-face" prices that consumers face on a day to day basis. In other words, no way to make money off of this finding.
I just thought it was an interesting state. As the price of gas keeps falling, folks are getting more confidence about the economy, even though its a debacle.........
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