Some info from an economist I saw live yesterday.......

[FinanceDude]

I guess take it for what its worth. His name is Jeff Roach, he worked for B of A and now works at Horizon Investments. There are a few nuggets I gleaned I thought I would share:

1)He doesn't see a recovery until early Summer 2009 at the earliest.

2)Oil should remain low, near $70, because demand is imploding in several large markets.

3)There is a 75% correlation between the University of Michigan Consumer COnfidence index and the retail price of gas..........

4)For every 1% change in the dollar, there's a 7-8% change in the price of oil. So, if the dollar stregthens 1%, the price of oil should drop 7-8%

5)In 2005, up to 52% of all home loans were to people with BELOW median income..........

6)He is adamant that folks should have 10% of their AA in things like commodities and/or natural resources.........

That's the main points. He thinks a 2nd stimulus package is likely. However, in the first stimulus package, Congress brought back favorable depreciation recovery laws, so a lot of companies have incentive to do capital expenditures, as they can take large deductions up front.