Some perspective - Page 3

Nanita8140 · 07-03-2008, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronnieboy

I sure hope not. I wasn't old enough to see or even experience the depression, but from what I have heard/read, thousands of people were standing in cheese lines, not working, skipping meals, when they did eat is was tongue of shoe soup, etc. I haven't seen anything that bad, if anything - around here - the Hummers have slowed down to 10mph over the speed limit

P.S. How do I add an Avatar?

The only lines I've been standing in lately are those at Disney World(and they were long...wait time for some rides was up to 90 minutes)...also, I've been standing in lines at the movies theaters....theaters are still full. That being said, it does not appear that we are anywhere close to being like in the Great Depression. Things are "not good" but neither are they "bad"....perhaps I should interject the word "YET"..."not bad yet". If I had to bet as to what will happen , I think I will place my bet on things stabilizing.....of course this is comming from a person that lived through 5000% inflation during the 1980 in Argentina. I can assure you all that this is nothing(so far).

Moemg · 07-03-2008, 06:03 PM

I was in an investment club during the late 90"s . One of our picks was Oracle and luckily we decided it had become too large a percentage of our portfolio so we sold right before the tech melt down .

HFWR · 07-03-2008, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger

WWSOD

What would Suze Orman do?

Hey she will be in Dallas Aug 15. Maybe I will go see her

I see you're using her photo for an avatar...

NW-Bound · 07-03-2008, 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords

But... but... but... what if this time it's really really different?!?

The oil price worries me more than anything else. We will survive this housing bubble, just like earlier housing bubbles, and the recent dot-com bubble. The earlier energy crises of the 70's were not caused by the fundamental "supply-and-demand" principle. Surely, technology may be able to come to the rescue with alternative energy sources, but it takes time. Once we come out of this period, things may be different. For example, car industry will not be cranking out SUVs as earlier. New houses may be smaller to reduce energy cost, etc...

I just try to be aware of economic trends to steer my investment choices. After waiting in line to buy gas in the early 80's, people switched to small cars, such as the VW Rabbit (remember those?). That didn't last long as 4-cyl cars were slowly replaced by bigger cars. I still remember when the Japanese makers produced few 6-cyl engines, leave alone the behemoth 8-cyl they do now.

I will be very surprised to see gas back to the $2, unless there is a 2nd Great Depression that suppresses all demand. It's all because of the Peak Oil Theory, that is difficult to dismiss.

kumquat · 07-03-2008, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny

The old folks in my dads retirement community are calling it the worst they've ever seen, worse than the depression. Sorry, but thats not what I'm feeling.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29

That's probably because from their perspective, there is nothing more menacing to their well-being than high inflation.

WADR, how many of of the folks in the retirement community remember the depression. They'd have to be born before 1925, making them a minimum of 83. Even then, I'd want them to be 15 in 1930 making them 90+.

I believe one of the worst problems of the depression was deflation. No one would spend a cent if it would buy more next year (although, where my parents grew up eating was a problem). Inflation was a problem in the 70's. I think most of us saw it although not from an ER perspective.

ladelfina · 07-03-2008, 07:34 PM

Quote:

For a while the media hype made you feel like we were going to be attacked daily by mobs of terrorists.

and today is largely different? Now we have "elect Obama and expect more terror attacks" apparently. "We" talk about torture as though it is normal, and people think it's acceptable that a presidential candidate sings "Bomb Iran!" to a snappy pop tune. It's not the country I knew. That's philosophy, however I wouldn't put it past the current wankers to unleash their longed-for Armageddon. Reports are we are already doing covert actions and legislation is up for naval blockades.

I don't know what people are reading but I see bankruptcies up, foreclosures up, unemployment up, jobs down, credit tightening and cash short everywhere.. and my biggest question that no one wants to answer: where are the future growth/earnings going to come from? The US economy is contracting and it's been like pulling teeth the last few months here to get any number of people to admit to even that.

Notmuchlonger · 07-03-2008, 07:50 PM

Where is chicken little when you need him.

ladelfina · 07-03-2008, 08:00 PM

Hah! Chicken Little has already been at my place.. I am putting myself to sleep reading Bernstein on discounting future earnings and contemplating the (since 2002) 43% drop already in the value of VFINX in euros.

Nighty-night, sleep tight, and don't let the bedbugs bite.

brewer12345 · 07-03-2008, 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger

Where is chicken little when you need him.

ladelfina is pinch hitting for him and appears to be very effective at sprinkling chicken droppings around liberally.

newporttony · 07-03-2008, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ladelfina

and today is largely different? Now we have "elect Obama and expect more terror attacks" apparently. "We" talk about torture as though it is normal, and people think it's acceptable that a presidential candidate sings "Bomb Iran!" to a snappy pop tune. It's not the country I knew. That's philosophy, however I wouldn't put it past the current wankers to unleash their longed-for Armageddon. Reports are we are already doing covert actions and legislation is up for naval blockades.

I don't know what people are reading but I see bankruptcies up, foreclosures up, unemployment up, jobs down, credit tightening and cash short everywhere.. and my biggest question that no one wants to answer: where are the future growth/earnings going to come from? The US economy is contracting and it's been like pulling teeth the last few months here to get any number of people to admit to even that.

Strange, but I see multi-million dollar homes selling (albeit at at 15% haircut from the peak), crowded restaurants, and long waits for admission to private schools and for golf club memberships. I see an economy that has slowed a bit, but has not receeded. Maybe it will, but maybe it won't.

If you want to talk politics, I don't see people being hauled off to gulags for regular torturing sessions, but I have noticed that we have not had a terrorist attack on our soil since 9/2001--even though most Americans polled after the attack said they fully expected us to me attacked again.

IMHO, things are not that bad.

Notmuchlonger · 07-03-2008, 08:27 PM

Ah here is the little guy!

Marquette · 07-03-2008, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by statsman

Believing that would actually make investing a lot easier, at least for myself. But I tend to believe that if our portfolio is dropping, someone else's is going up (or at least not dropping nearly as much). Wrong assumption?

Ahh, well then that's simple. Just find out what they're investing in and do the same.

Or, maybe they're losing just as much money but they're happy to if it means they can consolidate power and further steal away the freedoms of the little guy.

I'm reasonably happy with my approach. Eventually I'll die, everything else is the journey to there and odds are pretty good that I'll be able to stay alive even with no money. Then again, I'd be able to keep myself amused in a dirt field with a stick for days on end... your mileage may vary.

brewer12345 · 07-03-2008, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by newporttony

Strange, but I see multi-million dollar homes selling (albeit at at 15% haircut from the peak), crowded restaurants, and long waits for admission to private schools and for golf club memberships. I see an economy that has slowed a bit, but has not receeded. Maybe it will, but maybe it won't.

If you want to talk politics, I don't see people being hauled off to gulags for regular torturing sessions, but I have noticed that we have not had a terrorist attack on our soil since 9/2001--even though most Americans polled after the attack said they fully expected us to me attacked again.

IMHO, things are not that bad.

Shhh.... Don't tell the tinfoil hat crowd that. They are having too much fun watching CNBC, drooling, and contemplating how much Merkins deserve economic doom for some sort of undefined shortcomings.

Notmuchlonger · 07-03-2008, 09:01 PM

Im better off now than I was 10 years ago. I almost feel dirty..

brewer12345 · 07-03-2008, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger

Im better off now than I was 10 years ago. I almost feel dirty..

Filthy Merkin...

Notmuchlonger · 07-03-2008, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345

Filthy Merkin...

Its ok. Soon as I wrote it. I gave myself 20 lashes..

ladelfina · 07-03-2008, 09:17 PM

I didn't bring up the "terrah" stuff, CFB did [but should a third, unprovoked, war NOT be a concern to those here?].

As for the economics, seems like all that is acceptable here is:

newporttony.. permit me to point out that Orange County and especially Newport Beach is not representative of the US or the world. I'm sure it is a very nice place to live, though, and I wish you all the best.

Quote:

Then again, I'd be able to keep myself amused in a dirt field with a stick for days on end... your mileage may vary.

There ya go, Marquette.. that's the spirit! I'll join ya. What kind of stick do you prefer? I'm partial to oak.

Marquette · 07-03-2008, 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ladelfina

There ya go, Marquette.. that's the spirit! I'll join ya. What kind of stick do you prefer? I'm partial to oak.

Pointy. Easier to draw and dig with.

ladelfina · 07-03-2008, 09:40 PM

Hmm, we'll need a knife, though, to sharpen the stick.. so we'll have to discover iron ore and fire.. whew! this is sounding like work!!

How good are your teeth?

07-03-2008, 07:50 PM	#47
Notmuchlonger Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,986	Where is chicken little when you need him. __________________ Call the troops out in a hurry. This is what we've waited for. This is it boys, this is war.

07-03-2008, 08:27 PM	#51
Notmuchlonger Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,986	Ah here is the little guy! __________________ Call the troops out in a hurry. This is what we've waited for. This is it boys, this is war.

07-03-2008, 09:01 PM	#54
Notmuchlonger Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,986	Im better off now than I was 10 years ago. I almost feel dirty.. __________________ Call the troops out in a hurry. This is what we've waited for. This is it boys, this is war.

07-03-2008, 06:03 PM	#42
Moemg Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Sarasota,fl. Posts: 3,088	I was in an investment club during the late 90"s . One of our picks was Oracle and luckily we decided it had become too large a percentage of our portfolio so we sold right before the tech melt down .

07-03-2008, 08:00 PM	#48
ladelfina Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,652	Hah! Chicken Little has already been at my place.. I am putting myself to sleep reading Bernstein on discounting future earnings and contemplating the (since 2002) 43% drop already in the value of VFINX in euros. Nighty-night, sleep tight, and don't let the bedbugs bite.

07-03-2008, 09:40 PM	#59
ladelfina Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,652	Hmm, we'll need a knife, though, to sharpen the stick.. so we'll have to discover iron ore and fire.. whew! this is sounding like work!! How good are your teeth?