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Old 07-03-2008, 05:46 PM   #41
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I sure hope not. I wasn't old enough to see or even experience the depression, but from what I have heard/read, thousands of people were standing in cheese lines, not working, skipping meals, when they did eat is was tongue of shoe soup, etc. I haven't seen anything that bad, if anything - around here - the Hummers have slowed down to 10mph over the speed limit

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The only lines I've been standing in lately are those at Disney World(and they were long...wait time for some rides was up to 90 minutes)...also, I've been standing in lines at the movies theaters....theaters are still full. That being said, it does not appear that we are anywhere close to being like in the Great Depression. Things are "not good" but neither are they "bad"....perhaps I should interject the word "YET"..."not bad yet". If I had to bet as to what will happen , I think I will place my bet on things stabilizing.....of course this is comming from a person that lived through 5000% inflation during the 1980 in Argentina. I can assure you all that this is nothing(so far).
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Old 07-03-2008, 06:03 PM   #42
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I was in an investment club during the late 90"s . One of our picks was Oracle and luckily we decided it had become too large a percentage of our portfolio so we sold right before the tech melt down .
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Old 07-03-2008, 06:07 PM   #43
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WWSOD

What would Suze Orman do? :confused: Hey she will be in Dallas Aug 15. Maybe I will go see her
I see you're using her photo for an avatar...
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Old 07-03-2008, 06:56 PM   #44
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But... but... but... what if this time it's really really different?!?

The oil price worries me more than anything else. We will survive this housing bubble, just like earlier housing bubbles, and the recent dot-com bubble. The earlier energy crises of the 70's were not caused by the fundamental "supply-and-demand" principle. Surely, technology may be able to come to the rescue with alternative energy sources, but it takes time. Once we come out of this period, things may be different. For example, car industry will not be cranking out SUVs as earlier. New houses may be smaller to reduce energy cost, etc...

I just try to be aware of economic trends to steer my investment choices. After waiting in line to buy gas in the early 80's, people switched to small cars, such as the VW Rabbit (remember those?). That didn't last long as 4-cyl cars were slowly replaced by bigger cars. I still remember when the Japanese makers produced few 6-cyl engines, leave alone the behemoth 8-cyl they do now.

I will be very surprised to see gas back to the $2, unless there is a 2nd Great Depression that suppresses all demand. It's all because of the Peak Oil Theory, that is difficult to dismiss.
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Old 07-03-2008, 07:06 PM   #45
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The old folks in my dads retirement community are calling it the worst they've ever seen, worse than the depression. Sorry, but thats not what I'm feeling.
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That's probably because from their perspective, there is nothing more menacing to their well-being than high inflation.
WADR, how many of of the folks in the retirement community remember the depression. They'd have to be born before 1925, making them a minimum of 83. Even then, I'd want them to be 15 in 1930 making them 90+.

I believe one of the worst problems of the depression was deflation. No one would spend a cent if it would buy more next year (although, where my parents grew up eating was a problem). Inflation was a problem in the 70's. I think most of us saw it although not from an ER perspective.
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Old 07-03-2008, 07:34 PM   #46
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For a while the media hype made you feel like we were going to be attacked daily by mobs of terrorists.
and today is largely different? Now we have "elect Obama and expect more terror attacks" apparently. "We" talk about torture as though it is normal, and people think it's acceptable that a presidential candidate sings "Bomb Iran!" to a snappy pop tune. It's not the country I knew. That's philosophy, however I wouldn't put it past the current wankers to unleash their longed-for Armageddon. Reports are we are already doing covert actions and legislation is up for naval blockades.

I don't know what people are reading but I see bankruptcies up, foreclosures up, unemployment up, jobs down, credit tightening and cash short everywhere.. and my biggest question that no one wants to answer: where are the future growth/earnings going to come from? The US economy is contracting and it's been like pulling teeth the last few months here to get any number of people to admit to even that.
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Old 07-03-2008, 07:50 PM   #47
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Where is chicken little when you need him.
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Old 07-03-2008, 08:00 PM   #48
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Hah! Chicken Little has already been at my place.. I am putting myself to sleep reading Bernstein on discounting future earnings and contemplating the (since 2002) 43% drop already in the value of VFINX in euros.

Nighty-night, sleep tight, and don't let the bedbugs bite.
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Old 07-03-2008, 08:05 PM   #49
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Where is chicken little when you need him.
ladelfina is pinch hitting for him and appears to be very effective at sprinkling chicken droppings around liberally.
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Old 07-03-2008, 08:10 PM   #50
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and today is largely different? Now we have "elect Obama and expect more terror attacks" apparently. "We" talk about torture as though it is normal, and people think it's acceptable that a presidential candidate sings "Bomb Iran!" to a snappy pop tune. It's not the country I knew. That's philosophy, however I wouldn't put it past the current wankers to unleash their longed-for Armageddon. Reports are we are already doing covert actions and legislation is up for naval blockades.

I don't know what people are reading but I see bankruptcies up, foreclosures up, unemployment up, jobs down, credit tightening and cash short everywhere.. and my biggest question that no one wants to answer: where are the future growth/earnings going to come from? The US economy is contracting and it's been like pulling teeth the last few months here to get any number of people to admit to even that.

Strange, but I see multi-million dollar homes selling (albeit at at 15% haircut from the peak), crowded restaurants, and long waits for admission to private schools and for golf club memberships. I see an economy that has slowed a bit, but has not receeded. Maybe it will, but maybe it won't.

If you want to talk politics, I don't see people being hauled off to gulags for regular torturing sessions, but I have noticed that we have not had a terrorist attack on our soil since 9/2001--even though most Americans polled after the attack said they fully expected us to me attacked again.

IMHO, things are not that bad.
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Old 07-03-2008, 08:27 PM   #51
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Ah here is the little guy!

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Old 07-03-2008, 08:31 PM   #52
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Believing that would actually make investing a lot easier, at least for myself. But I tend to believe that if our portfolio is dropping, someone else's is going up (or at least not dropping nearly as much). Wrong assumption?
Ahh, well then that's simple. Just find out what they're investing in and do the same.

Or, maybe they're losing just as much money but they're happy to if it means they can consolidate power and further steal away the freedoms of the little guy.

I'm reasonably happy with my approach. Eventually I'll die, everything else is the journey to there and odds are pretty good that I'll be able to stay alive even with no money. Then again, I'd be able to keep myself amused in a dirt field with a stick for days on end... your mileage may vary.
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Old 07-03-2008, 08:54 PM   #53
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Strange, but I see multi-million dollar homes selling (albeit at at 15% haircut from the peak), crowded restaurants, and long waits for admission to private schools and for golf club memberships. I see an economy that has slowed a bit, but has not receeded. Maybe it will, but maybe it won't.

If you want to talk politics, I don't see people being hauled off to gulags for regular torturing sessions, but I have noticed that we have not had a terrorist attack on our soil since 9/2001--even though most Americans polled after the attack said they fully expected us to me attacked again.

IMHO, things are not that bad.
Shhh.... Don't tell the tinfoil hat crowd that. They are having too much fun watching CNBC, drooling, and contemplating how much Merkins deserve economic doom for some sort of undefined shortcomings.
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Old 07-03-2008, 09:01 PM   #54
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Im better off now than I was 10 years ago. I almost feel dirty..
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Old 07-03-2008, 09:03 PM   #55
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Im better off now than I was 10 years ago. I almost feel dirty..
Filthy Merkin...
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Old 07-03-2008, 09:06 PM   #56
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Filthy Merkin...
Its ok. Soon as I wrote it. I gave myself 20 lashes..
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Old 07-03-2008, 09:17 PM   #57
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I didn't bring up the "terrah" stuff, CFB did [but should a third, unprovoked, war NOT be a concern to those here?].

As for the economics, seems like all that is acceptable here is:


newporttony.. permit me to point out that Orange County and especially Newport Beach is not representative of the US or the world. I'm sure it is a very nice place to live, though, and I wish you all the best.

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Then again, I'd be able to keep myself amused in a dirt field with a stick for days on end... your mileage may vary.
There ya go, Marquette.. that's the spirit! I'll join ya. What kind of stick do you prefer? I'm partial to oak.
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Old 07-03-2008, 09:33 PM   #58
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There ya go, Marquette.. that's the spirit! I'll join ya. What kind of stick do you prefer? I'm partial to oak.
Pointy. Easier to draw and dig with.
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Old 07-03-2008, 09:40 PM   #59
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Hmm, we'll need a knife, though, to sharpen the stick.. so we'll have to discover iron ore and fire.. whew! this is sounding like work!!

How good are your teeth?
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Old 07-03-2008, 09:48 PM   #60
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Shhh.... Don't tell the tinfoil hat crowd that. They are having too much fun watching CNBC, drooling, and contemplating how much Merkins deserve economic doom for some sort of undefined shortcomings.

Here's a few recent defined shortcomings:

1) Wall Street pushing the stock maket to unrealistic levels peaking in 2000
2) The Real Estate Industry pushing real estate prices to unrealistic levels peaking in 2006
3) The Entire Mortgage Industry creating and selling unrealistic mortgages
4) Hedge Funds and many others leveraging financial assets 30 times or even more
5) The Government endlessly spending money it doesn't have..... the borrowed money stimulus checks (need I say more)
6) Not doing anything with energy policy 30 years after a serious warning in the 70's
7) The Government fudging economic statistics (my personal favorite)
8 The Govenment bailing out foolish investments and investors
9) Starting a war that wasn't justified and isn't being paid for in an upfront manner (off budget accounting)
10) The world witnessing the reputation of this country in decline
11) Allowing the drastic devaluation of the dollar
12) The Fed lowering rates to unrealisticly low levels to avoid having markets go through natural corrections
13) The non-productive private equity boom based on the unrealistically low interest rates
14) Refusing to work on long term issues like health care costs; rising college costs; and social security, medicare, and medicaid underfunding; immigration
15) Long term stagnant wages for the middle class
16) A decline in the overall standard of living in the US
17) The decline of DB pensions, switch to riskier asset pensions
18 Recent across the board commodity inflation
19) State and local governments getting in financial trouble
20) Total lack of faith in Congress
21) Total lack of faith in the President
22) Peak oil
23) Obama..the unknown entity
Should I go on..................

Everyone could argue about a few, but "maybe" the time for some economic pain is upon us? It's enough to bounce a few chills off my hat and down my back as I see my portfolio (even though very low risk) decline. It's getting pretty hard to wear those rose colored Kudlow glasses.

I just put in the bottom!
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