Some perspective

...In the 70s, bond interest and wages were rising with inflation, now they are not.
1987 and 2000-02 bothered me not in the least. ...
Ladelfina, hope you won't think I'm being picky here ;) but we can benefit from knowing what nasty things happened in the past. Bonds were a bad bet in the 70's, they had negative real returns for several years. That's why in the 80's and 90's they were such a good investment as they overcorrected in the early 80's and had very high positive real returns for many years. Note I'm emphasizing real and not nominal returns. We had a spate of pretty poor bond returns around 2003. I don't have a good source for real rates in the 70's or 80's but we have TIPS now to show the current years:
St. Louis Fed: Series: DFII5, 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity
I personally think real returns will increase in the future and so would try to stick with shorter term bonds. Sold my 10yr TIPS in January -- that was too early as I now know.

Yes wages were rising with inflation in the 70's but taxes, which were not indexed, made those real increases negative unless you got a big promotion. The only investment that I had that worked out in the 70's was my house in Silicon Valley -- don't know about the rest of the country though.

I will go out on a limb and say that I think this inflation will pass away. Either the Fed will raise rates in response or something will happen to reverse the upward commodity trend. The Fed is very cognizant of the 70's lessons. My guess is the trend will reverse within 9 months after the elections. But don't hold me to this :).
 
Perhaps a good stiff one 3 times a day. (Talking about Jim Beam of Course).;)

Whew! Thanks for the clarification!

Looks to me like the world is populated with optimists and pessimists, in varying degrees. I imagine some will worry more than others, and many will do things they'll regret later.

What I'm absolutely sure of is that none of us have any idea whats going to happen. Or that a pessimist will make an optimist like-minded or vice-versa.

What I'm pretty darn sure of is that if you're making decisions and moves based on whats happened over the last few months or a year or two rather than the ones planned out over decades...you'll probably be sorry about that.

What I'm really darn sure is that we wont gain much by kicking **** all over each others shoes.

As far as annuities go, I'm only aware of one or two guys that think they're all evil for everyone. Last time I did a poll something like 95% of the users here said they'd consider one or bought one.

So once again, perhaps the criticism of the borg collective is a bit overdone.
 
Ladelfina. You say your AA is fine but what is? You are correct interest rates on bonds are going up like they did in the 70s. Instead they are performing normally;, a recession/slowing leads to a drop in interest rates, increasing the value of bonds and mitigating the effects of dropping equities.

I just calculated my June 07 to June 08 portfolio and I am "only" down 12.1%, (including withdrawals of about 3%) Now this despite making three critical mistakes in the market the last year. Taking out a Home Equity loan to invest in the market, deliberately reducing my AA from 70/30 equities to 80/20 and buying financial stocks much too early. Now I suppose that it is possible for a retiree to screw up worse than I did but it isn't easy. A couch potato portfolio including withdrawals is down 6.5-7%. I understand you have currency risk which has certainly been painful. It seems to me that if you had >10% loses and it bothers you than either A. your AA is quite aggressive >75% equities, and you aren't as risk tolerant as you thought or B. you made some bad investment choices (like me) and you should re think your investment strategy.
 
i occasionally like to get a second opinion ... and refer to 1) the asset allocation of vanguard's asset allocation fund, and 2) morningstar's market valuation graph. both of these need, of course, to be taken with a large grain of salt but do distill what i expect to be reasonably informed opinion (more informed than my own).

I too peek at VG's AA fund -100% stock, and -13.12% YTD - talk about standing on go waiting for throttle up!

So where is Harry Truman now that we need him. I may get frightened if BUD loses their battle to stay American - The World May Be Flat but sheesh.

Hurry up just stand there and psst Wellesley the Norwegian widow is still getting her dividends - but a few thousand more points may bring on some twinge and pucker.

May have to send for True Grit on NetFlix to buck myself up.

heh heh heh - meanwhile Vanguard's computers do their thing with my Target 2015 whether I look or not. :cool:. I did stay under $300 for fireworks this - subconsciously cutting back a tad.
 
I personally think real returns will increase in the future and so would try to stick with shorter term bonds.

Could you share your reasoning on this Isbcal?

Ha
 
Now this despite making three critical mistakes in the market the last year. Taking out a Home Equity loan to invest in the market, deliberately reducing my AA from 70/30 equities to 80/20 and buying financial stocks much too early. Now I suppose that it is possible for a retiree to screw up worse than I did but it isn't easy.
We should form a support group...
 
ok clif, MAYBE I am panicking too much for the scenario as it stands right now, which is what people seem to be reacting to. I am not worried by this drop per se (for me -11.8% ytd incl. w/d). How bad could you or I have "screwed up" if we both come so close to VG (which if it is VAAPX I see it at -11.9%; I couldn't find the stock/bond ratio there)? But I am trying to look ahead and to see whether I can take measures that will protect me to some extent in a very bad, very long contraction with continued decline of the dollar beyond the 40% it has declined over the past eight years.

Where I screwed up is not in asset class allocation, it's on the currency end in hindsight. Because I assumed currencies would just go up or down maybe ±10-20% around a sort of fuzzy mean. Having a paid-off house in euros I'm far from being as bad a loser as I could have been.. imagine have to pay the rent in USD!! Brrr. I could move back to the states, buy a cheap house and be ahead in absolute NW (having sold high leaving, and selling high again in euros) but I don't want to affront the drain of $12k health care and $3-8k prop. taxes which in the long run would eat up twice that gain. Here my health care is basically free and prop. tax (with new legislation) is zero.

I'm really not wanting to sell/rebalance/cash out any more than will keep me under the AMT. All I need is a 28% hit on CG (lots) to add insult to injury! ;) :) Between taxes, exchange commissions, price inflation (here it's 3.75%), etc. every option seems riskier than the next, including holding pat.

Let's pretend for a minute the financial world as we know it is NOT going to come to an end => Compared to most people I am doing great. For a little while I had the best of both worlds! Maybe it's the pain of seeing our plans here scaled back so much that hurts the most, whereas if I had been poking along in my old life it would be far easier to cope.

Ok, so I will have to keep the old crummy kitchen and the crumbling blue cement hole that might have been a real pool or fishpond. Ok, so I will take up teaching English. Ok, so DH will have to scrounge for a full-time software gig in an illiquid job market that hires only under-35s, instead of the odd project for pocket money. We can move to an apt. We have options and thank God we are 48/49 and not 68/69 with half our egg. But I looked at DH eating a crappy industrial ice-cream sandwich he bought at the supermarket and thought "geez, that cost a dollar-and-a-quarter!" I'm going mad. I'm becoming my mother.

I asked here long ago if anyone knew how currencies behaved, whether they tend to average themselves out in the long run, but no one knew. I see more bad news ahead for the dollar and I guess that's my main preoccupation because it magnifies every loss, and I also see more losses ahead. I think I am quite calm for someone who has lost, not 12% but effectively 52% of my projected day-to-day purchasing power (not counting inflation on either side, just currency loss).

What do crappy industrial ice-cream sandwiches cost where you are?
 
Boy! I always learn something in this forum.

I have as much in after-tax accts as in before-tax, so always tweak my before-tax first to avoid taxes. I am lucky.

But then, I found that even of some of my long-time held mutual funds that have gains, the gains are not a whole lot more than reinvested dividends that I already paid taxes on. So, I could have sold some to rebalance too.

I now appreciate your frustration in earlier posts. For a short while, I entertained the idea of retiring in Malta (they speak English), but did not appreciate the currency conversion problem. I now know it's a bit more complicated. Talk about Euro/dollar rate, I have some foreign funds (mostly European stocks) plus European ADRs. They seem to do well the last few years. But if I convert to Euro, perhaps they might just be flat, i.e. showing no gain at all?

Could you have hedged against currency by investing on the European market? Just a naive question.
 
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ok clif, MAYBE I am panicking too much for the scenario as it stands right now, which is what people seem to be reacting to. I am not worried by this drop per se (for me -11.8% ytd incl. w/d). How bad could you or I have "screwed up" if we both come so close to VG (which if it is VAAPX I see it at -11.9%; I couldn't find the stock/bond ratio there)? But I am trying to look ahead and to see whether I can take measures that will protect me to some extent in a very bad, very long contraction with continued decline of the dollar beyond the 40% it has declined over the past eight years.

Where I screwed up is not in asset class allocation, it's on the currency end in hindsight. Because I assumed currencies would just go up or down maybe ±10-20% around a sort of fuzzy mean. Having a paid-off house in euros I'm far from being as bad a loser as I could have been.. imagine have to pay the rent in USD!! Brrr. I could move back to the states, buy a cheap house and be ahead in absolute NW (having sold high leaving, and selling high again in euros) but I don't want to affront the drain of $12k health care and $3-8k prop. taxes which in the long run would eat up twice that gain. Here my health care is basically free and prop. tax (with new legislation) is zero.

I'm really not wanting to sell/rebalance/cash out any more than will keep me under the AMT. All I need is a 28% hit on CG (lots) to add insult to injury! ;) :) Between taxes, exchange commissions, price inflation (here it's 3.75%), etc. every option seems riskier than the next, including holding pat.

Let's pretend for a minute the financial world as we know it is NOT going to come to an end => Compared to most people I am doing great. For a little while I had the best of both worlds! Maybe it's the pain of seeing our plans here scaled back so much that hurts the most, whereas if I had been poking along in my old life it would be far easier to cope.

Ok, so I will have to keep the old crummy kitchen and the crumbling blue cement hole that might have been a real pool or fishpond. Ok, so I will take up teaching English. Ok, so DH will have to scrounge for a full-time software gig in an illiquid job market that hires only under-35s, instead of the odd project for pocket money. We can move to an apt. We have options and thank God we are 48/49 and not 68/69 with half our egg. But I looked at DH eating a crappy industrial ice-cream sandwich he bought at the supermarket and thought "geez, that cost a dollar-and-a-quarter!" I'm going mad. I'm becoming my mother.

I asked here long ago if anyone knew how currencies behaved, whether they tend to average themselves out in the long run, but no one knew. I see more bad news ahead for the dollar and I guess that's my main preoccupation because it magnifies every loss, and I also see more losses ahead. I think I am quite calm for someone who has lost, not 12% but effectively 52% of my projected day-to-day purchasing power (not counting inflation on either side, just currency loss).

What do crappy industrial ice-cream sandwiches cost where you are?

Again, I completely understand the pain and I have been wondering myself how I would hedge against large currency moves year over year if we retired in Europe. And the best I could come up with was to hold half my assets in dollars and half in Euros. When the dollar goes down, I would spend my assets denominated in Euros and let my dollar assets accumulate, untouched. When the dollar goes back up, I would sell some of those dollar assets that have accumulated and replenish the Euro stash. The problem with this theory is that currency cycles are typically pretty long (10-20 years), so you need enough assets to survive the multi-year down cycle.

The other option I was pondering was to invest our money in an all-world index fund (which happen to have about half US assets and half foreign assets). It sounds like it could be useful to smooth out currency fluctuations while providing diversification.
 
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.... I'm becoming my mother.
Hope she was a good role model. Many of us are too hard on our parents even in our memories ... and also too hard on ourselves.
I asked here long ago if anyone knew how currencies behaved, whether they tend to average themselves out in the long run, but no one knew. I see more bad news ahead for the dollar and I guess that's my main preoccupation because it magnifies every loss, and I also see more losses ahead. I think I am quite calm for someone who has lost, not 12% but effectively 52% of my projected day-to-day purchasing power (not counting inflation on either side, just currency loss).
I really don't know where the dollar is going. You've probably seen this Fed chart before:
St. Louis Fed: Series: TWEXMMTH, Trade Weighted Exchange Index: Major Currencies
Some people would be tempted to use technical analysis on such a chart to try to devine where the dollar is going. For those rooting for the dollar the Economist has said that the Euro is overvalued vs the dollar. Last I recall they said it was something like 25% overvalued based on Purchasing Power Parity (don't ask me to explain PPP but maybe Wiki has something). Also one fund that I own Dodge & Cox International has decided to hedge the Euro, so they feel it could fall and want to remain neutral on currency risk there. Hope that helps a little.

Regarding ice cream, we buy Skinny Cow ice creams here -- not too many calories.
 
To NWBound: no, not naive..
If you mean "investing IN the European market", at the time I felt I was already overweight in int'l. stocks (>50-60%, back when that was very racy). Buying & holding and fully invested, using the cash to build up more in (supposed) US "blue chips" since that's where my allocation was weak at the time.

If "investing ON the European market" you mean with an account overseas there were a number of factors:

1.) Pollyanna (ducking) prejudice: "the US is strong; the US is best; our economy can't be beat; we are more transparent, etc." I drank that Kool-Aid at the time.

2.) having one foot in each world and wanting not to burn all my bridges. I fell down the rabbit hole into Italy and wanted the rabbit hole there to get back up and out to the 'real' world. But things got inverted and now the US seems wackier than here.

3.) convenience factor, dealing with institutions that 'make sense' to me. In 2000-2002 when we were planning this move and trying to figure our lives out, Italy didn't have accessible online brokerages, or really any pure brokerages that I know of. Investing is done through banks, and the banks are not that customer-friendly. They love to put people in (wait for it..) annuities and oddball equities mixstruments that guarantee a maximum/minimum linked to the performance of some basket of stocks (kind of like a hybrid between an annuity, a managed fund, and an ETF). I wasn't desirous of having to physically go to the bank and wrangle with a rep to make individual stock trades. Only a tiny minority of Italians own any stocks at all (a couple years ago I heard 5%) so there's not been the experience or the commodification of trading aspect on the part of institutions.

4.) Expense. Banks here have also traditionally had ridiculously high fees, even fees to close the account. You could leave money in savings, forget about it, come back later and find an invoice for fees in arrears because the fees ate all your money. This has changed somewhat lately with reforms, and now there are a few American-style online brokerage/bank operations with inexpensive trades and low fees (or waived fees with a higher balance). This has all developed just in the last couple of years.

5.) Ah! and don't forget, the euro was brand spanking new in 1999-2000. What was its track record? The monetary union could cede at any time. Everyone was skeptical, including the europeans, about its future. The Italians were furious at the euro inflation and the Second Coming of Berlusca in 2001 was threatening euro stability on a couple of levels. Who knew that the tables would be turned in such a short time?

6) House purchase. Sold my US house owned outright and put almost all the value of that into a house here, making one big cash transfer. There was an amount left over to live on for a year, year and a half as well, before I had to start withdrawing from the US. The house purchase at the time looked to me to be a whopping big euro investment (in fact it was 1/3 of our egg).

7) I couldn't really have foreseen that • the US would go to war and that • people would go SO much into debt to buy houses. I turn my back for ONE minute and you guys break the country..! WTF! ;)

8.) In the interim, no worries. I call Schwab; they send money. In 3/4/5 doses per year, so I figured I was kind of DCA'ing as I went along and investments doing ok so as long as I had more dollars I wasn't as concerned as I should have been that they were buying less... until I started hearing more about the housing crisis, and started to investigate more what is behind it. Now my fear for the dollar is pretty serious.

I'm not sure what would have been better.. IF I had been watching continuously then maybe I could have "done something" and adjusted??.. yet now many recommend I should just take a chill pill. But I'm the one responsible for the money and I feel I would let DH down if I can't avert collision with a possible oncoming train.

=====
In hindsight, I would have done two things differently. This is not 20/20-type hindsight on my particular situation, just my biggest recommendations for retirees looking to live in another country.

a.) buy an "average" abode. I was tempted to buy a house about 80% of the then-dollar value of the one I left behind, without taking into consideration the local std. of living. It's a very nice stone house, with a big yard. It's huge by Italian standards, and small by McMansion standards.. 4BR, 3 bath. The problem was we wanted a detached house, not an apt. condo, and those are few and far between on the market here. Anyway your wallet will thank you, you will fit in better with the locals, and you will have lower expenses in taxes, heating (ouch!, it's our biggest expense after food) and maintenance.

b.) make sure you have a firm timeline. Think hard and decide if this is a move for 10 years only, for 20, or for forever. Then try to adjust your investments and currencies accordingly AND adjust your mindset. We were just 'winging it' and have always been figuring "well, we could go back to the US, so..." but that is really deadly on more than one level: it's psychologically problematic because you are not fully invested emotionally in the new surroundings - they are 'temporary' and so you don't always devote attention to the right things, and financially because you could be blindsided like me. Of course if you have a really whopping amount of money you can do as you like.. I'm just talking about a modest retirement. I have heard of a couple of expats who retired on fixed USD pensions and have been forced back to the US due to exchange rate woes; you don't want to be one of those statistics.
 
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Could you share your reasoning on this Isbcal?

Ha
Well the long term average for real rates on intermediate bonds is about 2.3%. The current 5yr TIPS is 0.5%. Eventually (who knows how long?) I'd expect to see real rates back up around the averages. Until then staying short term might avoid loosing some $'s especially if rates go up quickly. Seems hard to believe but 5yr TIPS were around 2.3% as recently as late August of last year.

I'm just tending to follow a strategy outlined by Larry Swedroe where one sells 10yr TIPS when real rates are very low and stays in shorter term bonds until rates are at or above average. Of course, you could just buy 10yr TIPS at those better rates and hold. This is a little more active strategy and more risky too.
 
Hope she was a good role model. Many of us are too hard on our parents even in our memories ... and also too hard on ourselves.

Thanks! She's a scrappy gal, and a partial role model for my frugality.
1980s when I'd started working -and shopping- she eyes my purchase: "I NEVER paid FIFTY DOLLARS for a PAIR OF SHOES IN MY LIFE!"
Me: "yeah, ma.. but you have ten pairs of $5 Kmart shoes instead so :p"

I inherited the shoe-shopping gene, too, but I have recently undergone therapy for that.

:D :angel:


As for the PPP, I subscribe to the Economist and am all over that. It does seem to be descriptive rather than prescriptive; its most famous element is the "Big Mac Index" which tracks the prices in various currencies of this single world-wide commodity item. They only do it every 6 months or so, but I should really go back and study its history to see if I can spot any correlation to my life. You also have to think both sides of the comparison: is the euro overvalued or is the dollar undervalued? There's doesn't seem to really be a "right" answer! I think it's a fairly new conceit though, maybe only a couple of years old. Thanks for reminding me of it.

Anyway, after they fix US companies up with the foreign accounting rules that will pave the way for the global currency the one-world-order folks are hankering for and this will all be moot. [See! after all my explications you almost started to think I was sane! ..gotcha!]
 
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About investing IN/ON European market, I meant both, and you addressed both.

Your post should be on the must-read list for people whose only knowledge of retiring in Europe is acquired through watching "Under the Tuscan sun" and reading books by Peter Mayle (like me!). Not that I would consider Italy, the language barrier being most formidable to myself (What verb gets conjugated to manchi as in Mi Manchi?). But France, and particularly Malta beckon to yours truly. Not so fast now! And here you are, with an Italian husband, and apparently know the language yourself, and have these problems.

About the Euro/dollar conversion, I have read/heard from pundits (what they are worth) that the ratio had at least stabilized, and started to come back. So, last month I sold my European ADRs such as Unilever to raise cash. Last I looked, they have been down since I sold, but so have other US stocks.

In my opinion, the damage has been done to your portfolio, and in my own experience, when I couldn't stand the loss anymore and bailed, that was usually when things turned around. I survived mostly from my mistakes by doing a little at a time, to limit my mistakes to smaller ones, rather a huge one I couldn't live with. Just my 1.3 cents (converted to Euro).
 
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ladelfina - I don't always have time to post a response, and often don't think I have anything meaningful to add (although sometimes that doesn't stop me!), but just wanted to say that I have picked up a lot of good information from your posts and enjoy your perspective (both geographic and otherwise).

My long-terms plans involve living in the EU so one of these days I'll have to go back, search for an read more of your posts, and then pick your brains :)
 
You also have to think both sides of the comparison: is the euro overvalued or is the dollar undervalued? There's doesn't seem to really be a "right" answer! I think it's a fairly new conceit though, maybe only a couple of years old. Thanks for reminding me of it.

May be they are both overvalued - only the euro more so, and it's less about euro vs dollar and more about euro/dollar vs developing world currencies.

The Economist BigMac index is interesting but not useful. Investing in currencies is a dangerous game, but if I were in euroland right now I would be looking at US$ fixed income, and for equities a healthy dose of emerging markets.

Michael
 
What verb gets conjugated to manchi as in Mi Manchi?

Mancare is the verb infinitive. But the structure for 'mancare' (to miss) and also 'piacere' (to please, which is used for "like") is passive on the part of the speaker. [There must be a technical grammar term to categorize this kind of verb, but I don't know it.]

So *I* don't miss YOU.. YOU are missing to me, so the second person plural or singular is the verb conjugation to use.

Io manco a te = Io ti manco = Ti manco* = You miss me. Verb is first person.
Tu manchi a me = Tu mi manchi = Mi manchi* = I miss you. Verb is second person.
Gli spaghetti mi piacciono = The (plural) spaghetti are pleasing to me = I like spaghetti! Verb is third person plural.
*Since the verb conjugation contains information about the subject, the subject is often left out.

MichaelB, thanks for the advice. Upping the fixed income sounds good and I'm strong in emerging markets. It's confronting the cap gains of 20 years that could be gruesome if I really re-structured my holdings the way I'd want to now.

Also, I don't want people to get the wrong idea and decide my financial system concerns merely 'sour grapes' just because I am in a euro-bind at the moment. They are two separate issues; one merely caused me to have looked into the other. If the shoe were on the other foot currency-wise I probably wouldn't have had REASON to investigate the gross inadequacies of the current capital markets, but that doesn't make me any less convinced that their infrastructure is cracking.
 
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...It's confronting the cap gains of 20 years that could be gruesome if I really re-structured my holdings the way I'd want to now.
This may not help at all but don't forget that for 2008 - 2010 the cap gains tax up to the top of the 15% bracket is ZERO.

P.S. Have enjoyed your posts. Fascinating situation.
 
Mancare is the verb infinitive.

I loved the song "Mi Manchi" as rendered by Andrea Bocelli though not understanding a single line of lyrics, hence had looked up the meaning of its title. I saw the complications as you describe, and quickly decided that my chance of learning Italian with the few brain cells I have left was zilch. I have a tough enough time reviving my French.

Just a diversion ...
 
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